Germany's cabinet today presented a climate action programme with a strong focus on renewable power and industry electrification, encompassing 67 measures designed to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 27mn t/yr of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) until 2030, although the country's climate experts warned that it is unlikely to achieve these reductions.
The measures will plug the 25mn t CO2e annual reduction gap flagged in last year's official forecasts, environment minister Carsten Schneider said. The forecasts have since been superseded by data presented by federal environment office UBA earlier this month indicating a 42mn t/yr CO2e gap.
The main drivers of the action programme are additional tenders for onshore wind power capacity over 12GW, and an extra €2.9bn of subsidies for industry electrification projects.
The additional wind installations are expected to achieve emissions reductions of 6.5mn t CO2e in 2030 and lower wholesale power prices by €6/MWh, Schneider said. The majority will be installed in the relatively wind-poor but energy-hungry south of the country, or in priority areas, so it will not be affected by potential future legislation limiting grid access, Schneider said.
Industrial electrification subsidies are expected to lead to emissions reductions of 4.3mn t CO2e in 2030.
And Schneider stressed that his ministry expects the transport and buildings sectors, which have been lagging behind in recent years, to accelerate decarbonisation in the late 2020s.
A €3bn subsidy scheme with income-based support will allow for the purchase of about 800,000 electric vehicles, leading to emissions savings of 1mn t CO2e in 2030.
And the government expects the planned road transport GHG reduction quota now under parliamentary scrutiny to yield emissions reductions of 6.3mn t CO2e in 2030, while funding for new heat grids will save 2.3mn t CO2e in 2030.
Germany's land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector will receive €4.7bn across 23 measures including the rewetting of peatlands and conversion of forests, although the effects will be felt mainly after 2030, Schneider said.
Proposals by the economy ministry, which would take pressure off fossil fuel heating systems, are likely to be counterbalanced by the current energy crisis, Schneider said, as homeowners buying a new heating system are now likely to think differently about investing in another gas-fired system.
The climate action plan will make Germany "more modern and more independent of oil and gas", Schneider said, reducing its natural gas consumption by almost 7 bcm³ in 2030 and its petrol consumption by about 4bn litres — down by 9pc on current annual levels, Schneider said.
The government was legally obliged to present a climate action programme under the country's climate action law, and it must also be scrutinised by parliament. Germany aims to cut its emissions by 65pc in 2030 compared with 1990 levels. They stood 48pc below 1990 levels last year.
The country's council of experts on climate change ERK, tasked with scrutinising the programme, said today that it lacks novelty and ambition and is unlikely to achieve the expected reductions. The ERK, which said it was commenting subject to a more detailed review, criticised the government's strong focus on the energy sector and its insufficient relief for households on low and middle incomes, particularly in the heating sector, even though the need for social measures to accompany climate change policy will continue to grow.
The ERK urged the government to look at more innovative measures such as "white certificates" for energy efficiency or a bonus-malus system for cars.
It is "questionable" whether the programme's measures "adequately" address the challenge of restructuring Germany's fossil fuel-dependent "capital stock", Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research chief economist Ottmar Edenhofer said.
It lacks "credible" policy instruments providing "clear incentives" to switch to technologies such as electric cars or heat pumps, added Edenhofer, who is also chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
Germany's solar association BSW flagged the "gap between aspiration and reality", given the economy and energy ministry's plans to axe support for small-scale rooftop solar systems.
And German wood industry association HDH warned against restrictions to forestry management, which it said will limit the supply of raw materials for climate-friendly timber construction.
Environmental group DUH announced it will once again sue the government for the programme unless it is improved, particularly regarding the transport sector. DUH won a case against the government's previous climate action programme in January.
The climate action programme stands on "shaky ground", think-tank Agora Energiewende director Julia Blaesius warned, given that it is based on outdated data and in light of planned legislation changes.
Blaesius emphasised the importance of a "reliable" carbon price to provide planning and investment security to households and companies, as well as revenues for Germany's climate and transformation fund, which finances much of the programme's measures.
