Global hydrogen output far below net-zero needs: IEA

Global production of low-emissions hydrogen falls well short of the volumes needed to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century under two of the main scenarios in the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook (WEO).

Under the IEA's Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which assumes no changes to existing policies, output of low-emissions hydrogen reaches around 11mn t/yr by 2035. Even in the Stated Policies Scenario (Steps) — which includes announced government targets and measures — production rises only to 13mn t/yr by 2035, the IEA said. That is just 10pc of the 123mn t/yr required by 2035 under its Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) pathway.

The watchdog's report shows that while policy momentum is growing, especially for renewable hydrogen via electrolysis, the current project pipeline is far from sufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals.

Hydrogen demand increases in all scenarios, but low-emissions supply mainly serves new uses rather than replacing fossil-based hydrogen, the IEA said. This means continued reliance on hydrogen from unabated natural gas reforming and other fossil routes.

In Steps, global hydrogen output rises to 125mn t/yr by 2035, but around 75pc still comes from unabated fossil fuels. Of the 13mn t/yr of low-emissions hydrogen, 10mn t/yr is from electrolysis, supported by 100GW of installed electrolyser capacity, up from 1.5GW in 2024. The remaining 3mn t/yr comes from carbon capture and storage (CCS)-based production.

By contrast, the NZE scenario requires low-emissions hydrogen to surge from less than 1mn t/yr today to 123mn t/yr by 2035, displacing fossil-based hydrogen across industry, transport and power.

The gap is stark in heavy industry. In NZE, more than 35pc of hydrogen used in industry comes from low-emissions sources by 2035, mainly for steel and chemicals. In Steps, high costs and weak policy support keep most industrial hydrogen unabated.

Hydrogen-based fuels also play a key role in transport under NZE. By 2035, they meet around 30pc of global shipping energy demand, with low-emissions ammonia and synthetic methanol replacing heavy fuel oil. In aviation, synthetic kerosine from hydrogen and captured CO2 covers 3pc of global fuel demand.

The power sector uses hydrogen and ammonia for seasonal storage and flexibility in NZE, supplying around 1.5pc of global generation fuel by 2035, the IEA said.

By Chingis Idrissov