Viewpoint: Reticent offtakers delay US H2 investments

: Hydrogen
25/12/31

It had become a maxim among US hydrogen developers: Give us regulatory certainty and we will build the projects. The federal guidelines eventually came, but buyers remained conspicuously absent, pushing long-awaited financial investment decisions (FID) into 2026, or even beyond.

Few companies were more emblematic of the sector's challenges than energy titan ExxonMobil.

As President Donald Trump's rollback of clean energy incentives threatened to upend 45V, the hydrogen production tax, ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods advocated for the incentive during company earnings calls, noting government support was necessary to kickstart the sector before market forces eventually allowed it to stand on its own.

As it became clear that 45V would survive, albeit in a truncated form, Woods' message shifted, warning that the company was pushing a decision on its massive Baytown, Texas, low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia project until the end of 2025 to see if offtakers materialized.

Despite tentative agreements with Japan's Marubeni and European trading house Trammo, ExxonMobil suspended the project indefinitely, a potential deathblow given that projects must break ground by the end of 2027 to qualify for 45V.

"While we're convinced that low-carbon hydrogen will be required for the world to achieve net zero… the markets and customer base are developing slowly," said Woods at the company's corporate plan update in early December. "We're inventorying our work on this project until the market catches up."

Other projects in Texas that were supposed to have reached FID in 2025 and remain undecided include HIF Global's e-fuels project and Avina's blue and green hydrogen project near the city of Corpus Christi. StormFisher's green hydrogen project in north Texas remains undecided and Plug Power suspended a renewable hydrogen facility in central Texas.

Meanwhile, most of these companies are pursuing projects in Canada, South America, and Europe, where the regulatory environment is seen as more favorable.

While the hype that characterized the sector when the administration of former President Joe Biden first conceived of 45V has dissipated, some projects dedicated to low-carbon ammonia and other derivatives appear to be moving forward and should come to a final decision in the next 12 months.

Danish electrolyzer manufacturer Topsoe continues to see opportunity in the US, though the view is more muddled than before.

The company, which has supply agreements with First Ammonia and Synergen Green Energy, among others, expects some very advanced projects to reach FID in 2026, but its perspective of the five-to-10-year pipeline has been significantly reduced, Kim Hedegaard, chief executive for Power-to-X at Topsoe, told Argus in an interview.

"There are projects that we believe have a fairly high likelihood to go to FID within a 12-month time period," said Hedegaard. "Then there are the projects that could be interesting within a five-to-10 year period and then those we see as strategic partnerships. Heading into 2026, the size of the two latter boxes has decreased significantly with the change in landscape in the US."

The projects that they expect to move forward, he said, are characterized by "visionary leadership who understand these are the next steps in a larger transition". Both First Ammonia and Synergen plan to make green ammonia for export from the Texas Gulf coast.

The difference between those who move forward with Gulf Coast export-based projects and those that are stalled may come down to portfolio allocation. Both Synergen and First Ammonia are focused on projects in the US while others pondering Texas projects are evaluating those plans against a more diversified portfolio across the Americas where they made progress while the US was mired in a protracted legislative fight over 45V.

"Despite the fact that we see a slowdown in the US, we still see interest," said Hedegaard. "Slowdown doesn't mean a standstill."

By Jasmina Kelemen

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25/12/30

Viewpoint: Latam looks at domestic markets to spur H2

London, 30 December (Argus) — Latin American countries are assessing ways to promote domestic use of clean hydrogen as international demand fails to materialise. In line with the global mood, Latin America's hydrogen sector saw modest progress in 2025. But the past year has not brought the long-awaited first final investment decisions (FID), with lack of international demand one of the main culprits for sluggish project development. While Latin America still has export ambitions, the realisation that demand in Europe and east Asia will not materialise at the scale at which it was once anticipated has prompted countries to re-evaluate their strategies and shift focus towards fostering a domestic market. Some governments are now giving hydrogen a more defined role in their decarbonisation plans. Chile launched a $2.8bn tax credit scheme for domestic consumption of renewable hydrogen and derivatives in August, targeting the maritime and mining sectors. Applications for the first tranche of the tax benefits, with a budget of $700mn, are expected to open in early 2026. Although projects targeting exports will not benefit directly, the initiative is likely to support the industry as a whole. The programme will help reduce project risk and enable economies of scale, developers said. Brazil is also targeting hydrogen for domestic uses. The government is yet to finalise the rules of its own $3bn tax credit scheme, but the programme's law established that the benefit should prioritise projects with higher potential for national decarbonisation. Brazil would do well to take a leaf out of Chile's book — Brazil's large agricultural sector relies heavily on fertiliser imports and could offer significant demand for locally produced green fertilisers. Colombia recently unveiled a comprehensive action plan with initiatives to be implemented by 2030. The country's hydrogen strategy, first launched in 2021, needed to be revised to adapt to the current market realities, the government said. The new plan pays special attention to fostering a domestic market through potential introduction of mandates for use of renewable hydrogen for production of green fertilisers and in the mobility sector. It might be still too early to say to what extent these policy changes will help project development, and it is unclear whether other Latin American countries will follow. But fostering a domestic market, even a limited one, has been one of the most effective ways to launch the first projects. One of the region's most advanced projects, Atome's green fertiliser project in Paraguay has successfully secured several financing deals and 100pc offtake by targeting demand in the Mercosur countries. Milestones Some of these countries could reach important project milestones in 2026 as they start to clear obstacles such as permitting and infrastructure bottlenecks. Brazil's energy ministry recently approved two tenders in 2026 to expand the power grid, a move that could help address industry concerns about infrastructure . Chile's recent environmental approval of projects in Antofagasta and Magallanes will probably accelerate the development of key projects. Clearing permitting is one of the most lengthy stages of project development, companies have often said. Some firms aim to take FID in 2026, including a few of Brazil's flagship projects . But developers have often pushed back project timelines, and securing long-term offtake remains the main challenge for projects worldwide. Although the market is developing slowly, long-term prospects for competitive renewable hydrogen production in the region remain promising, according to industry participants. US electrolyser manufacturer Electric Hydrogen recently expanded its operations into Brazil, its first entry into Latin America. The region offers "one of the most compelling economic cases" for large-scale hydrogen and derivatives projects, the firm said. Latin America's close relationship to China could also benefit the local industry. Chinese developer Envision could leverage its expertise as the operator of one of the largest renewable ammonia projects globally to its planned project in Brazil's Pecem complex . By Pamela Machado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Critical year ahead for India's H2 plans

25/12/29

Viewpoint: Critical year ahead for India's H2 plans

Mumbai, 29 December (Argus) — India's renewable hydrogen sector enters 2026 with rising momentum but also increased pressure to convert its ambitions into bankable projects. This is shaping up to be a decisive year during which it must close regulatory gaps, clarify subsidy rules and accelerate infrastructure upgrades to avoid further delays to production targets. New Delhi has concluded several subsidy tenders, underlining its ambition to position India as a global hub for renewable hydrogen and derivatives. But progress on the ground remains slow. Officials now concede that the original target of producing 5mn t/yr of renewable hydrogen by 2030, first set in 2022, is unrealistic . The government has lowered expectations to 3mn t/yr by 2030 and pushed back the 5mn t/yr milestone to 2032. It blames the delay on factors out of its control, such as shifting EU policy signals and the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) October decision to postpone a vote on its net-zero framework. But developers point also to domestic issues such as regulatory bottlenecks, uneven grid access and slow progress on securing offtake agreements. India's latest renewable ammonia tender, for which auctions were concluded in August , still faces unresolved details and outstanding questions , leaving significant work needed before implementation. Letters of award have been issued, but producers still need to sign supply agreements with state-owned Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), which will then execute sales contracts with fertilizer companies. These agreements were initially expected by the end of this year but are now likely to be delayed by several months into 2026. The main obstacle is that the payment security mechanism — a financial safeguard — still lacks critical detail, including whether it guarantees full recovery of payments in case of buyer default, repayment timeline and the funding source. There is also no clarity on who will cover the cost gap between fossil-based and renewable ammonia. And momentum has stalled on India's planned green methanol tender. Authorities had originally aimed to launch the tender in March 2026 , but the timeline has been pushed back after the IMO deferred its net zero framework vote. India's ports will play a leading role in aggregating demand, with Deendayal Port in the western state of Gujarat positioning itself as a future hub. The port plans to invite expressions of interest soon for projects totalling about 150,000 t/yr of e-methanol production capacity. Powering up Beyond policy, India faces structural challenges in its power sector. The government's 5mn t/yr hydrogen target would require roughly 125GW of additional renewable energy capacity. While India's renewable energy buildout, particularly for solar, has accelerated, transmission infrastructure has not kept pace . Developers cite inadequate grid buildout and missing last-mile connectivity for hydrogen and ammonia projects as some of the hurdles that need to be overcome. Greater alignment among states is also needed. A patchwork of rules, fees and levies is inflating project risks and complicating electricity delivery from renewable assets to hydrogen production sites. These uncertainties are adding to pressure on projects that are already racing against subsidy-linked timelines. Some developers are pressing ahead and winners of the first renewable hydrogen tender are targeting offtake agreements and final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2026, ahead of a 2027 commissioning deadline. But most projects are not expected to stay on schedule. Slow progress is also putting electrolyser manufacturers under strain and threatening their eligibility for government support. Many renewable hydrogen projects remain in early development and are a long way from placing equipment orders, leaving manufacturers that won government subsidies in a difficult position. Companies that were awarded support in the first electrolyser tender must commission their factories by August 2026, but several warn they may need to delay commissioning because orders are not yet materialising. Manufacturers have asked for a solution, but the government has yet to clarify whether it will extend the timelines. Turning points These challenges mean the year ahead will be critical for turning India's early policy initiatives into tangible progress. The government must resolve subsidy and payment security gaps, accelerate grid strengthening, harmonise inter-state regulatory inconsistencies and help developers lock in offtake agreements that can support financing. India's renewable hydrogen sector has retained its momentum, but 2026 will determine whether that momentum translates into project FIDs and construction — or whether timelines are stretched further into the next decade. By Akansha Victor Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge

25/12/23

Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge

London, 23 December (Argus) — A UN Cop 30 climate summit pledge, known as "Belem 4x", to quadruple "sustainable fuels" use over 2024-35 has so far drawn 27 signatories, including major biofuels producers and consumers. But such a substantial increase could face constraints, including feedstock and land availability, and will depend on supportive legislation. The signatories pledged at Cop 30 to "expand sustainable fuels use globally by at least four times by 2035 from 2024 levels", including by "adopting ambitious national policies". Sustainable fuels, in the context of the pledge, refers to liquid biofuels, biogases, "low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels", according to energy watchdog the IEA. The pledge follows an IEA report in October developed for the Cop 30 presidency, which found that a fourfold increase "is ambitious yet achievable". Under the IEA scenario, liquid and gaseous biofuels would meet around two-thirds of sustainable fuel demand in 2030, while hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels would "expand rapidly" after 2030. Cop 30 host Brazil proposed the pledge in September , based on the IEA's preliminary findings, and the commitment was launched with India, Italy and Japan at the pre-Cop event in Brasilia, Brazil in October. The pledge now has 27 signatories from Latin and North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, encompassing sustainable fuels producers and consumers. Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the Netherlands are among the signatories. The pledge "sends an important political signal: scaling up sustainable fuels is not only necessary for climate goals, but feasible", the European Waste-based and Advanced Biofuels Association (Ewaba) told Argus . "Europe's biodiesel sector shows how sustainable biofuels can strengthen energy security, reduce import dependence and deliver immediate climate benefits using existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure," Ewaba added. Rising demand Sustainable fuels are typically used in transport sectors, which are among the highest-emitting, particularly in advanced economies. Although transport electrification is expanding, it is typically not moving fast enough to hit climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement, while shipping and aviation will require multiple decarbonisation solutions. Hydrogen and related fuels are also likely to see uptake from industry and power generation. Global demand for sustainable fuels doubled over 2010-24, and is already expected to grow this decade, boosted by policies designed to drive emissions reductions and support energy security. Conversely, the removal of tax credits for electric vehicles in the US, and recent weakening of the EU target for zero-emission cars are also likely to support increased biofuels consumption. The full implementation of existing and announced policies and targets, "plus the removal of market barriers, could lead to a near-doubling of sustainable fuel use in just six years", the IEA said. This could attract investment for new production capacity, it added. It also recommended prioritising infrastructure and supply chain development, as well as innovation funds for new technologies. The IEA found that sustainable fuels could cover 10pc of road transport demand, 15pc of aviation demand and 35pc of shipping fuel demand by 2035 — although it would "vary widely" by region. In an accelerated case, the IEA found that liquid biofuels could provide 8.07EJ in energy in 2030, up by 62pc from 2024 levels. The picture shifts by 2035 in the scenario, with biogas supply more than doubling and low-emissions hydrogen more than quadrupling, both from 2030. Land-use concerns But a near-term focus on increased biofuels production sparked concerns from several organisations about feedstock availability and the land conversion implications. "Such a massive uptake in biofuels could have calamitous consequences for the environment and climate, depending on how this pledge is interpreted," European non-governmental organisation (NGO) Transport & Environment (T&E) said. It flagged land cleared for crops such as palm oil, soy, sugarcane and corn. T&E projections show that "under current growth trends and policies, 90pc of biofuels will still be reliant on food and feed crops by 2030." The IEA noted "limited" expansion opportunities for biofuels from waste oils and fats, while it recommended improving crop yields for other feedstocks. But climate change is likely to hamper crop output. The UN Environment Programme warned recently that under a ‘business as usual' pathway, land degradation "is expected to continue at current rates, with the world losing fertile and productive land the size of Ethiopia or Colombia annually". Cop pledges often aim to drive an existing trend faster, and this is typically evident in the signatories — a coalition of the willing. Brazil has vast ethanol production capacity and strong domestic consumption mandates, like India, while another signatory, Chile, is forging ahead with renewable hydrogen production. The pledges, like all climate action, rely on strong policy, but commitment from key countries is more likely to achieve results. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

25/12/16

EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

Adds details on credits, transport commissioner comment in paragraphs 4-6 Brussels, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed a new 90pc cut in car fleet emissions by 2035, replacing the previously agreed 100pc target that would have effectively phased out the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from that date The plan would allow some new ICE vehicles to remain on sale beyond 2035, alongside plug-in hybrids, range extenders and mild hybrids, as well as electric and hydrogen cars. The remaining 10pc of emissions would need to be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels, according to the commission. The proposals need to be adopted by a majority in the European Parliament and among EU states. Automakers could also "bank and borrow" credits between 2030-32 to help meet the existing 2030 target of a 55pc cut from 2021 levels. Under the new proposals, manufacturers using these flexibilities would only need to achieve a 40pc fleet-average reduction, down from a previously planned 50pc. The commission indicated that credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) savings from e-fuels and biofuels can compensate up to 3pc of manufacturers' reference targets for 2035 and low-carbon steel credits can compensate for a further 7pc. Transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said the credit system will boost uptake of sustainable fuels. "This is a clear signal than other technologies than battery electric vehicles (BEV) can be put on the market after 2035," said Tzitzikostas. Expanded carbon-neutral criteria would allow sustainable biofuels to help meet the targets that currently require 0g/km from 2035. EU renewable ethanol group ePure said emissions from ethanol were 79pc lower than fossil fuels in 2024, in line with previous years. The European Biodiesel Board reported savings of 77-81pc for biodiesel, using the official fossil fuel comparator of 94g of CO2e/MJ. German MEP Peter Liese criticised the original ICE ban, but said industry problems stem from market shifts, not from Brussels. "The industry must stop shifting the blame for its own mistakes and for market developments, for example in China, onto Brussels," he said, adding that he will push for green steel recognition before 2035. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

25/12/11

EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

London, 11 December (Argus) — The European Commission could fund a much larger share of research in the coal and steel industry from 2027, according to a staff working document published yesterday. The EU Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS) would fund 70pc of corporate research and 100pc of academic research into green initiatives if the EU moves forth with the proposal. It currently funds 50pc of both corporate and academic research projects, but has struggled to attract participants or meet its spending targets, noting that the "underspending of the project is rooted in a lack of attractiveness of certain aspects of the programme". RFCS spent 57pc of its €43mn ($50mn) budget for large coal projects and only 31pc of its €208mn budget for steel research from 2021 to 2024. Brussels, troubled by a lack of applications, consulted companies and academics this year and found that its spending requirements were the largest barrier. Most were unable or unwilling to fund 50pc of large research projects themselves. RFCS has supported a number of groups hoping to repurpose old coal mines for clean energy. GreenJOBS and Mine-TO-H2, two funding recipients, both plan on making green hydrogen from mine water, while GrEnMine received pilot funding worth €3.5mn to research new ways to store gravitational energy in abandoned mines. Others, such as REM and GI-mine, are working on new methods to capture methane from coal mines. In the steel sector, RFCS has awarded funds to hydrogen power projects such as ProSynteg and HYDREAMS and research groups such as BIOCODE, which hopes to replace up to 10pc of the coal in coke ovens with biomass. The EU dissolved the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) — an agency tasked with making a common European steel market, which eventually led to the creation of the EU — in 2002. The EU used revenues from ECSC assets to launch and fund the RFCS in the same year, and boosted the programme in 2021 by tapping into the assets themselves. By Austin Barnes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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