Opec has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and 2026, for a fourth month in a row. But it highlighted a sizeable build in global oil stocks.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released today, Opec sees oil consumption rising by 1.30mn b/d to 105.14mn b/d in 2025 and by 1.38mn b/d to 106.52mn b/d in 2026.
Opec upgraded its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast for this year by 110,000 b/d to 920,000 b/d, based on higher historical data. It kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast for 2026 unchanged at 630,000 b/d.
Opec said global oil inventories increased by 304mn bl between January and September this year. Around half of this — 156mn bl — was oil at sea, which Opec attributes to "higher output from few key producing countries, that increased their crude exports."
Eight core Opec+ members have significantly boosted production this year by unwinding large volumes of output cuts.
OECD commercial stocks rose by 90mn bl and non-OECD rose by 62mn bl led by builds in China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Opec said.
Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — fell by 73,000 b/d to 43.02mn b/d in October, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus. The group estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 42.4mn b/d in 2025 and 43mn b/d in 2026.

