Israel will suspend military operations in Lebanon for another three weeks beyond the existing ceasefire deadline of 26 April, President Donald Trump said on Thursday following talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys at the White House.
The ceasefire negotiated a week ago was due to expire at 8pm ET (20:00 GMT) on 26 April, so a three-week extension will push it until 17 May.
Lebanon-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah militants launched drone and missile attacks against Israel last month, opening a new front in the US-Israel war against Iran and drawing a heavy-handed response from Israel against civilian areas and infrastructure in Lebanon.
Israel and Hezbollah exchanged small scale attacks in recent days, despite the ceasefire. The ceasefire agreement allows Israel to "take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks". But Trump said on 17 April that he "prohibited" Israel from carrying out attacks in Lebanon.
The Lebanon ceasefire agreement on 16 April came in response to Tehran's demand for Israel to cease hostilities, as part of a broader US-Iran push for a negotiated end to the war. "It'll be a wonderful thing to get (a Lebanon-Israel peace agreement) worked out simultaneously with what we're doing in Iran", Trump said on Thursday.
But prospects for a US-Iran agreement look more remote now than they did a week ago. The strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to navigation, and the US naval blockade of Iranian trade continues despite a ceasefire that Trump said on 21 April will continue indefinitely. There is no date set for the next round of US-Iran talks.
Trump in recent days said that Iran's leadership is fractured over a possible deal with the US. He also downplayed Iran's ability to control the strait of Hormuz and declared that it was, in fact, the US that retained control over that waterway since "no ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy".
Trump also said in a social media post on Thursday that he was not "'anxious' to end the War (if you would even call it that!) with Iran, please be advised that I am possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position."
Iran's president Massoud Pezeshkian, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and other officials appeared to respond to Trump's claims of fractures in Tehran with similarly worded social media posts insisting that Iran's leadership is in fact united.
The US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman and across the Indian Ocean — in effect since 13 April — has resulted in the capture of three Iranian vessels and has forced 31 Iranian ships to return to ports in Iran, the Pentagon said on Thursday.
Iran has responded to the US actions by seizing two containerships owned by Swiss firm MSC that were transiting the strait of Hormuz. Iran's response does not amount to a ceasefire violation, the White House said on Wednesday.
Trump reiterated on Thursday that the US public should be prepared for a conflict with Iran of long duration, similar to the Vietnam war or the Second World War — which he said was justified by the need to eliminate Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program.
US oil executives are beginning to voice concerns over the inconsistent messaging from the White House about the possible duration and impacts from the confrontation with Iran, which they said is deterring an appropriate supply response from US oil producers.
"If the administration feels that we need to prolong the conflict, it needs to better articulate the long-term strategic goal," an oil executive said in an anonymous survey compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and released on Thursday.
"There is no way to predict the outcome of the war with Iran," another upstream executive said. "The effect it will have on domestic oil production depends on how long the strait remains closed, and that is how long Iran can control the movement through the strait."
