Brazil steel quota unfilled at period's end

: Metals
25/10/21

About 30pc of the Brazilian steel import quota will be left unfilled when the current four-month quota period ends on 23 October, data from foreign trade secretariat Secex show.

Unused volumes will not roll over to the next period from 24 October-23 February.

Importers filled 293,200 metric tonnes (t) of the 497,130t available as of 15 October, Secex data show. The quota allows steel to enter the country under reduced tariffs of 10-13pc. Volumes above the threshold are subject to a 25pc duty.

Quota consumption picked up as the first of three terms approached its end. Buyers filled over 11,000t of quota-related steel in 8–15 October, more than double the average of 5,000 t/week.

Demand for coated steel products was the strongest among the 19 products available under the regime. They accounted for nearly 9,000t of the weekly imports.

Buyers used 83pc of the 293,239t allocated for three coated products, with eight days left in the period. Import licenses for smaller consumers were exhausted within the first three weeks of the current term.

Demand for hot-rolled products was the weakest, with only 40pc of the quota filled by 15 October.

"The domestic market can meet demand for HRC, but we still rely on imported HDG," a buy-side source said.

Total imports fell by 32pc on the year to 446,000t in September. January-September import volumes rose by nearly 10pc to 5mn t despite the two consecutive monthly drops.

By Isabel Filgueiras

Brazil steel import quotas					metric tonnes
Product	Full Quota	Consumed by 8-Oct	Difference on week	Balance by 8-Oct	Share consumed (%)
Hot-rolled
HRC, ≥600mm wide, 4.75–10mm thick	1,285	235	0	1,050	18.3
HRC, ≥600mm wide, 3-4.75mm thick	3,111	2,003	0	1,108	64.4
HRC, ≥600mm wide, ≤3mm thick, ≥275 MPa	9,520	6,853	0	0	72.0
HRC, ≥600mm wide, ≤3mm thick	23,490	5,405	0	18,085	23.0
HRC, ≥600mm wide	9,798	4,360	106	5,438	44.5
Flat-rolled, ≥600mm wide	468	181	0	287	38.6
Cold rolled
CRC, ≥600mm wide, 1-3mm thick	47,950	36,409	578	11,541	75.9
CRC, ≥600mm wide, 0.5-1mm thick	36,255	25,504	317	10,751	70.3
CRC, ≥600mm wide	9,273	9,066	21	207	97.8
Galvanized
HDG, ≥600mm wide, <4.75mm	144,286	109,153	1,613	35,133	75.7
GL, ≥600mm wide	147,038	132,070	7,076	14,968	89.8
HDG, ≥600mm wide	1,915	1,493	0	422	78.0
Wire rod
Wire rod, circular section <14mm dia	32,535	23,545	1,413	8,990	72.4
Tubes
Seamless tubes ( oil, gas industry)	6,295	3,043	0	3,252	48.3
Submerged arc welding steel pipes, >406.4mm OD	490	179	1	311	36.5
Welded circular steel pipes, >406.4mm OD	420	73	0	347	17.3
Welded circular (oil, gas industry)	1,679	667	0	1,012	39.7
Beams
I-beam, ≥80mm	17,121	4,480	34	12,641	26.2
H-beam, ≥80mm	4,201	1,086	29	3,115	25.9
Source: Siscomex

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25/12/17

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil

25/12/16

Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil

Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazilian steel output may drop in 2026 as lower-priced imports keep pressure on the domestic market, industry chamber Aco Brasil said. The country's steel output will fall to 32.4mn metric tonnes(t) in 2026, down by 2.2pc from a year earlier, driven by a 10pc climb in imports to 6.6mn t in the period. These figures exclude the effects of anti-dumping duties expected to take effect in the first half of the year, Aco Brasil said. "Our mills are operating at a 66pc capacity rate because of predatory imports, but we should be at around 80–85pc output capacity", Aco's executive president Marco Polo de Mello Lopes said in a press conference on 16 December. Imports will also weigh on domestic sales, with shipments expected to decline to 20.8mn t next year, down by 1.7pc from 2025, the association said. Imports are expected to reach a record 6.6mn t, up by 3.9pc from the previous all-time high of 6.4mn t projected for 2025, Aco Brasil said. Apparent consumption, the sum of production and imports minus exports, will increase by 1pc on the year to 27mn t in 2026, mainly driven by rising import levels. Revised 2025 projections The chamber has cut its 2025 projection for import growth from 19pc to 7.5pc because domestic price declines are curbing a sharper rise in foreign metal. The revised outlook now sees rolled steel imports at 5.7mn t, up by 20pc instead of the previously estimated 32pc. Imports have already hit an all-time high of 6mn year-to-date November 2025, up by 7pc year on year. Total import volumes may increase to 6.4mn t by year-end, according to Aco Brasil. Despite reaching record levels, import inflows lost traction in the second half of the year. As a result, Aco Brasil's initial projection of 7mn t in imports for the year will likely fail to materialize. In addition to price declines, Brazil's quota policy helped reduce import volumes, sources told Argus . The regime imposes a 25pc tariff on volumes that exceed the quota threshold for 19 rolled steel products. Importers also became wary of anti-dumping duties set to take effect in a couple of months. Seaborne trade has become riskier, as duties of up to $600/t could apply upon discharge at Brazilian ports, market participants said. New anti-dumping duties could reverse import growth, with volumes likely to fall instead of rise if the measures take effect. Whether this will be enough to lift production levels remains uncertain. Aco Brasil has also revised its 2025 output outlook, now projecting a 2.2pc drop to 33.1mn t, compared with a previous estimate of a 0.8pc decline to 33.6mn t. Production cuts deepened despite imports falling short of expectations throughout the year, suggesting that factors beyond imports may be driving the reduction. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

25/12/16

US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

Washington, 16 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US House of Representatives have overcome an initial obstacle to passing a marquee permitting overhaul bill after committing to vote on key amendments that would strip out potential benefits for offshore wind. Republicans in the House voted 215-209 in a vote on Tuesday to approve a rule that will dictate the terms of debate for votes later this week on the SPEED Act, which has become the focus of bipartisan efforts to fast-track the permitting process for pipelines, electric transmission lines, railroads and other infrastructure. A group of far-right conservatives initially voted against the rule, but most reversed course during the vote in exchange for revisions that have yet to be made public. The Tuesday vote was one of the last remaining hurdles to House passage of the SPEED Act, which is expected to pick up some Democratic votes when it comes up for a final vote later this week. The House majority typically is responsible for putting up all the votes for a rule, meaning it would only take a few Republicans to block bill debate. Republicans were uncertain they would have enough votes for the rule, as far-right conservatives such as US representative Andy Harris (R-Maryland) and others were lobbying for changes. On Monday, US representative August Pfluger (R-Texas) urged attendees of a conference to put as "much effort as you possibly can" into persuading wavering Republicans to support the permitting bill. Pfluger is the chair of the Republican Study Commission, a caucus that represents a majority of House Republicans. "Go talk to them and let them know how important this is," Pfluger said during an event organized by the think tank the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions. Ahead of the vote, an industry coalition on Tuesday released a joint letter offering "strong support" for the bill. Among the signatories were the American Petroleum Institute, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Association of American Railroads and the US LNG Association. President Donald Trump has yet to take an explicit position on the SPEED Act, but administration officials are optimistic permitting legislation could be enacted. "I think we are at a time where the chance of a real permitting reform bill is higher maybe than it's ever been," US energy secretary Chris Wright said at the event on Monday. The SPEED Act would focus on the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), a decades-old law that requires federal agencies to prepare environmental reviews of infrastructure projects. Pipeline companies and renewable energy developers alike blame the law for costly delays, both because of the time it takes for agencies to issue reviews and then the risks that permits will be thrown out because of lawsuits. The bill would narrow the scope of environmental reviews, aligning with a unanimous US Supreme Court ruling this summer. But the bill's most significant changes would make permits more durable. Even if a court found a NEPA review was flawed, the bill would keep permits intact during further analysis. And in a last-minute change, the bill would offer more permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals. That could protect pipeline permits such as the now-canceled Keystone XL pipeline, while also stopping Trump from halting more offshore wind projects. But the permit certainty language drew concern from far-right conservatives who oppose offshore wind. House Republicans in response agreed to vote on an amendment sponsored by Harris and others that would remove the "permit certainty" changes. Two other amendment votes also backed by Harris would stop expedited permitting treatment in the SPEED Act for offshore wind or any project that Trump has sought to block. Passage of those amendments could cost some Democratic support for the bill. Even if the bill passes, it is expected to be subject to major changes in the US Senate to attract enough support from Democrats to prevent a filibuster. Senate Democrats are hoping to insert language that would prevent what they describe as a "solar ban" being enforced by the Trump administration. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals

25/12/16

Recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey scrap deals

London, 16 December (Argus) — A summary of the most recent deep-sea and short-sea cfr Turkey ferrous scrap deals seen by Argus. Ferrous scrap short-sea trades (average composition price, cif Marmara) Date Volume, t Price, $ Shipment Buyer Seller Composition Index relevant 10-Dec 3,000 349 (80:20) December Marmara Romania HMS 1/2 80:20 Y 8-Dec 5,000 355 (80:20) December Izmir Adriatic HMS 1/2 80:20 Y Ferrous scrap deep-sea trades (average composition price, cfr Turkey) Date Volume, t Price, $ Shipment Buyer Seller Composition Index relevant 11-Dec 30,000 360 (80:20) January Marmara Cont Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred N 10-Dec 20,000 356 (80:20) January Marmara UK HMS 1/2 80:20, shred N 9-Dec 30,000 362.50 (80:20) January Marmara Cont Europe HMS 1/2 80:20 Y 5-Dec 30,000 367 (80:20) January Izmir Cont Europe HMS 1/2 80:20 N 5-Dec 40,000 370 (80:20) January Iskdenderun USA HMS 1/2 80:20, shred N 2-Dec 30,000 360 (80:20) January Izmir Cont Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred Y 2-Dec 30,000 362 (80:20) January Izmir Cont Europe HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, P&S Y 2-Dec 40,000 368 (80:20) January Izmir USA HMS 1/2 80:20, shred Y 2-Dec 40,000 365 (80:20) January Iskdenderun Baltics HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, P&S Y 1-Dec 30,000 358 (80:20) January Marmara UK HMS 1/2 80:20, shred, bonus, new cuttings Y Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US adds 64,000 jobs in November, jobless rate climbs

25/12/16

US adds 64,000 jobs in November, jobless rate climbs

Houston, 16 December (Argus) — The US added more jobs than expected in November after sharp losses in October fueled by government job cuts, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest in four years. The US added 64,000 nonfarm jobs in November, more than the 50,000 anticipated by economists surveyed by Trading Economics. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6pc, up from 4.4pc in September and the highest since September 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. The US lost 105,000 jobs in October, largely due to earlier federal job cuts, according to data that had been delayed because of the 43-day government shutdown that ended on 12 November. Job creation in November was largely in line with average growth since April, BLS said, marking an ongoing slowdown in hiring from earlier in the year. "The labor market remains weak, but the pace of deterioration probably is too slow to spur the [Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee] FOMC to ease again in January," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note after the report was released. After the report, CME's FedWatch Tool showed a 26.6pc probability the FOMC will cut its target rate by a quarter point at its next meeting in January, compared with 24.4pc odds on Monday. The FOMC cut its target rate by a quarter point last week to 3.5-3.75pc, its third such cut of the year, and it penciled in only one such cut each for 2026 and 2027. Employment rose in health care and construction in November. Federal government jobs fell by 6,000 in November, following estimated job losses of 162,000 in October, as some employees who accepted deferred resignation came off payrolls. Federal government employment was down by 271,000 from a peak in January after the administration of President Donald Trump began slashing jobs as part of his effort to cut the federal workforce, even as courts and federal unions pushed back, delaying and limiting the impacts. Manufacturing lost 5,000 jobs in November following losses of 9,000 in October, BLS said. Transportation and warehousing lost 18,000 jobs in November. Leisure and hospitality lost 12,000 jobs after gains of 16,000 in October. Construction added 28,000 jobs in November. Mining and construction lost 4,000 jobs in November. Changes in nonfarm job growth for August and September were revised lower by a combined 33,000 jobs, with September revised down to 108,000 jobs added from 119,000 in the initial estimate. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil steel quota unfilled at period's end

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