North EU HRC futures firming on CME

: Metals
26/01/07

CME north EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures prices continued to increase today, shrugging off the quiet pervading the physical market.

Two second-quarter strips traded at €676/t ($790/t) during the morning session and there was appetite for more sales, derivatives participants said. The last bid for second-quarter HRC during morning trading came in at €676/t. March material traded at €663/t and €665/t. A January-April spread traded at -€33/t, reflecting expectations of firmer pricing going forward because of supply constraints. On screen, April HRC traded at up to €680/t, higher by €7/t from the previous day's settlement, before slipping back to €674/t. May and June prices both increased by €13/t to €686/t.

March supply was offered at a €25/t discount to the fourth quarter, indicating a price of around €690/t for later in the year, a trader said. This offer would put the EU fourth-quarter contract at almost parity with the US fourth-quarter HRC contract on the CME, based on yesterday's settlement of around $888/short ton, equating to around $805/t. No sale had occurred from this offer by 11:55 GMT and appetite was expected to be limited, sources said. More momentum is anticipated in the near term.

Today's price strength may be a result of a rally in Chinese coking coal futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, some sources said. Others said strength was likely driven by firmer sentiment in the EU steel market on the back of impending supply constraints. Strength could be because import supplies are now restricted as the Indian and Turkish first-quarter HRC imports quotas are fully exhausted and almost 80pc exhausted, respectively, and because of the different risk-reward paradigm presented by the CBAM, one source said.

Quayside supplies of material that cleared customs in the fourth quarter and in this quarter so far are sufficient to prevent domestic prices increasing too much, some physical buyers said. Offers for positional Indian cargoes came in at €620/t effective inclusive of CBAM, a buyer said.

By Colin Richardson

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

26/01/08

Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec

Mexico City, 8 January (Argus) — Mexico's inflation decelerated to an annual 3.69pc in December, the lowest reading for the month since 2020, mainly driven by slowing agriculture and energy prices, alongside some easing in core inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) eased from 3.80pc in November, statistics agency Inegi said Thursday, after accelerating from 3.57pc in October. Inflation has trended higher since July, when it stood at 3.51pc — the lowest annual headline reading since December 2020. The annual figure was down from 4.21pc in December 2024 and marked the lowest year-end reading since 3.15pc in December 2020. The result came in below the 3.6pc forecast by Mexican bank Banamex, "interrupting the upward trend recorded since August, which we anticipate will resume in January." The bank added that full-year inflation for 2025 was below the historical average of 4.4pc. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.33pc in December from 4.43pc in November, after accelerating from 4.28pc in October. This marked an eighth consecutive month above 4pc — the upper bound of the central bank's target range. Within core inflation, consumer goods eased to 4.30pc from 4.37pc in November, while services slowed to 4.35pc in December from 4.49pc. Among the largest contributors to CPI in December, weighted by Inegi, were tourism-related components, particularly airfare and long-distance bus fares ahead of the holiday season. Non-core inflation decelerated to 1.61pc in December from 1.73pc in November, remaining below 2pc in five of the past six months. Agriculture prices — especially fruits and vegetables — have been subdued this year by favorable weather conditions, although pressures are beginning to build. Annual inflation for fruits and vegetables contracted by 5.62pc in December, compared with contractions of 7.79pc in November and 10.27pc in October. The segment has faced rising inflationary pressure, Mexican bank Banorte said, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in November and nationwide roadblocks organized by freight truck associations in December. Energy price inflation slowed to 0.18pc in December from 0.54pc in October and 1.07pc in September. Inflation in the segment has remained contained since President Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary regular gasoline price cap of Ps24/l ($5.05/USG) for six months. Looking ahead, Banamex expects an increase in merchandise inflation at the start of 2026 due to higher tariffs and taxes, forecasting headline and core inflation to end 2026 at 4.3pc and 4.2pc, respectively. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil slab exports rise by 20pc in 2025

26/01/07

Brazil slab exports rise by 20pc in 2025

Sao Paulo, 7 January (Argus) — Brazilian slab exports surged by 19.6pc to 7.29mn metric tonnes(t) in 2025, supported by volumes to the US, customs data show. Slab is a semi-finished steel product used in rolling mills to make hot-rolled coils and plates, among other flat products. Brazilian mills shipped 4.83mn t of slab to the US, up by 12pc from 2024, defying market expectations for a decline following a 50pc tariff on all US steel imports that took effect on 4 June. Sellers have absorbed some of the higher costs by lowering prices to secure deals, sources said. US tariffs weakened Brazil-Canada slab trade because lower US demand for finished Canadian steel reduced Canadian demand for slab. Shipments from Brazil to Canada fell last year by 85.5pc to 56,982t. Brazilian mills turned to alternative markets to reduce their dependence on US trade. As a result, exports to Europe and other South American countries increased. Mexico imported 473,559t of Brazilian slab throughout the year, up by 56.8pc from the same period in 2024. Brazilian slab producers tripled shipments to Argentina to 334,030t in 2025. Exports to France more than doubled to 290,917t from 122,121t in 2024, shipments to Poland jumped six-fold to 246,226t. By Isabel Filgueiras Brazilian slab exports t Country 2025 2024 Difference ±% US 4,832,673 4,311,998 520,675 12.1 Mexico 473,559 301,958 171,601 56.8 France 290,917 122,121 168,796 138.2 Poland 246,226 36,441 209,785 575.7 Argentina 334,030 95,581 238,449 249.5 Canada 56,982 393,702 -336,720 -85.5 Peru 151,998 63,324 88,674 140.0 Total 7,293,071 6,096,126 1,196,945 19.6 Brazil's ministry of development, industry and foreign trade data compiled by Global Trade Tracker Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nickel prices hit 15-month high on robust sentiment

26/01/07

Nickel prices hit 15-month high on robust sentiment

Beijing, 7 January (Argus) — Nickel prices on trading exchange platforms hit new highs on 6 January, bolstered by robust sentiment on the back of macroeconomic developments and potential changes to Indonesia's mining plans. The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices hit $18,045/t on 6 January, up by 7pc from a day earlier and exceeding $18,000/t for the first time in 15 months. Prices started to climb from $14,430/t on 17 December 2025, surging by 20pc on 6 January in just 12 trading days. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) nickel prices hit their 8pc daily limit on 6 January as well. Nickel prices have been driven by rising copper prices. Copper prices surged above $13,000/t to hit a new high because financial investors were concerned over tight global availability of copper refined metal stemming from the US' capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro . The metals sector could continue on an uptrend if geopolitical tensions escalate further, driven by risk-averse sentiment. End-user demand is not the major driver for the nickel price surge, but the increase in nickel prices have boosted prices of nickel downstream products. Argus -assessed prices for stainless steel 304 2.0mm cold-rolled coil rose to 13,400-13,500 yuan/t ($1,914-1,929/t) on 7 January from Yn12,800-12,900/t ($1,829-1,843/t) on 18 December 2025. Demand strengthened slightly because end-users were concerned about further increases in stainless steel prices. A major Chinese stainless steel mill raised its ex-works prices by Yn100/t on 23 December 2025 and by Yn300/t on 5 January, reflecting a rise in production costs due to higher nickel prices. Most market participants expect the nickel price outlook in 2026 to be steady from 2025 because they do not anticipate significant changes in supply and demand fundamentals. The average nickel price was $15,349/t in 2025, down from $17,049/t in 2024 because of an increase in market supply, according to Argus data. But price upsides are possible this year, since major producer Indonesia may introduce policies that could reduce supply or increase production costs. Indonesia could also cut its nickel ore work plan and budget (RKAB) to 250mn t in 2026 from around 379mn t in 2025, market participants said. This potential cut comes despite expectations that Indonesian nickel ore consumption will increase to around 330mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) in 2026, up by 11pc from 2025, Argus' estimates show. Indonesia's trade ministry on 17 December also issued a ministerial regulation on procedures for setting the export benchmark price (HPE) and reference price (HR) for mining and metallic products. This has renewed market discussions that Indonesia may again explore the possibility of such tariffs, putting upward pressure on nickel prices. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican Jan-Nov steel exports to US down 30pc

26/01/06

Mexican Jan-Nov steel exports to US down 30pc

Houston, 6 January (Argus) — Mexican steel exports to the US fell by 30pc to 1.46mn metric tonnes (t) between January-November amid the ongoing US global steel tariffs. The US in June 2025 imposed a 50pc tariff on all steel imports, with the exception of imports from the UK, which are subject to 25pc tariffs. The US was formerly Mexico's largest steel buyer. Mexico's total steel exports fell by 18pc to 2.25mn t through November compared with the same period of 2024. Mexico turned more exports to Canada and Guatemala, with those countries' January-November imports from Mexico rising by 67pc year-over-year to 177,000t and 57pc to 96,000t, respectively. Steel imports to November fell by 15pc compared with the same period of 2024 to 9.7mn t ahead of Mexico's imposition of increased steel tariffs on non-trade treaty countries on 15 December. Imports from the US were steady at 3.6mn t, while imports from Japan fell by 9pc to 1.54mn t and from South Korea by 17pc to 1.52mn t over the same period. Mexico's January-November steel production slipped by 9pc year-over-year to 15.47mn t. The most-produced products were rebar, hot-rolled coil (HRC) and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG). January-November consumption also extended a nearly two-year slide, falling by 10pc year-over-year to 23mn t. Mexico's most-consumed steel products were HDG, HRC and cold-rolled coil. By Marialuisa Rincon Mexican finished steel YTD 000s of metric tonnes, except ±% Nov-25 Nov-24 Difference ±% Production Rebar 3,455 3,554 -99 -2.8% Hot-rolled coil (HRC) 3,082 3,447 -365 -10.6% Hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) 2,869 3,145 -276 -8.8% Total* 15,468 16,898 -1,430 -8.5% Consumption HDG 4,125 4,252 -127 -3% HRC 4,027 4,706 -679 -14.4% Cold-rolled coil (CRC) 3,839 4,527 -688 -15.2% Total 22,993 25,597 -2,604 -10.2% Imports by country US 3,597 3,591 6 0.2% Japan 1,539 1,686 -147 -8.7% South Korea 1,526 1,827 -301 -16.5% Imports by product Alloyed 1,804 1,680 124 7.4% HDG 1,423 1,547 -124 -8% CRC 1,178 1,657 -479 -28.9% Total 9,774 11,440 -1,666 -14.6% Exports by country US 1,463 2,082 -619 -29.7% Canada 177 106 71 67% Guatemala 96 61 35 57.4% Exports by product Seamless tube 599 636 -37 -5.8% Wire 272 295 -23 -7.8% Tube with seams ≤ 406.4 mm 238 304 -66 -21.7% Total 2,248 2,741 -493 -18% Source: Canacero Totals include other products than those listed in this spreadsheet. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Copper surges past $13,000/t as bull run gains pace

26/01/06

Copper surges past $13,000/t as bull run gains pace

London, 6 January (Argus) — London Metal Exchange (LME) official copper prices surged past $13,000/t to reach a new record high today, as financial investors scrambled for safe-haven products in the aftermath of US military action in Venezuela. The latest buying poured fuel on an existing bull run in prices driven by concerns over tight global availability of refined metal owing to a renewed rise in shipments to the US. The three-month copper price closed at $13,230/t in the official morning session today, up by 3.04pc on the day and by 5.8pc since 2 January, the last session before the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro by US forces over the weekend. Copper prices were supported throughout 2025 by financial investors seeking alternatives to silver and gold in their flight to safe-haven assets because of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The mini-spike in copper prices since 2 January is in line with similar movements in alternative safe-haven products, such as platinum group metals. Copper prices began to rise sharply at the tail end of last year, increasing by 13.9pc over 28 November-2 January. Prices were supported by central bank interest rate cuts and a renewed uptick in shipments to the US owing to speculation that the US administration under President Donald Trump would revisit its plans to impose tariffs on refined copper imports. Expectation that Trump would implement tariffs of 25-50pc drove a huge surge of shipments to the US in the first seven months of 2025, as trading firms sought to build up stockpiles of tariff-free copper. The pace of shipments slowed after the US decided in late July not to impose tariffs on copper cathode, but the arbitrage between copper contracts on the US Comex exchange and the LME did not drop off sufficiently to completely reverse the change in global trade flow towards the US. Speculation that Trump may decide to put tariffs on copper this year returned in the fourth quarter, causing US imports of refined copper to increase again. US trade data is lagging because of the country's government shutdown in October-November, but data from vessel-tracking service Kpler indicate refined copper shipments in December surged to their highest level since July. Volumes tracked by Kpler for December are on par with those recorded in May 2025, when the US imported 220,000t. Copper stored in Comex warehouses rose to 503,373t on 5 January, up by 95pc from the end of July. LME on-warrant warehouse stocks of copper recovered briefly in August-November following the US' tariff reprieve, but stocks have fallen again, reaching 114,200t on 6 January, down by 27pc from 2 December. And critically, the LME recovery was slightly misleading in terms of diversity of supply, as 95pc of on-warrant stocks held by the LME at the end of November were from China and Russia, which are not deliverable to Comex, the most recent LME country-of-origin data show. This Chinese-Russian share of LME on-warrant stocks is up from 73pc in November 2024, highlighting the extent to which the global backstop inventory of copper from other origins has evaporated. Copper supply concerns are not only being driven by the renewed flow of metal to the US. The latest uplift in prices was arguably sparked more directly by a 1 December announcement that Chinese copper smelters — which account for about 11mn t/yr of primary capacity — plan to cut their utilisation rates by at least 10pc this year, in response to negative copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). And further signals have emerged that supply of copper concentrate to smelters will continue to be a major risk factor in the near term, most notably with the benchmark annual TC/RC settlement between major Chinese smelter Jiangxi Copper and Chilean mining firm Antofagasta concluding at $0/t and 0.0¢/lb, respectively, down from $21.25/t and 2.125¢/lb in 2025. The decrease reflects expectations among markets participants of a 650,000–850,000t copper concentrate supply shortfall in 2026. Tight supply of refined metal and concentrate and the attention of financial investors on the copper market will remain the key support struts for copper prices going forward. Physical consumer demand has not been a major driver of the recent price surge. The two lauded drivers of copper demand — energy transition applications and data centres serving the artificial intelligence boom — are expected to fully kick in through the latter years of this decade. But it appears likely that the longer-term bull case for copper demand is feeding back into positive price sentiment whenever short-term issues intensify on the supply side, which may see the floor for any downward correction tick upwards through each new spike. By Ronan Murphy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more