TTF front month drops on ceasefire, holds above winter

: Natural gas
26/04/08

Near-term prices at the Dutch TTF gas hub fell in today's morning trading session on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran and efforts to resume LNG production in Qatar.

The front-month price opened at €42.90/MWh, 18pc lower than the previous day's close, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire of attacks. The price then rose above €45/MWh as traders corrected their positions, after the initial TTF open was seen as too low, market participants told Argus. The front-month contract then plunged at 13:15 BST on Bloomberg news that QatarEnergy was mobilising efforts to resume and ramp up LNG production at Ras Laffan, prompted by the ceasefire announcement, and the possibility of reopening the strait of Hormuz.

Trump said he would "suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks", subject to co-operation from Iran. Iranian foreign affairs minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that "for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the strait of Hormuz will be possible via co-ordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations".

The front-month contract stood at €43.425/MWh at the time of writing, its lowest since 27 February, but well above the €31.51/MWh on 27 February — the day before the conflict started. But despite the reduced prices pointing to a potential easing of supply, it is unclear whether the US and Iran will honour their agreement, as the US has already bombed an Iranian oil refinery since the ceasefire was announced.

The TTF May price has dropped the most of any contract, as keeping the passage via Hormuz open in the coming two weeks could allow LNG cargoes to arrive to Europe from May at the earliest. And even if the cargoes were delivered to Asia, stronger supply in the Pacific could reduce that region's appetite for Atlantic basin spot cargoes, in turn leaving more of this LNG available for Europe.

Winter price remains at a discount to summer months

The ceasefire news weighed more heavily on contracts for summer delivery than on the winter 2026-27 price.

A potential return of LNG supply transiting the strait of Hormuz to the global balance would result in more available supply in Europe over the summer. That said, the supply outlook for this summer remains tight because of competition with Asia during Qatar's production ramp-up and structurally lower LNG output from Ras Laffan due to earlier attacks. And it is unclear if the ceasefire will extend past the two-week mark. That said, summer contracts' premiums to the coming winter have narrowed throughout today's session, with the May-winter 2026-27 spread narrowing by about €0.70/MWh from the previous close (see table).

The EU has net injected 614 GWh/d over 1-7 April, and storage sites stood at 28.8pc full. Storage sites entered the gas summer at its lowest fill level since 2022, and have to be 90pc full by 1 October-1 December to meet EU-mandated filling targets. Abundant LNG supply over the rest of the summer could aid the filling task, and alleviate some of the pressure on the summer months' contracts.

Further out, the 2027 contract was at €35.84/MWh at about 14:00 BST, 12pc lower than on Tuesday's close at €40.905/MWh. This could point to easing concerns over tight supply over coming years. The 2028-30 yearly contracts also fell, but the fall was less stark.

By Alejandro Moreano

Summer month-winter spreads		€/MWh
Contracts	Argus close on 7 April	Ice trading on 8 April*
May-winter 2026-27	1.380	0.683
June-winter 2026-27	1.470	0.853
July-winter 2026-27	1.435	1.015
August-winter 2026-27	1.355	0.848
September-winter 2026-27	1.245	0.848
*closest spread taken at the time of writing
— Intercontinental exchange (Ice), Argus

TTF trading on 8 April €/MWh

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26/04/08

US-Iran talks to resume on 11 April: White House

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — US vice president JD Vance will lead the US delegation in talks with Iran scheduled to begin on 11 April in Islamabad, Pakistan, the White House said on Wednesday. The US and Iran on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire — presumably until 21 April — to allow for negotiations on an agreement to end the war permanently. Less than 24 hours after the announcement, the ceasefire looks fragile and the parties are offering conflicting accounts of key terms of the ceasefire and of a potential peace agreement. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran and in neighboring Mideast Gulf states continued in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. The Israel Defense Forces said it carried out attacks against targets in Iran overnight before adhering to the US-Iran ceasefire from Wednesday morning. Iran on Wednesday added an additional condition to the ceasefire agreement, demanding that Israel stop its ground and aerial attacks in Lebanon. "The US must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel," Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said in a social post on Wednesday. Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in a separate post accused the US of sending a drone into the Iranian airspace and also claimed that the ceasefire agreement called for a halt in hostilities in Lebanon. "In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiation is unreasonable," Ghalibaf said in a post. But the White House countered that the US-Iran ceasefire agreed on Tuesday did not call for a halt to Israel's attacks on its northern neighbor. Araqchi did not explicitly reference Lebanon in his initial announcement of a ceasefire. The White House downplayed tough statements from Iran, asserting that privately Tehran assured the US of its continued commitment to the ceasefire deal. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has yet to rise since the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, as shipowners wait for clarity on security arrangements and insurance cover for transits. The White House on Wednesday asserted that traffic through Hormuz is increasing and that it is monitoring Iran's adherence to that part of the ceasefire accord "minute by minute, hour by hour". The US and Iran have offered conflicting understandings of the terms of navigation through Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. Trump on Tuesday reposted a statement from Araqchi, who asserted that Iran's armed forces will "coordinate" navigation through Hormuz. Trump separately mulled joint US-Iranian control of traffic through the strait. But by Wednesday afternoon, the White House insisted that Trump views the ceasefire as requiring Tehran to ensure "free, safe and immediate reopening of the strait of Hormuz". The US has not "definitively accepted" Iran's demand for tolls on ships passing through Hormuz, the White House said. Trump has mulled a "joint venture" for the US and Iran that would control Hormuz, but in the near term, Trump wants to see Hormuz reopened unconditionally, the White House said. Terms of peace Trump's Tuesday announcement of a ceasefire with Iran referred to a 10-point peace proposal he deemed "workable", without specifying what those points were. Tehran then posted a list of 10 points it said would be part of an eventual agreement, including provisions securing Iran's control of Hormuz, full sanctions relief, withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East and protecting Iran's right to enrich uranium. Trump has pushed back on reports that the 10 points as described by Tehran are the same points he said he viewed as workable. The White House asserted that Iran on Tuesday "put forward a more reasonable and entirely different and condensed plan to the President and his team", which would serve as a basis for talks — without disclosing what those terms were. The 10-point proposal as described by Iran on Tuesday "was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump", the White House said. But in an earlier Wednesday social media post, Trump acknowledged at least one other point demanded by Iran: "We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran," Trump said. The Trump administration has offered multiple objectives behind its decision to launch a war against Iran. But on Wednesday, the White House listed a single "red line" to be upheld by Trump — "the end of enrichment in Iran". By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump defends concessions to Iran: Update

26/04/08

Trump defends concessions to Iran: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 8 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump on Wednesday said his decision to allow Iran to at least temporarily maintain control over the strait of Hormuz and to discuss full sanctions relief for Tehran was a "big day for World Peace". The US and Iran late on Tuesday Washington time announced a two-week ceasefire, during which the two countries will hold negotiations to finalize a peace agreement. The two countries' starting negotiating positions are far apart. But Trump confirmed at least one point demanded by Iran, relating to its chokehold on navigation through Hormuz. "For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday. Trump reposted the statement in full. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has yet to rise since the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, as shipowners wait for clarity on security arrangements and insurance cover for transits. Additional war risk premiums for transits through the Mideast Gulf, the strait of Hormuz and the Red sea are not expected to ease immediately despite a ceasefire announcement, market participants said. And energy infrastructure in Iran and the Mideast Gulf states remained under attack in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Rather than clarify questions over the status of the strait of Hormuz, Trump's statements only added to the confusion. On Wednesday morning, Trump asserted that there will be a "joint control" over the strait and that the US "will be helping with the traffic buildup in the strait of Hormuz". US vice president JD Vance, who could potentially lead the US negotiations with Iran, on Wednesday called the ceasefire "fragile", asserting that there are elements in the Iranian leadership who might be opposing talks with the US by misrepresenting the peace proposals under discussion. "You have people who clearly want to come to the negotiating table and work with us to find a good deal, and then you have people who are lying about even the fragile truce that we've already struck," Vance said in remarks in Budapest. Vance could potentially travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, for high-level talks with an Iranian delegation, "but nothing is final until announced by" Trump, the White House said on Wednesday. Iran's supreme national security council on Tuesday outlined a 10-point peace proposal, which included enshrining its control over Hormuz, lifting all sanctions on Iran, accepting of its right to nuclear enrichment, withdrawing of all US forces from the region and ending Israel's incursion into Lebanon. Trump in a rambling social media post on Tuesday evening lashed out at CNN for reporting details of Iran's 10-point plan as described by Tehran. Trump, in a social media post on Wednesday, added another denunciation of the references to details of Iran's 10-point proposal, which he said were circulated by "Fraudsters, Charlatans, and WORSE". There was only "one group of meaningful 'POINTS' that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these Negotiations," Trump said. But in an earlier Wednesday social media post, Trump acknowledged at least one other point demanded by Iran: "We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran," Trump said. The US has a 15-point counter-proposal, with provisions directly contravening the Iranian position, including over its nuclear program. Trump's hawkish anti-Iran loyalists in Congress appeared to be confused by his willingness to discuss Iranian demands that his predecessors previously refused to even consider. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), who defended Trump's decision to go to war with Iran without Congress' approval, said on Tuesday that Congress will need to have a say in any peace agreement Trump signs with Iran. Trump on Wednesday also threatened a 50pc tariff against any country that supplies Iran with weapons, even though the US Supreme Court has curtailed his ability to impose tariffs at will. Pentagon officials on Wednesday morning described the US operation as overwhelmingly successful and asserted that the US had forced Iran to capitulate. "Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it," defense secretary Pete Hegseth said. "We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory," Iran's supreme national security council said on Tuesday. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ceasefire to have limited impact on LNG for now

26/04/08

Ceasefire to have limited impact on LNG for now

London, 8 April (Argus) — The global LNG supply-demand balance is unlikely to be substantially altered by the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, because of expected continued uncertainty over shipping insurance, security and production facilities. Just under 1.2mn t of LNG across 15 carriers remains trapped west of the strait of Hormuz, data from vessel tracker Kpler show ( see table ). One vessel, the 155,000m³ Gaslog Skagen , has delivered to Kuwait's 24mn t/yr Al Zour LNG import terminal three times since the war in the Middle East began, and is charting a course for Al Zour at present. It is likely that these stranded cargoes will attempt an eastbound transit through the strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, traders said, but it is still unclear how transits will be accomplished. Two of these cargoes had attempted to transit the strait on 6 April, but were turned away, based on vessel-tracking data. It is unclear how many vessels could transit during this ceasefire period, and which vessels or commodities would be given priority. An average of 11 vessels/day transited the strait in the past five days, way below pre-war levels of around 125 daily transits. There are around 800 vessels carrying crude oil, refined products, metals and other goods trapped west of the strait of Hormuz. It will be difficult for all these carriers to exit the Mideast Gulf, traders said. Commodities destined for countries deemed "friendly" to Iran may be prioritised — including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan — market participants said, but nearly all cargo owners and shipowners are still awaiting instructions on how to transit the strait at present. Transit levels have not increased since the announcement of the ceasefire. Iran's reported demand for a $2mn toll fee for vessels transiting the strait will add to costs, with larger LNG carriers able to spread the cost more broadly across a larger cargo. Higher insurance costs from additional war risk premiums (AWRPs), higher calls from protection and indemnity clubs, as well as the potential need for kidnap and ransom cover are likely to prevent ballasting LNG carriers from westbound transits through the strait of Hormuz at present, traders said. It is also unclear which firms would be willing to provide cover for transits through the strait. A ballasting transit into the Mideast Gulf for loading a cargo would be likely to incur the $2mn fee twice, once on the way in and again on the way out, traders said. AWRPs for transits through the strait of Hormuz are only offered on a case-by-case basis, market participants said. War hull coverage for LNG carriers could be as high as 5pc of the vessel cost, compared with 0.2pc before the war, traders said. State-owned QatarEnergy (QE) is reported to have started mobilising workers in anticipation of resuming LNG production at the now 64.2mn t/yr Ras Laffan terminal. But it is unclear how quickly this could be achieved, and most market participants have allocated at least several weeks if not several months for production to fully ramp up at Ras Laffan. With most LNG shipowners unlikely to allow their vessels to transit the strait of Hormuz to load at Ras Laffan, QE could utilise its own fleet to load cargoes, but the company would still need to secure insurance cover. By Bonnie Lao LNG cargoes stranded in Mideast Gulf $/mn Btu Vessel Assumed cargo (t) Additional transit fee Rasheeda 117,000 0.33 Al Sahla 95,000 0.40 Al Kharaitiyat 95,000 0.40 Al Ghashamiya 95,000 0.40 Umm Al Amad 92,400 0.41 Mihzem 78,200 0.49 Patris 76,500 0.50 Lebrethah 76,500 0.50 Mraikh 76,500 0.50 Gaslog Skagen* 68,000 0.56 Al Daayen 66,700 0.57 Mubaraz 62,500 0.61 Fuwairit 60,700 0.63 Disha 60,000 0.64 Al Rayyan 45,500 0.84 *likely for Kuwait — Argus, Kpler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India may pull LNG from Atlantic despite ceasefire

26/04/08

India may pull LNG from Atlantic despite ceasefire

Mumbai, 8 April (Argus) — Indian LNG importers may still need to bid for uncommitted LNG cargoes from the Atlantic despite a ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran. Indian LNG importers are issuing a series of spot LNG tenders this week as global prices softened with weaker demand emerging out of Europe and other parts of Asia, which in turn may lead to shippers diverting their uncommitted Atlantic cargoes to India. Indian state-run refiner IOC has raised a total of two spot LNG tenders for prompt deliveries in April, and another for May. And fellow state-run firms BPCL, HPCL and GSPC are seeking cargoes for early May — marking a return of Indian LNG importer purchasing interest, after firms have been cautious with bookings since the Iran war began. Recent bookings were heard to be made at $17-18/mn Btu, mostly originating from Nigeria and Angola, that had previously supplied the Atlantic basin. But west African-loaded LNG has seen an open inter-basin arbitrage to Asia at a lower basis premium, as the voyage from Angola's Soyo LNG to India's Dahej would take 17 days travelling at a speed of 16 knots, compared with 26 days for a US Gulf Coast to Dahej voyage. Indian LNG importers had booked about five LNG cargoes over March and April, with supplies coming from Nigeria and Oman, paying about $18-22/mn Btu for prompt deliveries after raising more than 15 LNG tenders, some of which were ultimately not awarded as Indian buyers remained price-sensitive. A decline in spot LNG prices following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and US may encourage India to raise more prompt LNG tenders. The LNG price for delivery to west India in the first half of May fell to $15.10/mn Btu today — marking a new low since 3 March when it stood at $15.02/mn Btu. But transit of loaded LNG carriers through the strait of Hormuz is yet to resume, indicating Indian buyers may have to outbid European buyers to secure uncommitted Atlantic basin cargoes. The Indian des price for the second half of May stood at an outright discount of 11¢/mn Btu to the northwest European des price for the first half of the same month as of Tuesday, indicating little financial incentive for shippers of uncommitted Atlantic cargoes to divert their cargoes to India away from Europe. This then suggests Indian importers may have to raise their bids at least 11¢/mn Btu higher, and by an additional $1.14/mn Btu to account for extra freight costs to deliver a cargo to India over northwest Europe. Only one LNG carrier has diverted to India away from Europe recently — the 175,000m³ LNG Finima II has signalled for arrival at India's 17.5mn t/yr Dahej import terminal on 20 April, after previously indicating for France's 12.4mn t/yr Dunkirk facility, ship-tracking data from Kpler show. The supply disruption has changed India's LNG import dynamics since the war broke. But the pool has largely remained restricted to Oman and west Africa. Supplies from the US have not materialised much for LNG, as has been the case for LPG as Indian state-run oil marketing companies secured a total 800,000t of LPG from the US, Russia, Australia and other countries, the government said on 26 March. This is 40pc of India's monthly LPG imports. LPG and LNG are two competing fuels for Indian households with the former having the widest circulation in the country and also 60pc dependent on imports. The spot LNG requirements currently have largely been to meet demand for fertilisers ahead of the sowing season, domestic household gas needs, and to some extent for industries. New Delhi has initiated a full or partial curtailment of gas supplies to petrochemical plants as well as gas-fired power plants. By Rituparna Ghosh and Irfan Jaafar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump defends concessions to Iran

26/04/08

Trump defends concessions to Iran

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump on Wednesday said his decision to allow Iran to at least temporarily maintain control over the strait of Hormuz and to discuss full sanctions relief for Tehran was a "big day for World Peace". The US and Iran late on Tuesday Washington time announced a two-week ceasefire, during which the two countries will hold negotiations to finalize a peace agreement. The two countries' starting negotiating positions are far apart. But Trump confirmed at least one point demanded by Iran, relating to its chokehold on navigation through Hormuz. "For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday. Trump reposted the statement in full. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has yet to rise since the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, as shipowners wait for clarity on security arrangements and insurance cover for transits. Additional war risk premiums for transits through the Mideast Gulf, the strait of Hormuz and the Red sea are not expected to ease immediately despite a ceasefire announcement, market participants said. And energy infrastructure in Iran and the Mideast Gulf states remained under attack in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Rather than clarify questions over the status of the strait of Hormuz, Trump's statements only added to the confusion. On Wednesday morning, Trump asserted that there will be a "joint control" over the strait and that the US "will be helping with the traffic buildup in the strait of Hormuz". Iran's supreme national security council on Tuesday outlined a 10-point peace proposal, which included enshrining its control over Hormuz, lifting all sanctions on Iran, accepting of its right to nuclear enrichment, withdrawing of all US forces from the region and ending Israel's incursion into Lebanon. Trump in a rambling social media point on Tuesday evening lashed out at CNN for reporting details of Iran's 10-point plan as described by Tehran. But in a Wednesday social media post, Trump acknowledged at least one other point demanded by Iran: "We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran," Trump said. The US has a 15-point counter-proposal, with provisions directly contravening the Iranian position, including over its nuclear program. Trump's hawkish anti-Iran loyalists in Congress appeared to be confused by his willingness to discuss Iranian demands that his predecessors previously refused to even consider. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), who defended Trump's decision to go to war with Iran without Congress' approval, said on Tuesday that Congress will need to have a say in any peace agreement Trump signs with Iran. Trump on Wednesday also threatened a 50pc tariff against any country that supplies Iran with weapons, even though the US Supreme Court has curtailed his ability to impose tariffs at will. Pentagon officials on Wednesday morning described the US operation as overwhelmingly successful and asserted that the US had forced Iran to capitulate. "Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it," defense secretary Pete Hegseth said. "We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory," Iran's supreme national security council said on Tuesday. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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