Brazil’s economic growth steady at 1.8pc in 4Q

: Agriculture, Crude oil, Electricity, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
26/03/03

Brazil's economic growth held steady at a 1.8pc annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, as growth in agriculture and services was partly offset by slowing industrial activity, according to government statistics agency IBGE.

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) held unchanged in the latest quarter from 1.8pc in the third quarter of 2024, in line with analysts' estimates in a Trading Economics survey. That followed 2.4pc growth in the second quarter.

For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 and 3.2pc in 2023, IBGE data show. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate stable at 15pc since June 2025.

The agriculture sector accelerated to 12.1pc growth in the fourth quarter from 10.1pc in the third quarter, following positive annual contributions from orange, wheat and tobacco throughout 2025, IBGE said. As for the industrial sector, output eased to 0.6pc growth after a 1.7pc gain in the third quarter, mostly pushed down by construction despite gains in extractive, electricity, gas and waste management.

Spending on services rose by an annual 2pc in the quarter, up from 1.2pc in the third quarter. Household spending accelerated to a 1pc annual pace in the fourth quarter, up from 0.4pc in the previous quarter. A favorable job market and expanding credit from federal programs aimed at low-income families prompted the result, IBGE said. Government spending accelerated to a 3.6pc pace from 1.8pc a quarter earlier.

Exports grew by 14pc after a 7.2pc gain in the previous quarter, driven by agriculture, crude and metals. Imports, which subtract from growth, fell by 0.3pc after a 2.2pc increase in the third quarter, pushed down by chemical products machinery and crude, IBGE said.

Gross fixed capital formation — which measures how much companies increase their capital goods — fell by 3.1pc in the quarter after a 2.3pc annual gain in the third quarter.

By João Curi

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26/03/03

US retail fuel prices jump at outset of Iran war: EIA

Houston, 3 March (Argus) — US retail gasoline prices rose in the past week by the most in nearly 11 months and diesel prices neared two-year highs, according to a federal report, after the US and Israel started a war with Iran. US retail gasoline prices in the week ended 2 March increased by 7.8¢/USG to $3.015/USG, the largest gain since 7 April 2025 and the highest value since 24 November, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Tuesday. Prices rose across all US regions, led by an 11.9¢/USG gain in the US midcontinent to $2.794. US gasoline prices over the past seven weeks have added 23.6¢/USG on average. The week's gains came as the US military on 28 February began combat operations in Iran following coordinated Israeli strikes, marking the most significant escalation in years in the oil-rich Mideast Gulf and putting oil and gas supply at risk. US diesel prices in the week through Monday added 8.8¢/USG to reach $3.897/USG, the eighth straight weekly gain and the highest since 29 April 2024, according to EIA data. Diesel prices rose across all US regions, led by a 10.9¢/USG gain in the US Gulf coast to $3.598/USG. Diesel prices have added 41.4¢/USG over the past eight weeks. In yearly comparison, US retail diesel prices were up by 26.2¢/USG while gasoline values have fallen by 6.3¢/USG. By Hannah Borai US average retail prices $/USG 2-Mar 23-Feb ± Regular gasoline ($/USG) National Average 3.015 2.937 0.078 East Coast 2.882 2.834 0.048 Midcontinent 2.794 2.675 0.119 Gulf Coast 2.644 2.532 0.112 Rocky Mountain 2.758 2.662 0.096 West Coast 4.160 4.111 0.049 Diesel ($/USG) National Average 3.897 3.809 0.088 East Coast 3.924 3.843 0.081 Midcontinent 3.888 3.798 0.090 Gulf Coast 3.598 3.489 0.109 Rocky Mountain 3.737 3.683 0.054 West Coast 4.534 4.465 0.069 Source: EIA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Major Kazakh coal companies to increase production

26/03/03

Major Kazakh coal companies to increase production

London, 3 March (Argus) — Major coal producers in Kazakhstan have discussed plans with the energy ministry to increase thermal coal output in the coming years and boost coal-fired power generation in the central Asian country. Private-sector coal companies and government representatives met on Monday for talks on how to use Kazakhstan's 33bn t of coal reserves as part of the country's national project to expand coal-fired power capacity. New coal-fired plants will push demand past 19mn t/yr by 2032, the energy ministry said, which can only be met by producers increasing their output capacity. Thermal producer Shubarkol Komir said it will increase production to 16.1mn t this year, above the 15.7mn t it produced in 2025. Bogatyr Komir, which operates the Ekibastuz coal mine — Kazakhstan's largest — said it plans to increase production from 42.7mn t in 2024 to 45.2mn t this year, with a long-term target of 56.5mn t/yr by 2032. Kazakh coal producers and utilities met in early February to outline plans to increase thermal coal generation capacity along with expanding production. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Germany's Merz cites Iran war fallout on energy

26/03/03

Germany's Merz cites Iran war fallout on energy

Washington, 3 March (Argus) — German chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday urged President Donald Trump to bring the US war against Iran to a swift conclusion, citing its negative effects on oil and natural gas prices. "This is, of course, damaging our economies — this is true for the oil prices and this is true for the gas prices as well," Merz told reporters during the televised portion of his meeting with Trump at the White House today. "That's the reason why we all hope that this war will come to an end as soon as possible, and we are hoping that the Israeli and the American army are doing the right things to bring this to an end and to have, really, a new government in place who is coming back to peace and freedom," Merz said. Trump downplayed the rise in oil prices during the press conference, and has indicated that the US campaign against Iran is still in the beginning stages. "We have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than even before," Trump said. Germany has hailed Trump's decision to attack Iran and eliminate its leadership. But Trump did not publicly address Merz's entreaty to discuss "the day after" the war ends. Ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil and LNG shipping lane — has almost ground to a halt since US and Israeli forces struck Iran on 28 February, with only three tankers recorded sailing through the waterway on 1 March, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. Total traffic through the strait is down by 94pc since the start of fighting. The front month Nymex WTI contract was up by more than $10/bl, or 15pc, in the first two sessions since the conflict began over the weekend. The effect on natural gas prices is even more pronounced, especially in Europe, because Qatar halted production at its 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan LNG export terminal. Trump is scheduled to meet with treasury secretary Scott Bessent and energy secretary Chris Wright at 2pm ET Tuesday to discuss measures mitigating the impact of higher oil and LNG prices. The administration is not considering a drawdown of strategic oil stocks at this time, according to a source familiar with the planned measures. Advocacy group FDD senior adviser and former Trump White House staff member Rich Goldberg attributed higher oil prices to maritime insurance providers, posting on social media that "the Strait of Hormuz is open" and that "London is working against us". Goldberg suggested there could be ways to address the spike in insurance prices. "We have a lot of creative tools to address the insurance issue in the Strait of Hormuz," he wrote on social media. Major protection and indemnity (P&I) clubs' re-insurers will cancel war risk coverage in certain areas of the Mideast Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, according to notices issued to their members on 1 March. These clubs include the London P&I, UK-based Steamship Mutual Underwriting Association, American P&I, Norway-based Gard and the Swedish Club. This comes after Oslo-based marine insurance provider Skuld and UK-based NorthStandard P&I cancelled war risk coverage for areas in the Mideast Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Middle East shock to tighten LatAm polymer supply

26/03/03

Middle East shock to tighten LatAm polymer supply

Sao Paulo, 3 March (Argus) — Heightened security risks across Middle East sea lanes because of the US-Iran conflict could disrupt polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) flows into Latin America as carriers suspend sailings, impose emergency surcharges and reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. Carriers have introduced emergency and war-risk fees on Middle East–Atlantic corridors, market participants said. Traders are citing initial guidance near $1,500/20ft equivalent units and prompt offers around $3,000/40ft container, according to a 2 March Hapag-Lloyd notice seen by Argus . Despite the cost surge, vessel space remains constrained as shipowners cut departures on high-exposure routes and roll bookings. Capacity tightness is most visible on short-notice shipments to South America's east coast, a global trader said. Rerouting away from high-risk zones is lengthening voyages and creating equipment imbalances, stretching lead times and undermining production planning for converters dependent on imported resin. Buyers report more blank sailings, delayed laycans and shifting arrival times as carriers adjust rotations. Additional insurance requirements and onboard security measures are adding time and cost, weakening schedule reliability into Santos, Manaus and other Brazilian ports. Transit through key canals is technically "restricted and unreliable" rather than fully closed, but the operational outcome is similar, with fewer departures from Gulf export hubs and fewer relay options into Mediterranean transshipment points, a source said. Equipment shortages on feeder services and rising premiums for guaranteed space are adding further friction. Impact on Latin America The conflict's immediate effect on Latin American markets is rising landed costs. Import-parity formulas are absorbing new surcharges and longer routes, lifting cfr Brazil indications even without adjustments to fob values. If reduced departure frequency persists, participants expect spot tightness to surface into late March, particularly for PP grades with limited substitution on the demand side. Domestic production can offset part of the shortfall but cannot fully cover a sharp reduction in Middle Eastern arrivals if carriers deepen schedule cuts. Middle Eastern suppliers remain central to Brazil's polymer balance. Saudi Arabia was Brazil's second-largest PP supplier in 2025, sending almost 140,080t, or 20pc of imports. As for PE, Saudi Arabia ranked third at 56,445t, while Egypt placed fifth with nearly 47,795t. Brazilian polyvinyl chloride (PVC) buyers also increased purchases from Egypt by 68pc last year to around 100,090t. Converters are adjusting sourcing strategies by front-loading purchases, widening delivery windows and considering alternative origins with lower exposure to higher-risk routes, even when nominal resin prices are higher. "The situation will not normalize in one or two weeks," one source said. "News changes by the hour, owners are cautious, and freight alone will lift cfrs across Brazil and the rest of Latin America." Market participants describe the disruption as global. With elevated risk premiums and major carriers avoiding vulnerable passages, surcharges and extended transits are expected to persist, supporting delivered PE and PP values until security conditions allow a broader return to standard routes. Meanwhile, Brazil's petrochemicals giant Braskem has also adjusted its domestic pricing in response to the tighter logistics environment. The company withdrew the pricing policy it released on 28 February and issued a revised schedule on 2 March, increasing PE and PP prices across all grades. Braskem lifted LDPE, HDPE, LLDPE and metallocene PE values by R500/metric tonne ($95/t), with no bonuses applied. As for PP, the company raised homopolymer and copolymer prices by R250/t, also without bonuses. Market participants said the revision reflects both escalating freight costs and expectations of reduced availability from traditional import origins. Chemicals The US–Iran conflict is adding pressure to Brazil's chemical chain through higher oil prices, exchange rate volatility and tighter availability of key feedstocks, chemical industry association Abiquim said on 3 March. While no physical disruptions have emerged, Abiquim warns that a sustained Brent increase will raise petrochemical naphtha costs, a structural vulnerability for a country that remains a net importer of derivatives. Rising energy benchmarks could narrow petrochemical margins and weaken Brazil's position against regions that produce more gas. Additional risks extend to nitrogen fertilizers and chemical intermediates, given Iran's role as an exporter of urea, ammonia, methanol and derivatives. Brazil imports about 85pc of its fertilizer needs, leaving agriculture and downstream producers exposed to potential price spikes. Abiquim also cited macroeconomic risks, with geopolitical uncertainty typically driving a stronger US dollar and raising import costs for industrial inputs and equipment. The situation underscores structural weaknesses in Brazil's chemical chain and the need for long-term policies that reduce dependence on imported naphtha, fertilizers and other strategic inputs, the group added. By Fred Fernandes and Isabela Mendes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sulphur jumps to $615-630/t fca Dar es Salaam

26/03/03

Sulphur jumps to $615-630/t fca Dar es Salaam

London, 3 March (Argus) — Argus assessed spot sulphur prices at the key hub of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania at $615-630/t fca on 3 March — an increase of just $20/t since 27 February as stocks in the port are ample. Four ships carrying a combined 181,000t of sulphur — enough to make roughly 540,000t of sulphuric acid — discharged at the port in February, and sulphur warehouses in Dar es Salaam are at 60-70pc capacity. Sulphur prices in Africa are likely to rise sharply, as elsewhere in the world, owing to the near-stoppage of shipping out of the Middle East Gulf and shutdown of major refineries in the region, as a result of the escalating US-Iran conflict. Global seaborne sulphur supply could fall by as much as 50pc. Nearly all sulphur imported by southern African buyers last year came from the Middle East and it will be hard to replace these lost supplies. Costs to deliver sulphur by truck from Dar es Salaam to the key mining hub of Kolwezi in the Democratic Republic of Congo are at about $280/t this week, implying delivered sulphur prices of around $900/t dap Kolwezi. This suggests a sulphuric acid price of nearly $300/t, at typical conversion ratios of 3:1 for sulphur to sulphuric acid. Additional sulphur cargoes are on their way to Dar es Salaam, having already transited the strait of Hormuz. But trading firms could decide to divert these shipments to other regions as Middle Eastern supply tightens. Several sulphur cargo bulkers are currently in the strait, with destinations not yet clear. These include: African Lorikeet , loaded on 27 February in Ruwais with around 61,000t of sulphur. Nejat , loaded on 3 March in Ras Laffan with around 18,000t of sulphur. Rui Fu Bang, loaded on 25 February in Shuaiba with around 33,900t of sulphur. By Fenella Rhodes and Bede Heren Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s economic growth steady at 1.8pc in 4Q

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