Australia’s Victoria to miss renewable power targets

: Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
25/12/03

Australia's second-largest state by population Victoria will meet its 2025 renewable energy goal, but is likely to miss future targets due to slow development, the state's auditor-general said today.

Delays to key projects risk future electricity shortages, according to the Managing the Transition to Renewable Energy report published on 3 December, highlighting difficulties reaching the state Labor government's targets (see table).

Three coal-fired stations, the 1,480MW Yallourn, 2,210MW Loy Yang A, and 1,200MW Loy Yang B generators produce about 59pc of the state's electricity, but the former two are scheduled to close in 2028 and 2035 respectively.

Meeting the 2030 target requires fast-tracking two major projects under the Victorian Transmission Plan. This includes the A$3.2bn ($2.1bn) Victoria-New South Wales (NSW) Interconnector West (VNI West) delayed from 2028 to 2030 in July and the Western Renewables Link also due to be completed in 2030.

The delay means Victoria will lack access to the 2,200MW Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project in New South Wales (NSW) when it is completed in late 2028, after Yallourn closes.

Canberra's Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) is critical to reaching 65pc renewables by 2030 but private firms must build and connect Victoria's full CIS allocation in the next four years with additional state support, the report said. Achieving the 2030 goal also relies on electricity demand not growing faster than anticipated.

Transmission projects are unpopular with many landholders and regional communities due to land use conflict issues. Victoria has moved to neutralise opposition by legislating accelerated pathways for new projects.

But Victoria will meet its 2.6GW storage target by 2030 because sufficient new battery capacity is planned, the auditor-general said.

Offshore wind fail

Victoria is aiming to replace much of its coal-fired capacity with offshore wind projects but the sector has stuttered after permitting for a key support facility was rejected by federal authorities in 2024.

Under an optimistic scenario, Victoria may build 2GW of offshore wind capacity by 2033 but further delays are possible, the report said.

The state's energy department has not adequately considered risks transitioning supply from fossil fuels to renewables, including the full extent of projects delays and weather variation, the auditor-general found.

Long-lasting high-pressure systems prevalent in May-October could reduce wind generation for days on end, limiting both battery charging and imports of power.

Gas-fired generation is at risk from gas supply shortfalls, meaning the current pipeline of generation and storage projects could be insufficient to offset Yallourn's closure.

The report comes two days after a regulator determined that the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired facility in NSW, the nation's largest, would likely need to be kept on line beyond its planned retirement in 2027.

By Tom Major

Victoria's renewable energy targets
	2020	2025	2030	2032	2035	2040

Renewable total (%)	25	40	65	-	95	-
Offshore wind power (GW)	-	-	-	2	4	9
Energy storage (GW)	-	-	2.6	-	6	-
— Victorian government

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25/12/04

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Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

25/12/04

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

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Australia proposes native forest management ACCU method

25/12/04

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LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

25/12/03

LNG to fill the gap as Seoul pledges faster coal exit

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