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US soy to take nearly 4mn acres from corn in 2026

  • : Agriculture
  • 25/12/08

After reaching a record level in 2025, US corn is expected to lose nearly 4mn acres to the soybean crop in 2026, according to the US Department of Agriculture's preliminary baseline estimates.

US farmers are projected to add 3.9mn acres of soybeans in 2026, pushing total planting to 85mn acres. A large portion of this expansion is expected to come at the cost of corn, which the USDA projects will see planted acres decline by 3.7mn to 95mn acres.

The USDA's projections signal a reset from this year, when corn acres reach a record 98.7mn and soybean planting slump to a five-year low of 81.1mn acres.

Wheat acres are projected to fall as well, with the planted area estimated at 44mn acres for the 2026-27 crop, down 1.3mn acres from this year's planting.

In total, across the 8 primary US row crops, the USDA projects 247.6mn acres will be planted during the 2026-27 season, a 1.1mn acre decline from this year.

The USDA's preliminary baseline estimates provide the first indications of the agency's thoughts on next year's production outlook, and precede the final baseline projections, which are scheduled to be released in February.

By Ryan Koory

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25/12/08

Court asks US for update on biofuel quota timing

Court asks US for update on biofuel quota timing

New York, 8 December (Argus) — A US court told President Donald Trump's administration today to provide an update within a week on its plans for finalizing long-delayed biofuel blend mandates. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must file an update "briefly detailing the agency's progress toward finalizing and promulgating the 2026 renewable fuel standards" within seven days, a three-judge panel on the US District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals ordered Monday. The court added that the government should provide "an estimated time frame for issuing those standards" if possible. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. The Trump administration — after proposing major changes to how the program treats biofuel imports and exempts some small refiners — is now months behind schedule on finalizing new quotas. Agency decisions around the program are highly influential for biofuel production margins, crop demand and ultimately retail fuel prices. The Trump administration told a separate DC court in September that it expected to finalize new biofuel quotas "this winter 2025-2026", but that was before a partial government shutdown sidelined many federal workers. EPA was supposed to provide another update in November, but that court gave the government more time to respond in civil cases because of the funding lapse. The DC Circuit case involves a Delek refinery and an HF Sinclair refinery that argue they were unfairly deemed ineligible for exemptions from 2024 blend mandates because they processed too much crude the year before. They pushed for a quicker case, noting that the credits EPA could compensate them with will soon be worthless. EPA's current policy is to return credits to refiners that complied with past mandates but are given retroactive exemptions, but these credits can only be used the year they were generated or the subsequent compliance year. The Monday order notes that the DC Circuit is curious about EPA's progress since the timing of new biofuel mandates will impact the date when credits from 2024 expire. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Harvest progress no help to Argentina wheat quality

25/12/05
25/12/05

Harvest progress no help to Argentina wheat quality

Sao Paulo, 5 December (Argus) — Argentina's wheat harvest advanced in the latest week, registering high yields and low protein content as work moved south into areas that typically produce higher-quality grain. The wheat harvest advanced 11.4 percentage points in the week through 3 December, reaching just over 45pc completion, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) reported. Yields so far range from 3.5 metric tonnes (t) per hectare (ha) to 5.9t/ha, with the national average reported at a record 3.92t/ha. Bage maintained its forecast for production of 25.5mn t. Yields in Argentina's so-called core agricultural area are even higher, from about 5t/ha to as high as 7t/ha, according to the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR). The core area, consisting of parts of the provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe, is producing wheat with uneven test weights depending on variety and "extremely low" protein and gluten levels, BCR said. The wheat harvesting was again delayed by rain in parts of central and southern Buenos Aires province, though work advanced more in the central region while it is just starting in the south of the province, the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (SAGyP) said. Some southern regions of Buenos Aires province, particularly around the port city of Bahia Blanca, generally produce lower yields and higher protein content compared with other parts of the country, according to market participants. Yields around Bahia Blanca are expected to be higher than normal this year, but not as high as in areas to the north, they said. Soybeans overtake corn Soybean planting progressed 8.7 points in the week through 3 December, reaching 44.7pc complete, Bage said. That was 9 points behind the same time last year and 1.1 point behind the five year average. Planting of early soybeans is nearly finished, with work in some areas in central Buenos Aires province delayed by soggy fields, Bage reported. Planting of late soybeans is advancing where harvesting of wheat and other crops has finished, according to the Exchange. Recent precipitation in the core region has left good soil moisture levels in areas planted with soybeans, BCR reported. Farmers in some parts of the core are applying more fertilizer with an eye to boosting yields, though not all producers have the financial resources to boost fertilizer use, according to the Board. Corn planting lagged soybean sowing in the week, advancing 5 points to 44pc finished, Bage said. In the area already planted, 86pc of the crop is in good to excellent condition, and 94pc of the total estimated area has adequate to optimal soil moisture levels. Barley harvesting continued in the week, despite some flooded fields. The crop remained in generally good condition, despite the appearance of some diseases, with yields ranging from 2.9t/ha to 4.3t/ha, SAGyP reported. By Jeffrey T. Lewis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU maintains wheat export pace, but lags on average

25/12/05
25/12/05

EU maintains wheat export pace, but lags on average

London, 5 December (Argus) — The EU has exported slightly more non-durum wheat on the year in July-November ― given missing data from Poland in the latest updates ― but exports remained below the five-year average for the bloc, according to European Commission data. Wheat exports have increased slightly for the rest of the EU in the 2025-26 (July-June) marketing year when excluding Polish exports from previous years. Commission data have not included Polish wheat exports since 21 September. Soft wheat exports from the rest of the EU reached 9.29mn t as of 30 November, compared with 9.24mn t last season, although still below the average for the period in 2020-24 for the rest of the EU at 11.4mn t. The EU exported 9.66mn t of wheat, including limited available Polish soft wheat export data, by the end of November in 2025-26, down from 10.14mn t a year earlier, and the whole bloc's five-year average of 12.6mn t by this time in the season in 2020-24. The preliminary data showed fewer EU exports on the year without the latest data from Poland, which has been one of the EU's largest wheat exporters in recent years, making up more than 10pc of the EU's soft wheat exports in 2020-24. EU wheat exports are set to continue facing strong competition this season with other exporters, some of which could see a record harvest. Argentina and Australia are forecast to see record crops. Australia is expected to produce 36mn t, up from 34.1mn t in the previous year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Argentina is expected to produce as much as 24.5mn t, up from 18.5mn t in 2024-25, according to the USDA. Algeria's recent milling wheat tender has set the stage for competition among origins to further develop. EU Black Sea and Argentinian new crop wheat are likely to be delivered to Algeria, despite the longer distance and higher freight rates for Argentinian wheat. By Erik Metaliaj Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

25/12/04
25/12/04

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Adecoagro makes offer for remaining 50pc in Profertil

25/12/03
25/12/03

Adecoagro makes offer for remaining 50pc in Profertil

Sao Paulo, 3 December (Argus) — Argentinian agribusiness company Adecoagro submitted a binding offer to buy YPF's 50pc stake in Argentinian nitrogen producer Profertil. YPF's stake in Profertil is expected to be of around $600mn, Adecoagro said. YPF's board of directors needs to approve the proposal and that is expected to take place this month. Adecoagro would become the controlling shareholder of Profertil, holding 90pc of the total share capital. Argentinian grain cooperative ACA will hold the remaining 10pc. The proposal mirrors terms and conditions agreed between Adecoagro and North American fertilizer producer Nutrien. Nutrien agreed in September to sell its 50pc stake of Profertil to Adecoagro and ACA. Adecoagro will finance the transaction through a combination of existing cash reserves, an already committed long term credit facility and proceeds from share sales. Profertil is Argentina's leading fertilizer producer, supplying around 60pc of Argentina's urea consumption. It can produce 1.3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of urea and 790,000 t/yr of ammonia. It operates a distribution network at major ports and the Bahia Blanca nitrogen complex, with warehouses in Puerto General San Martin, San Nicolas, Necochea and Loma Paraguaya. The firm is also a large importer of other finished fertilizers, such as DAP, MAP and potash. Profertil has storage capacity for 150,000t of urea and 20,000t of ammonia at its Bahia Blanca site. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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