Pakistan aims for record-high cement exports

: Cement, Petroleum coke
25/11/25

Pakistan's cement exports could rise to a record high within the next two years, delegates heard at the Intercem Americas conference in Miami, Florida, last week.

"We are hoping to reach 12mn t within the next two years," DG Khan Cement executive director Farid Fazal said at the conference. This would be 12pc higher than the previous record high of 10.75mn t in the 2008-09 fiscal year, before India banned imports from Pakistan. And it would be 30pc higher than the 9.21mn t exported in the 2024-25 fiscal year.

The country's exports more than doubled in 2024-25 from two years earlier, as Pakistan ramped up shipments to Asia, Africa and the US. The country has more than 40mn t of surplus capacity, as cement capacity was close to 90mn t in 2024-25 while domestic consumption was below 40mn t.

Despite the cement industry running at only 55pc capacity utilisation, "everybody is expanding", Fazal said.

DG Khan's investment in the production of LC3 cement, a lower-carbon emissions product, could also help it better compete in the seaborne market. LC3 cement contains only 50pc clinker, with 30pc calcined clay, 15pc limestone and 5pc gypsum. The company is able to source this clay from its own quarry. The US market is increasingly moving away from traditional CEM I Portland cement, which contains 95pc carbon-intensive clinker, and towards products with a higher proportion of supplementary cementitious materials in order to achieve a lower carbon footprint. These types of blended cements with lower clinker content increased to 60pc of the US import market in 2025, up from 5pc in 2000, On Field Investment Research managing partner Yassine Touahri said. And the EU's upcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) import costs will push that import market further towards lower carbon cement products.

The Pakistani cement industry is also leaning on the government to reduce the extensive regulatory requirements on the cement industry in order to encourage exports, Fazal said.

Egyptian exports to hold steady at 20mn t

Egypt, which has been ramping up cement and clinker exports sharply over the past five years, is expected to maintain total exports at around 20mn t of cement and clinker next year, if demand persists, Arabian Cement chief executive officer Sergio Alcantarilla said at the conference.

Although domestic demand rose to an estimated 53-54mn t this year, up by 12pc from 2024, an increase in utilization rates should allow Egypt to maintain exports at the 20mn t plus level in 2026. The government this month approved two new licenses for 2mn t/yr of combined production, but this capacity will not come online until 2027 or 2028.

Although Egypt used to be the market leader in clinker exports, this year is expected to be the first time in five years that cement exports will have exceeded clinker exports. Alcantarilla expects cement shipments to reach 12mn t this year, up from 7.6mn t in 2024, while clinker exports will fall to 8mn t from 12.2mn t last year.

By Lauren Masterson

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25/11/25

US cement market 2026 outlook shaky

Washington, 25 November (Argus) — The US is continuing to ramp up cement import capacity even as a demand slowdown has emerged, with policy uncertainty, especially around tariffs, creating considerable risk. "Any forecast has risk," analyst Ed Sullivan of The Sullivan Report said at last week's Intercem Americas conference in Miami, Florida. "This forecast has more risk than I can recall." An especially uncertain policy landscape is not only making the forecast shakier than usual but also increasing hesitancy among consumers and businesses. "The risks are not balanced. They are more on the downside, at least in the near term," Sullivan said. Ozinga, a concrete and cement supplier in Florida and the US midcontinent, was initially optimistic that cement demand would come "roaring back" after the November 2024 presidential election. "Then the Liberation Day thing happened, and I think that really put a pause to a lot of projects, just enough to make it very disappointing for most of the year," chief executive officer Marty Ozinga said, referring to the slate of tariffs President Donald Trump rolled out in early April. Although there has been a "measured turnaround in the last eight weeks", likely in part because "the dust is settling a bit" on US tariff announcements, "we're not going to catch all the way up by any means", Ozinga said. Tariffs have added $5-10/t of costs for US importers, On Field Investment Research managing partner Yassine Touahri said. Sullivan expects that US cement consumption fell by 5.2pc year over year in 2024 and will drop by another 4.6pc this year. His outlook for next year calls for a further 0.2pc drop, but this would be from a lower base of comparison, with 2026 likely to be the bottom at around 100mn t. But in terms of the longer-term outlook, the US is still well below its previous per capita cement consumption rates, with a forecast population growth of 30mn people by 2050, Sullivan said. At the rate of consumption of just a few years ago, the US would easily reach 140mn t market volume, he said. "It is glaring that we're nowhere near" the 30-year average in terms of cement consumption per capita, Ozinga said. "Ever since the great financial crisis, we've missed residential, and that used to be the bread and butter of everything we did." As mortgage rates remain relatively high at above 6pc and home affordability is at record lows, the residential construction sector is likely to continue to struggle. And quarterly reports from major cement players are showing a flat or even negative outlook for cement prices, making investments into the sector "pretty risky", Sullivan said. Domestic capacity utilization is only running around 76pc, which is well below the 80pc that producers would like to see, he said. Import capacity continues to rise "On the import side, capacity additions are not slowing down at all", even though demand for additional imports is much less certain than it was 3-5 years ago, LEK Consulting managing director Olivier Asset said. The amount of new and announced import terminal capacity is "not at all dissimilar to what we saw in the previous cycle in the 2000s", prior to the global financial crisis, Ozinga said. As the US domestic industry has lost market share to imports, cement companies have focused on vertical integration to control the market, Touahri said. Managing Director of FMI Capital Advisors George Reddin agreed. For those companies especially in areas near import facilities and with multiple cement plants, such as Louisiana, there is a drive to vertically integrate by acquiring ready mix concrete, Reddin said. This is part of a cycle that "happens every 15 years or so", he said. "Where the imports are is where the activity is in mergers and acquisitions," Reddin said. "Nobody wants to see their production go down, certainly no one wants to see an idle plant." Sullivan forecasts import volumes to also hit a bottom at around 17mn t in 2026, despite the large amount of new import capacity coming on line. By Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico's economy contracts in 3Q

25/10/30

Mexico's economy contracts in 3Q

Mexico City, 30 October (Argus) — Mexico's economy contracted by 0.2pc in the third quarter from a year earlier, as growth in the agriculture and services sectors failed to offset a sharp downturn in the industrial sector. The contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), reported by statistics agency Inegi, was milder than the 0.4pc decline expected by Mexican bank Banorte but marked the first annual contraction of the year, following flat growth in the second quarter and a 0.9pc expansion in the first. It was also the first negative result since the first quarter of 2021. Of the three main GDP components, only the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing, construction and mining, posted a decline, shrinking by 2.9pc — its fourth consecutive quarterly fall — after drops of 1.7pc and 0.8pc in the previous two quarters. Banorte said timely data suggest construction was weighed down by civil engineering, while manufacturing was mixed, with transportation equipment — the largest component — falling. Meanwhile, "mining apparently recovered, aided by the oil sector and a positive bias in related services," Banorte said. The result added to the perception of Mexico's economy on the verge of sliding into recession. Mexico's industrial output has contracted by more than 1pc in a quarter only 12 times since 1993, and 10 of those declines were all during recessions, Banco Base chief economist Gabriela Siller said. Industrial output has now declined by more than 1pc twice this year. Agriculture expanded by 3.6pc in the third quarter, following 2pc growth in the second and 7.2pc in the first, benefiting from milder weather after last year's extreme heat and drought. Services accelerated by 1pc in the third quarter, up from 0.9pc in the previous quarter. Quarter on quarter, Mexico's seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.3pc, compared with 0.6pc and 0.3pc growth in the prior two quarters, Inegi said. Banorte expects a "rebound in momentum" in the fourth quarter, supported by new federal infrastructure projects and a possible improvement in trade dynamics as US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement negotiations advance. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Stronger 3Q helps Cemex offset weaker 1H

25/10/28

Stronger 3Q helps Cemex offset weaker 1H

Washington, 28 October (Argus) — Cemex's cement sales volumes were mostly steady on the year in January-September, as a 5pc increase in the third quarter offset declines in the first half. Cemex said in July that it anticipated total cement sales volume to be flat to the prior year in full-year 2025, after sales fell by 4pc across all regions in the second quarter. Although volumes were still down on the year in Mexico and the US in the first nine months, a 7pc increase in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region and a 3pc increase in South and Central America and the Caribbean (SCAC) allowed overall cement sales to pick up by 1pc on the year. These cement volumes include domestic and export volumes of gray cement, white cement, special cement, mortar and clinker. Revenue was down by 3pc year on year in the first nine months, falling to $11.95bn, while profit fell by 6pc to $3.95bn. The largest drop in profit was from Mexico, which fell by 17pc to $1.59bn. But total revenue was up by 5pc in the third quarter and profit rose by 7pc. Cement prices were up by 2pc year over year across all Cemex's regions in the third quarter, with a 6pc increase in Mexico and 4pc and 3pc rises in EMEA and SCAC offsetting 3pc declines in the US and Europe. Cemex divested its Panama operations to Grupo Estrella and used part of the proceeds to acquire a majority stake in US-based Couch Aggregates. The company expects the investment in aggregates to increase production capacity by about 10pc in 2026. Cemex is optimistic about the outlook for US cement demand because of the infrastructure and industrial sectors. Infrastructure related to the 2026 World Cup should also boost demand in Mexico, the company said. "Definitely we see a better outlook for Mexico for next year," chief executive Jaime Muguiro said, with Cemex having an "extensive a number of projects in the pipeline". And in Europe, the tightening of free allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System and the upcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that is planned to start on 1 January 2026 should support cement pricing. The CBAM policy's increase in costs for imported cement and clinker could allow European producers to add €5-10/t to their cement pricing, Muguiro said. Cement companies in Turkey and Algeria that have previously exported to Europe have a much higher CO2 footprint than what Cemex expects the European benchmark to be, which could be as low as 650kg of CO2/t of clinker. "We do have an advantage because in Europe, we have much lower CO2 footprint," he said. For the full year, the company maintained its guidance for a low-single-digit decline in cement volumes for its overall operations and its US operations, with a high-single-digit decline in Mexico. In EMEA and SCAC, it expects a mid- and low-single-digit increase, respectively. Lower petroleum coke prices also contributed to the stronger third quarter. In Mexico, its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation margin expanded by 5 percentage points in the third quarter, with a 18pc decrease in unitary fuel cost contributing about 1.1 percentage points of that, Muguiro said. The company expects a high-single-digit percentage decrease in its energy costs per tonne of cement produced for full-year 2025. By Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s cement sales inch up in Jan-Sep

25/10/17

Brazil’s cement sales inch up in Jan-Sep

London, 17 October (Argus) — Brazil's cement sales recorded modest growth in the first nine months of the year, as steady infrastructure activity and resilient employment offset pressure from high interest rates and rising household debt. Cement sales in January-September rose by 3pc on the year to 50.3mn t, supported by stable demand in urban development and public works, Brazil's National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) said. The country's historically low unemployment rates and high consumer confidence also contributed to a healthier construction market. Cement sales reached 6.1mn t in September, up by 4.6pc from a year earlier. But high borrowing costs and tight credit conditions continued to weaken Brazil's real estate sector, the main driver of cement consumption in the country. New construction project launches in Brazil fell by 7pc in the second quarter, while the government's Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) housing programme declined by almost 16pc over the same period. And the number of units financed through the Brazilian Savings and Loan System (SBPE) construction credit system dropped by 55pc in the January-August period because Brazil's high benchmark Selic rate raised borrowing costs and slowed the availability of housing finance. Still, cement demand is expected to increase by about 2pc on the year in 2025 under a baseline scenario, with growth likely concentrated in Brazil's housing and infrastructure segments, SNIC said. The government plans to further support the MCMV housing scheme, which could add 2.5mn-3mn t of annual cement demand through 2026 and help address Brazil's estimated deficit of 6mn housing units. New mortgage credit models and a national housing renovation programme could also inject roughly 20bn reals ($3.7bn) into Brazil's real estate market, providing additional support. These measures aim to sustain construction financing, despite limited savings inflows and high funding costs. Clinker imports reach multi-year high As cement sales rise, some Brazilian cement plants have boosted clinker imports. January-September clinker imports rose to 732,600t, the highest volume since 2015 and up from 614,200t in the same period last year, customs data compiled by Global Trade Tracker (GTT) show. Egypt was Brazil's top supplier during the period at 198,000t after first beginning shipments to Brazil in April 2024. Brazil also imported 102,700t of clinker from Pakistan over the same period. The country first shipped clinker to Brazil in April. And deliveries from Algeria doubled year on year to 98,200t in January-September. But clinker imports from Turkey dropped by almost 8pc on the year to 141,900t. By Alexander Makhlay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU carbon policy prompts industry fuel shifts

25/10/07

EU carbon policy prompts industry fuel shifts

Washington, 7 October (Argus) — Heavy industries like cement, steel and aluminium that have traditionally relied on carbon-intensive fuels like petroleum coke are increasingly seeking replacements as the EU moves into the next phase of its carbon pricing regimen in 2026, delegates heard at the Argus Global Coke and Carbon Conference. Although the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS) has been in place since 2005, companies in emissions-heavy sectors were initially provided free allowances in proportion to their production. But free allowances are set to be phased out starting next year, meaning companies will now have to pay for up to 20-30pc of their emissions, which "creates urgency for the first time", Javelin's head of biomass Thomas Meth said at the conference in Washington, DC, late last month. ETS credits are currently in the €70s/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). There is also a steep reduction in free allowances to zero by 2035, and a target of 62pc emissions reduction by 2030. This target means the carbon price is expected to rise to €150/t of CO2e by 2030, DYM's Yury Burenko said. European companies have been preparing for the regulations for several years by increasingly substituting fossil fuels like coke and coal with alternative waste fuels. The European cement industry is already using 65pc alternative fuels, Ciplan's procurement manager Rodrigo Santana told the conference. Cement companies are also investing in plant efficiency and replacing energy-intensive clinker production with other cementitious materials like fly ash, slag and calcined clay. But another key new development starting next year is that the bloc is set to begin the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to apply these costs to producers outside the EU that seek to supply imports. This is contributing to increased interest in emissions reduction from plants in countries outside of the EU, like Japan. Japanese steel producers are testing options to replace pulverized coal injection (PCI) coal in their production process with options like biocarbon, a fuel made from wood, Meth said. This fuel contains 25-32 MJ/kg (5,975-7,648 kcal/kg), 3-8pc moisture, 60-95pc fixed carbon and 45-55 HGI. But the biocarbon production supply chain is early in its development, with Javelin expecting to bring the production infrastructure online by the fourth quarter, complete trial volumes of 200-20,000t in the first half of next year and produce 50,000t/yr by the end of 2026, depending on customer commitments. The CBAM policy's aim of leveling the playing field for European producers could be coming too late for the steel industry, however, which had by 2024 lost almost 56mn t/yr of crude steel production capacity since 2008 and 21mn t/yr since 2019, director of market analysis and economic studies for the European Steel Association Eurofer Alessandro Sciamarelli told the conference. This was in part because of higher energy prices and overall production costs compared with other major steel making regions. The steel market in Europe appears to be becoming a structural net importer for finished steel products as it has been in a widening deficit for the past eight years, a trend which will not necessarily reverse with the implementation of CBAM. Although the rising cost of carbon emissions may lead some companies to reduce their petroleum coke consumption, the lower heat content of many alternative waste fuels and the high cost of biomass-based fuels, will also support demand for coke compared with other high-emissions fuels like coal. Coke not only has a high calorific value (CV) that can boost efficiency of lower CV waste products, but it is typically available at a lower cost than coal. Coke will be the last fuel we substitute, one Turkish cement maker said on the sidelines of the conference. Petroleum coke is also a valuable source of carbon for applications that require this element. While biocarbon can be used to make higher fixed carbon products for metallurgical industry uses, the cost "is not linear — it's an exponential curve", Meth said. Javelin plans to create a biocarbon petroleum coke blend at its facility in Alabama. By Lauren Masterson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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