Metanol: Mercado se ajusta à nova dinâmica no spot

: Petrochemicals
25/12/29

Novos fluxos de importação de metanol a partir de Rússia e Omã em 2025 aumentaram a competitividade do produto colocado no mercado à vista. Negociações por descontos maiores nos contratos de fornecimento, no entanto, devem limitar avanços mais significativos do spot no próximo ano.

O aumento na diferença de preços entre contratos para pronta-entrega e entregas a termo tem levado usinas de biodiesel a negociarem descontos maiores. O segmento representa cerca de metade das aquisições de metanol no país. Até a reta final de 2025, o padrão para negociações utilizado pelas usinas era de descontos médios de 44pc em relação aos valores estabelecidos pelos principais fornecedores.

Os produtores de biodiesel agora reivindicam descontos próximos a 50pc ou mais, em movimento que deve se estender por 2026.

Parte das usinas de biodiesel tem intenção de aumentar a parcela de compras no mercado à vista e buscam aproveitar as oportunidades de preço que se apresentaram recentemente. Os volumes via contrato ainda representam a maior parte do mercado.

A diferença de preço entre as duas modalidades mais que dobrou entre junho-dezembro, avançando de R$436/t para R$928/t, mostram os indicadores da Argus.

Produtores de metanol argumentam que os níveis praticados no mercado à vista são insustentáveis para a manutenção das operações no médio ao longo prazo.

A retração dos preços no spot é atrelada a uma sobreoferta de metanol devido à entrada de novas origens. O fortalecimento no combate a fraudes, atraso na implementação dos novos mandatos de mescla de biodiesel e uma desaceleração maior que a esperada nas vendas de biodiesel contribuem para a sensação de excesso de produto disponível.

Cargas provenientes de Rússia e Omã começaram a chegar aos portos brasileiros em maio. Até novembro, foram contabilizadas 72.574 toneladas (t) de produto nacionalizado, segundo dados do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (Mdic). Isso representa 7pc do total de 1,0 milhão de t importadas no período.

As usinas de biodiesel não acompanharam o aumento nas importações de metanol. Em parte, produtoras foram afetadas pelo atraso na alta da mescla para 15pc de biodiesel (B15), inicialmente esperada para março, mas efetivada somente em agosto.

A demanda das usinas por metanol cresceu 2,5pc entre janeiro-outubro, na comparação com o mesmo período do ano anterior, segundo dados da Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Os desembarques nos portos brasileiros avançaram 6,1pc, conforme dados da plataforma especializada no monitoramento de navios Kpler.

A operação Carbono Oculto contribuiu para afetar o balanço entre oferta e demanda, retirando do mercado parte de um volume com destinação irregular. Deflagrada no fim de agosto, a operação desvendou um esquema bilionário de lavagem de dinheiro e adulteração de combustíveis que envolvia a importação ilegal de metanol por meio do porto de Paranaguá.

Oferta e demanda

Participantes de mercado esperam um novo atraso no aumento do mandato de mescla do biodiesel em 2026.

Produtoras de metanol relatam que as negociações por renovações de contratos para fornecimento de gás — principal matéria-prima para produção de metanol — estão atrasadas em Trinidad e Tobago, oferecendo menor clareza de preços à frente.

A relação entre Estados Unidos-Venezuela, diante da mobilização de forças militares norte-americanas no Caribe, e uma eventual retirada das sanções da Europa e dos EUA contra a Rússia também seguem no radar.

O fluxo de metanol entre Rússia-Brasil se desenvolveu após o fechamento do mercado europeu para o país em conflito com a Ucrânia. Distribuidores de produto russo argumentam que a rota para o Brasil está consolidada.

Carregamentos de Trinidad e Tobago, Venezuela e Rússia corresponderam a mais da metade do metanol que desembarcou no Brasil em 2025.

Empresas com base nas mesmas origens de importação atuais, que ainda não integram o mercado brasileiro, estudam ingressar neste segmento. O cenário de alta concorrência e preços em queda pode inibir avanços nos próximos meses.

Pela ótica da demanda, a expectativa é de maior procura do setor de biodiesel. A Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) projeta crescimento de quase 6pc nas buscas por biodiesel, para 10,5 milhões de m³ em 2026. O cálculo considera a manutenção do atual mandato de mescla do biodiesel no diesel de 15pc. Apesar do provável atraso no aumento da mescla, produtores de biodiesel mantêm o plano de investimentos em novas plantas, visando a demanda crescente nos anos seguintes.

Por Fernando Ladeira

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26/01/02

Viewpoint: Brazil methanol market adapts to spot price

Sao Paulo, 2 January (Argus) — New import flows of methanol from Russia and Oman in 2025 have increased the competitiveness of the product offered in Brazil's spot market. Methanol cargoes from these origins began arriving at Brazilian ports in May, contributing to an oversupply in the market. Imports from the two origins totaled 72,574t in November, data from Brazilian trade ministry Mdic show. The volume represents 7pc of the total 1mn t imported during the month, which increased methanol spot market activity and pressured competitors to lower their prices. But negotiations for larger discounts on methanol supply contracts will likely limit more significant gains for the spot market this year. The widening price gap between prompt-delivery and forward contracts has led biodiesel plants to negotiate bigger methanol discounts. Biodiesel plants use methanol as a reagent to transform vegetable oils or animal fats into the fuel, a process known as transesterification, and the segment accounts for about half of the methanol purchases in Brazil. The standard negotiation pattern for plants involved average discounts of 44pc for prices set by major suppliers, but in late 2025, biodiesel producers began demanding discounts close to 50pc or more, a trend likely to continue into 2026. Some biodiesel plants intend to increase their share of spot purchases and seek to take advantage of recent price opportunities, but contract volumes still represent most of the market. The price differential between the two purchasing methods increased by 75pc to $181.55/metric tonne (t) in December from $103.72/t in June, Argus data show. Methanol producers, which trade mainly based on contracts, say that spot market levels are unsustainable for maintaining medium to long-term operations. The excess of product availability is also supported by stronger fraud-prevention measures, delays in implementing new biodiesel blending mandates and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in biodiesel sales. Biodiesel plants did not keep up with the increase in methanol imports. The delay in raising the mandatory blend of biodiesel into diesel to 15pc from 14pc affected producers, as the increase was initially expected in March but only implemented in August. Methanol demand from plants grew by 2.5pc in January-October from the same period in 2024, data from the hydrocarbons regulator ANP show. Shipments to Brazilian ports rose by 6.1pc, data from vessel-tracking platform Kpler show. The Hidden Carbon operation also affected the supply-demand balance by removing a volume of methanol intended for illegal use. The operation, launched at the end of August, uncovered a billion-dollar money-laundering and fuel-adulteration scheme involving the illegal import of methanol through the port of Paranagua, in Parana state. Supply and demand Market participants expect another delay in increasing the biodiesel blending mandate in 2026. Negotiations to renew gas supply contracts — the main feedstock for methanol production — are delayed in Trinidad and Tobago, offering less price clarity going forward, methanol producers said. Escalating US-Venezuela tensions, amid the deployment of US military forces in the Caribbean, and a possible lifting of European and US sanctions against Russia also remain on the radar, as this flow was made possible as the European market closed to Russian suppliers because of the Ukraine conflict. Distributors of Russian product argue that the route to Brazil is now consolidated. Shipments from Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela accounted for about half of the methanol landed in Brazil in 2025. Companies based in the same current import origins, which have not yet entered the Brazilian market, are considering joining this segment. But the highly competitive and falling methanol price may hinder progress in the coming months. From a demand perspective, expectations point to greater biodiesel sector consumption. Brazilian energy research bureau Epe projects nearly 6pc growth in biodiesel production to 180,000 b/d in 2026. The estimate assumes the maintenance of the current 15pc biodiesel blend mandate in diesel. Despite the likely delay in increasing the blend, biodiesel producers are maintaining investment plans in new plants, aiming at growing demand in the coming years. By Fernando Ladeira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US recycled polymers under pressure

26/01/02

Viewpoint: US recycled polymers under pressure

Houston, 2 January (Argus) — The US recycled polymers market enters 2026 under pressure from weak demand, low costs for virgin resin and fragmented policy signals. With no federal recycled-content mandate on the horizon, state programs remain the leading driver of compliance, while a pending Oregon legal challenge adds fresh uncertainty. The US recycling market lacks unified recycled content requirements, and most of the country is still operating in the absence of less-stringent measures such as extended producer responsibility (EPR) and deposit return schemes (DRS) for plastic packaging. In addition, momentum for a national sustainability initiative has stalled during the administration of President Donald Trump, which has repeatedly shown little interest in — and has even actively eschewed — climate initiatives across the board. With recycling legislation deprioritized, expectations are growing that state-level rules will shape demand in 2026. Oregon's Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act, which introduced EPR requirements in 2021, will face a pivotal legal test in early 2026. The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) has requested a preliminary injunction, with a hearing scheduled for 14 January before the US District Court. NAW argues that the law forces producers and distributors to contract with a single entity, violating constitutional limits on interstate business. The ruling could reshape the national EPR landscape. If NAW prevails, enforcement in Oregon may be delayed, or the program may be redesigned, which would weaken investments in state-led recycling mandates. An unfavorable ruling for Oregon could also encourage opposition to similar programs, jeopardizing Washington's newly adopted ERP law and stalling EPR legislation in New Jersey. But if Oregon's law withstands the challenge, it could secure funding for recycling infrastructure and strengthen momentum for EPR programs nationwide. Legal uncertainty adds to the structural challenges already weighing on recycled plastics. Many US recyclers have shut down facilities as low-cost imports and oversupplied virgin material weaken margins. Major plants such as rPlanet Earth and Evergreen in California, and the PET recycling affiliate of Alpek in North Carolina, all shuttered in 2025, and WM's Natura location idled its Texas film recycling plant. Market sources say recyclers lack incentives to invest amid weak demand signals. In addition to a lack of urgency in policy, the recycling industry has seen a rollback in voluntary initiatives from end-users, with several brand owners retreating on their sustainability goals. This year, PepsiCo reduced its previous target of 50pc of recycled content in its plastics by 2030 to 40pc by 2035. PepsiCo's reduced target follows Coca- Cola's shift in 2024 from 50pc recycled content by 2030 to 35-40pc by 2035. The brands will point out — in many cases justifiably — that they are unable to obtain sufficient recycled material to hit their targets, particularly in the case of non-PET food contact packaging where the choice of materials is severely restricted by local safety laws. The additional cost of packaging-quality recyclates, compared with virgin material, is also very likely to be another factor in the current business environment in which many brands are discussing cost-saving initiatives. From the recycling industry's perspective, this illustrates that voluntary commitments alone are not enough to drive investment in the industry. Unless federal action is implemented, state-level uncertainty and voluntary corporate initiatives will leave recycled plastics demand vulnerable through 2026. The legal outcome in Oregon will set the tone for EPR mandates nationwide. The US recycled plastics market enters 2026 at a crossroads, awaiting legislative clarity that could determine whether sustainability goals will gain the necessary momentum or risk further deterioration. By Dona Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Weak PET market weighs on Europe MEG

26/01/02

Viewpoint: Weak PET market weighs on Europe MEG

Amsterdam, 2 January (Argus) — Challenging conditions in the upstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market continue to weigh on monoethylene glycol (MEG) demand in Europe, with end-users taking a cautious stance on 2026 contract volumes. The recently announced idling of a PET plant in Spain, under pressure from competitively priced imports and high regional production costs, could allow other European producers to raise operating rates and keep regional feedstock demand steady. But MEG sellers are concerned imports could largely fill the gap, shrinking the overall market share for European producers. The European Commission's anti-dumping probe into Vietnamese PET imports is being closely watched by market participants. Any potential measures could provide some relief to European producers and support MEG demand. But past experience tempers optimism, with anti-dumping measures on Chinese PET imposed in November 2023 doing little to stop the flow of low-priced imports to Europe as trade shifted to alternative origins. This uncertainty has shaped contract discussions for 2026 MEG supply, as PET is a key downstream sector for MEG in Europe. While some end-users requested similar volumes compared with 2025, others were increasingly cautious and either committed to less material or pushed for greater flexibility under term agreements — reducing base volumes with an option to increase offtake if downstream conditions improve. Some buyers are also expected to rely more on spot supply in 2026 than in 2025. MEG availability is ample, with China's growing self-sufficiency and the disrupted US-China flow because of trade tensions leading to excess supply in the global market. Tariff-related reshuffling of trade flows did not lead to an influx of imports into Europe in 2025, as the region could not absorb substantial spot quantities on top of contractual supply given lacklustre demand. Regular volumes from the US and Saudi Arabia have long been substantial and structurally important for the European supply chain. The European Commission's proposal to slash import duties on a wide range of US chemicals — broadly supported by EU member states in November — would open up arbitrage opportunities for spot imports from the US more frequently if approved by the European Parliament. Zero duties would only benefit US producers with 3-10.3pc anti-dumping duty rates, as other US manufacturers face prohibitively high levies of 46.7-60.1pc in the EU, and the removal of a 5.5pc import duty would make little difference. Existing anti-dumping duties on US and Saudi MEG are due to expire on 16 November 2026. While EU producers are preparing for a review of the measures, any changes could quickly change the competitive landscape in the region. With supply outpacing demand, buyers have been pushing for wider discounts in their contracts compared with 2025. Overall, flat to slightly higher discounts have been agreed, reflecting the length in the market, market participants reported. The market could also see redistribution of market share and consolidation of sales volumes in fewer hands, as larger sellers leverage economies of scale to offer more attractive terms to buyers. By Liana Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US methanol to further displace Trinidad

25/12/31

Viewpoint: US methanol to further displace Trinidad

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — US methanol producers are expected to further expand global market share while simultaneously eroding Trinidad and Tobago's share as the island nation contends with unreliable feedstock availability. Trinidad and Tobago's mature natural gas fields are in significant decline, and natural gas availability has incrementally shrunk during the last 15 years, according to the Caribbean country's National Gas Company (NGC). Natural gas is a critical feedstock for methanol production, and the decline in natural gas output from the twin island nation has cut methanol capacity since 2009. US methanol production capacity concurrently expanded with the decline in Trinidad output, and major producers continue to invest in US assets to further expand market share — a trend expected to continue in 2026. Trinidad and Tobago is a major supplier to US east coast distributors and is anticipated to lose market share to US producers. East coast importers and distributors from January-September took in 221,079 metric tonnes (t) of methanol from Trinidad and Tobago, marking a 20pc decrease from average shipments during the same nine-month period from 2021-24, according to government data collected by Global Trade Tracker (GTT). Lower imports from Trinidad and Tobago raised the cost of transportation by trucks and railcars on the US east coast and widened the differential to the US Gulf coast. The average price premium east coast truck and railcars commanded over the US Gulf coast has jumped fourfold since 2021, and that widening spread could incentivize domestic suppliers to further displace methanol imports with domestic production. Additionally, the US could also expand its methanol presence in Europe. US methanol exports to Europe stood at 1.7mn t during the first nine months of this year, up by 39pc over the same period of last year and 200pc higher than in 2021. Meanwhile, exports from Trinidad and Tobago to Europe fell by 41pc to 1mn t from January-September 2025, according to GTT. Trinidad's natural gas future Operators in Trinidad and Tobago are investing in upstream projects to increase natural gas production, but these efforts will likely only offer a slight boost and short-term feedstock stability. One project headed by UK-based BP will deliver about 250mn cf/d to midstream and downstream consumers in Trinidad. Natural gas flows will start in April 2026, the company said earlier this year. Despite this project, and others under development, natural gas supply will remain tight through 2027, sources said, keeping methanol operations curtailed during the next two years. Long-term growth depends on cross-border natural gas development with Venezuela, which has large reserves but faces geopolitical tension with the US. While Trinidad's natural gas production is not expected to run dry soon, more is going to higher priced molecules, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) or ammonia, instead of methanol — a trend that has defined the shifting supply balance from Trinidad during the last 15 years. Natural gas production peaked at 4.3 Bcf/d in 2010, but fell to around 2.5 Bcf/d in 2025, according to NGC. Feedstock natural gas deliveries to Trinidad's methanol assets fell simultaneously with sliding output, with January-to-June deliveries this year down by 11pc to 452mn cf/d compared to the January-June period last year, NGC data showed. These cuts and the sporadic nature of the islands' natural gas supplies have slashed Trinidad's 8mn t/yr methanol capacity to an estimated 4mn-5mn t/yr of production, just over half of total operational rates. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Brazil tightens grip on polymer imports

25/12/29

Viewpoint: Brazil tightens grip on polymer imports

Sao Paulo, 29 December (Argus) — Brazil's growing dependence on polymer imports and its record trade deficit in 2025 have placed domestic producers and policymakers under mounting pressure, prompting a wave of protective measures, a trend expected to continue into 2026. Conditions for Brazilian polyethylene (PE) producers remained as challenging in 2025 as in 2024. PE imports totaled $1.49bn in January-November, only 1.5pc lower than the $1.51bn in the same period of 2024, while volumes rose slightly to 1.34mn metric tonnes (t) from 1.32mn t, according to Comexstat data.The marginal improvement in value reflects global price decreases rather than any structural shift in sourcing, underscoring persistent pressure on domestic producers. The backdrop to these difficulties was 2024, when Brazil posted its largest-ever annual polymer trade deficit. Imports of PE, polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) surged as global supply expanded and domestic capacity remained constrained. Even after Brazil raised overall polymer import tariffs to 20pc from 12.6pc in October 2024, inflows continued to climb. These developments triggered the protective measures in 2025 that are likely to intensify in 2026. Braskem, Brazil's leading producer, reported a further $51mn in losses in the first nine months of 2025, fueling calls for government intervention. In response, Brazil imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on US and Canadian PE in August 2025 — $199.04/t for US-origin and $238.49/t for Canadian-origin resin — valid for six months. These measures were introduced by foreign trade council Gecex/Camex and are now under review by the department of trade defense Decom, with a final decision expected in early February. So far, these measures have had limited impact because preliminary duties can be suspended or refunded if overturned. Final duties, also expected in February, would lock in higher costs permanently, reducing pricing uncertainty and forcing buyers to seek alternative supply sources. Market participants are monitoring whether permanent tariffs will alter procurement strategies, particularly for large converters. Despite the new anti-dumping duties, the US remained Brazil's top PE supplier in January–November 2025, accounting for 66pc of volumes, down from 71pc one year earlier. Argentina expanded its share to 14.8pc from 10.9pc, with shipments rising to 199,415t. Canada maintained a smaller share, while other suppliers such as Colombia and Mexico continued to serve niche segments. Beyond PE, Brazil raised anti-dumping tariffs on US suspension-grade PVC to 43.7pc in May 2025, up from 8.2pc previously. This move effectively displaced US suppliers, opening space for Colombian and Argentine producers to increase their presence in the Brazilian PVC market. PP imports also remained elevated through 2025, with volumes stable from 2024 despite tariff adjustments. Domestic PP production continued to operate below capacity, reinforcing Brazil's reliance on imports for key downstream sectors such as packaging and automotive components. Looking ahead, Brazil's trade defense momentum is set to intensify through 2026. Participants expect the government to maintain a protectionist stance to restore competitiveness and narrow the polymer trade deficit. Additional investigations into other polymer grades and potential safeguard measures are under discussion. For downstream users, the evolving tariff landscape will require adjustments in sourcing strategies and cost management as Brazil seeks to rebalance its polymer markets. By Fred Fernandes and Isabela Mendes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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