Europe's diesel and jet fuel benchmarks now include trades for delivery dates after the last Mideast Gulf cargoes are scheduled to arrive, meaning prices may now reflect a market physically shorter of supply.
The last Long Range (LR) tanker to reach Europe with diesel from the Mideast Gulf will probably be STI Sloane around 10 April, according to Vortexa. The last LR with jet fuel will probably be Rong Lin Wan on 11 April. The former loaded from Qatar and the latter from Kuwait. Both passed the Cape of Good Hope this week.
Leading price benchmarks in Europe assess diesel and jet fuel delivered between five and 25 days ahead of the assessment. That means the benchmarks began on 17 March to include deliveries after 10 April.
The absence of further cargoes will leave Europe significantly shorter of supply, since Mideast Gulf jet fuel and diesel supply usually meet around 15pc and 5pc of overall European demand respectively.
Diesel cargo premiums against front-month Ice gasoil futures have stepped up this week to around $100/t, from around $70/t at the start of the week. On the other hand, jet fuel premiums against the same futures contract have this week retreated below $500/t, from above that level last week. Jet fuel prices and premiums rallied extremely steeply earlier in the month.
European states are releasing emergency stocks to help balance markets. They will prioritise refined products over crude by a ratio of three-to-one, according to as-yet-incomplete data from the IEA If it were not for these releases, the prolonged closure of the strait of Hormuz could reduce non-emergency EU product stocks to decade-plus lows by the summer. Some governments have already taken unilateral action to support demand. Italy has temporarily cut tax on for the trucking industry, Greece has capped retail fuel margins, Slovakia has officially limited diesel purchase volumes, refiner Mol has taken a similar step privately in Slovenia.
There is very little compensating supply from Middle Eastern ports outside the strait of Hormuz. Product loadings from Saudi Red Sea ports have come to 1.26mn b/d so far in March, according to Vortexa, up from 1.19mn b/d in February, and 1.04mn b/d in March 2025. This increase is negligible compared with the 5mn-6mn b/d of product exports that have stopped coming through the strait.
There has been no increase in product loadings from Fujairah, the UAE's largest port outside the strait of Hormuz. Only around 250,000 b/d of products have loaded there so far in March, compared with around 590,000 b/d in February and 630,000 b/d in March 2025. The slowdown is probably connected with Iranian attacks. There has been a small slowdown in product loadings from Oman, outside the strait, since the war began.
