Iranian missile strikes in the Middle East could further disrupt Group III shipments to the US and Europe, constraining supply and supporting prices further as seasonal demand picks up.
Mideast Gulf oil producers — including Group III base oil producing nations of Qatar, UAE and Bahrain — have been hit by missile and drones from Iran for the past three days, after the US–Iran conflict escalated.
Europe and the US are net importers of Group III base oils and shipments from these countries made up 31pc and 47pc of total imports respectively in 2025, Global Trade Tracker and US Energy Information Administration data show.
Several marine insurers have cancelled their war risk coverage in the Mideast Gulf and Gulf of Oman following the attacks, taking effect on 5 March.
Danish shipping firm Maersk redirected some upcoming ships away from the Suez Canal route on 27 February. And announced it would maintain Cape of Good Hope routings for its Asia-Europe services.
Shipment and logistic disruptions have supported Group III 4cst spot prices in the US and Europe since mid-January. Argus-assessed spot prices rose since then have risen by $22/t and $70/t to $1,071/t and $1,486.50/t respectively on 27 February.
Shipment delays occurred throughout 2025 as vessels diverted via the Cape of Good Hope over the Suez Canal as a result of Yemen's Houthis attacks in the Red Sea. This added an estimated 11 days of extra transit time to the US and Europe, but shipments through Suez looked to resume as attacks were paused.
If vessels are delayed again, this will support spot prices as it will affect availability at a time when demand rises seasonally. The spring oil-change season, ahead of the summer driving season, typically begins in March in the US and Europe.
This also comes as icy and adverse weather conditions are constraining shipments from Finland's Neste 250,000 t/yr Group III base oil unit, with weight and vessel restrictions currently in place.
