Indonesia's cobalt supply has continued to grow, while prices have hit their highest level in over three years, driven by persistent feedstock shortages resulting from export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to Xu Aidong, chief expert at Chinese information provider Antaike.
"Global actual cobalt feedstock supply will drop to 198,000t of metal equivalent in 2025, down by 38pc from 2024, due to the DRC's cobalt export restrictions, although feedstock production reached 288,000t of metal equivalent during the period," Xu told delegates at the 2025 Nickel and Cobalt Industry Conference in Lanzhou city in northwest China's Gansu province.
Indonesian cobalt supply increased to 44,000t of metal equivalent this year from 34,000t in 2024 and is projected to continue rising to 90,000t by 2030, indicating reduced reliance on DRC-sourced cobalt feedstock.
The DRC halted cobalt feedstock exports over 22 February-15 October, and later introduced limited export quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 and through 2026–27.
Global refined output is expected to fall to 208,000t of metal equivalent in 2025, down by 19pc from a year earlier, Xu said. China's cobalt output will drop by 21pc on the year to 162,000t of metal equivalent, while overseas production will decrease by 9.8pc to 46,000t of metal equivalent.
Global cobalt consumption is projected to rise by 2.8pc on the year to 215,000t of metal equivalent in 2025, supported by recovery in consumer electronics demand and increased adoption of medium-nickel ternary cathode active material (CAM), with China accounting for 149,000t of metal equivalent.
The current cobalt feedstock shortage is reducing cobalt product inventories in 2025, and this trend is expected to persist into 2026.
Xu also noted that downstream enterprises may become cautious or hesitant in adopting cobalt if key technologies or materials achieve breakthroughs in the future, potentially suppressing consumption growth due to uncertainties in cobalt supply.
DRC export quotas
Market participants are hoping the DRC will soon provide clear signals to stabilise downstream consumer confidence given current industry conditions, Xu added.
A maximum of 96,600 t/yr of cobalt will be authorised for export from the DRC to overseas markets in 2026 and 2027, consisting of a base quota of 87,000 t/yr and a strategic quota of 9,600 t/yr, according to the DRC's minerals regulator ARECOMS.
Export quotas for 2027 will mirror those of 2026, but ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust these volumes based on cobalt market developments through the end of 2026, as well as progress in localising cobalt hydroxide processing into higher-value products.
