Global hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have risen to their highest premium to rebar since mid-June 2025, according to Argus data.
Argus' global HRC tracker was at $561.19/t on 9 February, while the global rebar tracker was at $506.52/t.
Hot-rolled prices have been supported by an uptick in large import markets — particularly the US and Europe — on tariffs and reduced third-country penetration. Long products are less affected by these measures in volume terms, at least to the EU, because of smaller import quotas.
Manufacturing expectations and activity have also strengthened somewhat in the eurozone, supporting flat products. New manufacturing orders in Germany rose by 7.8pc in December compared with the previous month, according to Destatis, driven by growth in the manufacture of fabricated metal products and machinery and equipment.
Asian HRC prices have ticked up somewhat, supported by firmer manufacturing and regional demand outside of China. A tight slab market is also underpinning these increases — Asian HRC and slab export prices are almost at parity at present, with fob China HRC at $464/t and fob Asia slab at $463/t, and slab offers increasing week by week.
Rebar prices have been under pressure, with winter constraining construction activity in key markets. In the eurozone, the construction purchasing managers index (PMI) declined further into contraction territory in January, dropping to 45.3 from 47.4 in December, according to S&P Global.
In bellwether export market Turkey, exports are trading at an $11/t discount to HRC, the widest since 12 May 2025. Turkish mills are trimming domestic prices to stimulate demand, in competition with traders that are already selling at lower levels. Demand for Turkish material in Europe is muted because of impending quota changes.
Because of the weakness in longs prices, some producers are reducing output. At least four mills have reduced output in recent weeks, because of rising scrap costs, building finished product inventories and softening prices.
On the other hand, flat steel producers are ramping up run rates, at least in the largest import markets, predominantly because of rising tariff barriers. EU blast furnaces are currently running at nearly 85pc of capacity, while US electric arc furnace-based mills are at 81pc of capacity, according to data from Navigate Commodities. Chinese blast furnace production has been softening, contributing to weakness in raw material prices, and some traders are anticipating firmer margins for flat steel mills as a result.
The two trackers diverged similarly sharply a year ago, reaching a $58/t gap by the end of March 2025. Sources suggest that European and Turkish rebar prices are likely to find some seasonal domestic support, as the construction season begins — Italian rebar is unlikely to fall to the five-year lows it hit in summer last year as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) makes imports more expensive.
Turkish prices are also likely to pick up around April as major public housing projects start and as the scrap market is structurally tighter this year, but prospects for export relief are low due to mounting trade barriers.
One Turkish mill executive said his company was channeling more material into slab casting currently.
