Australian farmers oppose Santos' Narrabri gas pipeline

: Agriculture, Natural gas
25/11/26

Australia's largest farmers' organisation has hired lawyers in an escalation of plans to oppose Australian independent Santos' Narrabri coal seam gas project in northwestern New South Wales (NSW) state.

NSW Farmers will seek to defend Australia's groundwater from mining giants that could contaminate artesian resources, the lobby representing the state's primary producers said on 26 November.

It is not clear what avenues remain open to NSW Farmers who are appealing previous approvals for Narrabri. Senior counsel will investigate and report back regarding legal options, a spokeswoman for the organisation said.

But the NSW government has found the risk of any significant impacts from Narrabri are low, a Santos spokeswoman said, adding that the state's Land and Environment Court had already dismissed an appeal against project approvals in 2021.

The controversial Narrabri project has cost Santos more than A$1.5bn ($970mn) since 2011 and faced long-term opposition from the region's native title holders, the Gomeroi.

An appeal against the National Native Title Tribunal's approval of the project was to be heard by the Federal Court of Australia in November but the judge presiding has excused herself from the case, citing a perceived conflict of interest. The case is now likely to be heard in 2026.

Santos has continued to sign offtake deals for the domestic supply scheme, as it pushes forward with easement deals for landholders along its proposed 833km Hunter gas pipeline needed to transport the gas.

The state government has swung firmly in favour of the development, with NSW Labor premier Chris Minns last month flagging compulsory land acquisition to secure the pipeline route.

Santos acquired Narrabri in 2010 and has said the project could supply 150-200 TJ/d (4mn-5.34mn m³/d) into the NSW gas grid to ease shortfalls predicted in eastern Australia's network from 2029.

By Tom Major

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25/12/04

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Golden Pass LNG approved to receive cool-down cargo

25/12/04

Golden Pass LNG approved to receive cool-down cargo

Houston, 4 December (Argus) — QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil's 18.1mn t/yr (2.4bn ft³/d) Golden Pass LNG export terminal in Texas received federal approval today to unload a cool-down cargo, a key step in commissioning the plant. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted the project's request to introduce hazardous fluids into various systems and receive the cool-down cargo. The 174,000m³ Imsaikah has been holding offshore Texas' Port Arthur since 29 November after departing QatarEnergy's 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan export terminal with a cargo on 27 October. The vessel's LNG will be used to cool down Golden Pass' equipment for its start-up process. The three-train project also has federal approval to introduce fuel gas to train 1 and train 1's gas turbine. Feedgas flows to Golden Pass have yet to materially rise. Pipeline nominations on 4 December were just over 8mn ft³, in line with daily flows since mid-October. Flows to LNG plants can be revised later in the day. The project's developers anticipate the facility will start production by the end of the year or in early 2026, with each of its three trains coming on line in six-month intervals. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bessent shifts China soy purchase deadline

25/12/03

Bessent shifts China soy purchase deadline

Houston, 3 December (Argus) — China is on pace to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of February, according to US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, falling short of the previously stated deadline of the end of 2025. At an event Wednesday, Bessent claimed China's soybean purchasing was on pace to reach its target "by the end of this season, so I think that'll be February 28". Bessent added that China is in a "perfect cadence" to reach the 12mn t purchasing milestone. Bessent's comments, though, are in direct contradiction with the 31 December deadline set by the the White House, which on 1 November said China would buy 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of 2025. Chinese purchases, which restarted at the end of October after a five-month pause, have been slow, with only 2.26mn t in confirmed sales to date, spawning fears that the country would fall short of the 12mn t figure this year. Small-volume soybean purchases made by China since 30 October will not be confirmed in the US Department of Agriculture's export sales reports until at least 8 December. No large-volume purchases have been reported since 28 November, despite some market participants expecting sales reports earlier this week. Bessent later added that China's "purchase by their central government is well into the correct cadence", seemingly confirming that state-owned firms are driving the purchases of US soybeans. Private processors have kept their sights set on Brazil's crop, according to market participants, which has been both cheaper than US product and faces a lower tariff rate. By Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

25/12/03

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

South Korea is scrambling for alternatives to coal-fired power to maintain sufficient base-load capacity, writes Evelyn Lee London, 3 December (Argus) — South Korea's pledge to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040 has thrown its energy strategy into sharp focus, exposing a looming 40GW capacity gap. With nuclear expansion stalling and renewables facing infrastructure hurdles, LNG has become the most likely bridge to fill the potential shortfall. South Korea has formally confirmed its plan to retire 40 out of its 61 existing coal-fired units by 2040, following its declaration during the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last month to join the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) — a coalition of countries committed to ending coal use for power generation. The phase out timeline for the country's remaining 21 units — some of which were built relatively recently — will be determined through public consultation taking into account economic and environmental feasibility, and a detailed phase-out strategy is expected to be finalised next year, the PPCA says. This aligns with Seoul's intention to establish its 2026-40 long-term power plan by the end of next year. The firm phase-out pledge leaves South Korea scrambling for alternatives to maintain sufficient base-load power capacity. Its current long-term power plan covering 2024-39 was established in February under the previous administration of then-president Yoon Suk-Yeol. It earmarked 28 aging coal-fired units with a combined 14.1GW of capacity for conversion to LNG, and 12 units with 6.8GW of capacity to transition to carbon-free generation, such as pumped storage, hydrogen or ammonia co-firing, all by 2038. The current administration under President Lee Jae-Myung has indicated it does not intend to allow plants to switch to ammonia co-firing , signalling a decisive break from earlier strategies that sought to keep coal in the mix under a low-carbon guise. In line with this, Lee's administration in October cancelled the second round of a clean hydrogen power generation bidding market, which would have subsidised hydrogen and ammonia co-firing under 15-year contracts. Seoul searching An accelerated coal phase-out alongside a ban on approving new nuclear reactors has led to growing expectations that South Korea will lean more heavily on gas-fired plants to maintain its power system at least until renewables capacity catches up. The current electricity plan stipulates building two new 1.4GW reactors and continued use of expiring reactors, resulting in nuclear capacity rising to 35.2GW in 2038 from 26.1GW in 2025. But the Lee administration has ruled out building new reactors, although construction of reactors already under development can proceed as planned. The government has approved the restart of the 650MW Kori reactor 2, in line with the president's stance that expiring reactors may continue operating if safety standards are met. But even with these measures, Seoul must identify more than 40GW of replacement capacity by 2040, based on information currently available. This is roughly equivalent to the country's entire coal-fired fleet, which has accounted for around 28pc of total power output this year. The government aims to expand South Korea's renewable energy capacity to 100GW by 2030 from a previous target of 80.9GW and current capacity of 37.9GW, but its renewables rollout continues to be constrained by insufficient transmission capacity upgrades, mainly driven by local opposition. A law to accelerate grid projects came into force on 26 September, but progress is now being held up by local governments, which are reluctant to approve project permits in a bid to maintain positive public opinion ahead of municipal elections in June next year. Persistent grid bottlenecks have increased the country's reliance on gas-fired generation in recent years, as these plants are located close to the main demand centre around Seoul. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK gas output continues to defy forecast decline

25/12/03

UK gas output continues to defy forecast decline

London, 3 December (Argus) — Production from the UK continental shelf (UKCS) inched up on the year in September, in contrast to the North Sea Transition authority's (NSTA) projected fall in output this year from last production. Gas output on the UKCS was 71.24mn m³/d in September, NSTA data show, up marginally from 71.17mn m³/d a year earlier. Output was varied across the country's largest production hubs, with higher production at Britannia and Arran balancing the decline at other fields. Production rose significantly on the year at Arran to 2.1mn m³/d in September, up from 0.1mn m³/d a year earlier. Similarly, there was sharp increase at Britannia to 2.1mn m³/d from 0.2mn m³/d a year earlier, because of heavy works in September 2024 at the two fields. Harbour Energy, the operator of the Britannia, experienced an "unusually high number of planned shutdowns" in 2024 . Meanwhile, production declined at the UK's largest fields — Culzean, Elgin, Franklin, Cygnus, Bruce and Tolmount — with the biggest production decrease at Bruce. Bruce production fell to 2.8mn m³/d from 4.4mn m³/d a year earlier. Marginally higher production coupled with lower domestic consumption on the year meant that UKCS output met a larger share of demand than in September 2024. UK demand fell to 107.4mn m³/d in September, from 116.4mn m³/d a year earlier. UK output in September met 66pc of demand, including exports to Ireland at Moffat, up from 61pc a year earlier. Production in 2025 revised up The NSTA increased its projection for production for 2025 and 2026 in its biannual forecast released in November. The NSTA forecast that net gas production will continue its decline, but remain higher than previously forecast in 2025 and 2026. The regulator expects net production of 24.6bn m³ — or 67.4mn m³/d — this year. This is up from its estimation of 24.5bn m³ in March, equivalent to 67.1mn m³/d. The NSTA also revised its net gas production figure for 2026 to 21.3bn m³, up from 21.2bn m³ in the previous forecast (see forecast table) . The NSTA revised its expected decline on the year in 2025 to 9.6pc from the previously projected 10pc. But the decline rate remains unchanged at 12pc for 2026-50. And the NSTA's projections for production in 2025-30 fall by an average of 2.3bn m³/yr. The regulator projects that the average unit cost of gas and crude oil together will increase to £19.80 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) this year, from £19.50/boe in 2025. And it expects this cost to increase in the following years, moving up to £20.80/boe by 2030. In its Autumn Budget, the UK government retained the energy profits levy on oil and gas profits until its scheduled end date of 31 March 2030 . Alongside the budget, the government published its North Sea Future Plan, which outlined that the government will not issue new oil and gas exploration licences in the North Sea, but it will encourage firms to produce gas from areas adjacent to operating fields . Production may surpass 2025 forecast Implied production data suggest that UK production may decline even lower than the revised NSTA forecast states. UKCS production totalled 21bn m³ in January-September. And based on the NSTA's projection of a total production of 24.6bn m³, this leaves 3.6bn m³ to be produced in October-December, or 39.1mn m³/d, based on NSTA data. But implied production — based on gas delivered to the national transmission system — was 79.8mn m³/d in October-November, or 4.87bn m³, already surpassing the projected annual figure for 2025. And if the 9.6pc production decline rate is applied to actual average output of 85.43mn m³/d in October-December 2024, this would equate to an output of 77.23mn m³/d during this period, which also suggests higher total annual production of 28.1bn m³. Operators expect strong production at certain hubs in December, further suggesting potential for production to surpass the NSTA projections. UK North Sea producer Ithaca Energy expects strong production in December on the back of new wells coming on line. An infill campaign at its Cygnus field is continuing, Ithaca said in its third-quarter results earlier this month, with the first of four wells expected to achieve production early this month . Similarly, the operator of the Bruce hub, Serica Energy, said in its third-quarter results last month that it expects strong output from Bruce in the last two months of the year . By Aleksandra Godlewska UK production forecast bn m³ November forecast March forecast October 2024 2024 27.4 27.2 26.3 2025 24.6 24.5 23.6 2026 21.3 21.2 20.3 2027 18.4 18.4 17.5 2028 16.2 15.9 15.6 2029 13.9 13.8 13.7 2030 12.2 11.9 12.1 2031 10.7 10.4 10.8 2032 9.4 9.2 9.7 2033 8.2 8.1 8.7 2034 7.1 6.9 7.5 2035 6.0 5.9 6.5 — NSTA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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