India becomes net steel exporter but outlook uncertain

India transitioned to a net exporter of finished steel in the April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year after two consecutive years as a net importer. But trade barriers in Europe and geopolitical tensions complicate the export outlook this year.

Finished steel exports rose by 36pc year on year to 6.6mn t in 2025-26, exceeding imports by 78,000t, according to provisional data from the steel ministry's joint plant committee (JPC). The increase was driven by robust demand from Europe in the second half of 2025, as buyers stockpiled ahead of key trade policy changes in 2026.

Italy was India's largest export market, with shipments up by 51pc year on year to 1.07mn t in the fiscal year. Italy, Belgium and Spain together accounted for 34pc of India's total finished steel exports during the period.

Indian finished steel shipments to Vietnam also surged, supported by anti-dumping measures and an anti-circumvention probe into Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC). Exports to Vietnam rose from about 11,000t in the previous fiscal year to 772,300t, making the southeast Asian country India's second-largest export market in the fiscal year ended March 2026.

But Indian steel exports face fresh headwinds this year, particularly in Europe, where the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and impending safeguard quota revisions have made buyers more cautious. Some export opportunities have surfaced, but these are overshadowed by risks.

EU quota, Iran war limit exports

Indian flat steel volumes to Europe are expected to decline from July, as quotas will likely be halved and out-of-quota duties doubled to 50pc, market participants said. India quickly exhausted its January-March and April-June HRC quotas after a surge in shipments to Europe over December-January.

Importing Indian HRC has become much riskier because of lower quota availability and higher duties from the next quarter.

If India's HRC quota is breached again, the pro-rated duty is likely to rise from 8-9pc at present to 15-20pc from July, an international steel trader said. Combined with CBAM charges and other costs, this will make Indian material less attractive to buyers unless EU local prices rise sharply, the trader added.

The Argus daily Italian HRC index rose by 10pc from end-December to €694.25/t ($812/t) ex-works on 22 April. Indian HRC offers were last heard at $705–710/t cfr EU for May and June shipments.

The Iran war forced Indian mills to suspend offers to the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region and postpone shipments for earlier bookings. The strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed since the conflict began at the end of February, blocking India's access to markets such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

A sharp increase in ocean freight rates and vessel shortages resulting from the war have also led some major Indian mills to scale back exports and focus on the domestic market.

Opportunities tempered by uncertainty

There are early signs of emerging opportunities in an otherwise challenging export environment. Indian cold-rolled coil (CRC) exports could increase after the European Commission said it would not impose provisional duties on imports under investigation. Sourcing CRC locally is currently difficult in Europe, an EU-based trader said.

Other market sources said that European demand for Indian CRC may rise in the short term, but quota reductions will ultimately impede sales from July.

Market participants also expect a surge in demand from the Middle East due to post-war reconstruction activity. But with no clear resolution in sight to the conflict, it is difficult to assess when the GCC market will reopen for Indian exports.

Vietnam also offers an opportunity for Indian mills to offload surplus volumes, particularly from June, when plants resume full production after maintenance and domestic demand eases during the monsoon. Imported coil prices in Vietnam reached an over two-year high this week, making the market more attractive for Indian sellers than earlier in the year.

By Amruta Khandekar