Euronext corn futures have already risen to reflect lower French corn output in 2026, but a drop in the crop's quality could continue to drive up physical prices in Europe if it causes uses for French corn to shift.
The November 2026 contract on Euronext corn futures reached a high of above €250/t this week as local grain merchants, co-operatives and feed manufacturers prepare for low physical grain supply in this year's crop.
The premium of Paris-listed November futures to US corn on the Chicago-listed December 2026 contract has risen to almost $100/t, a level approaching the record spreads seen in 2022 when heatwaves similarly affected France's corn crop.
Argus estimates French corn production for the 2026-27 marketing year (October-September) at just 6.9mn t, potentially one of the smallest crops since 1980. Heatwaves during pollination have significantly reduced yield potential in many regions, adding to a drop in planted areas at the start of the season as farmers found corn less profitable compared with oilseeds, particularly given higher fertilizer costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
Livestock producers juggle a shift from corn grains to silage
Poor corn crop conditions this year could amplify the impact of lower yields on supply, and prompt France's animal feed sector to absorb more domestic wheat, barley and oilseed meals as a result, leaving even less grain for exports to the wider EU market and beyond.
Farmers could use a notable share of French corn areas — 175,000 hectares, Argus estimates as part of its latest revision to projected corn output — in silage, rather than harvesting the crop as a grain. This year's weather may mean this corn silage has a significantly lower nutritional quality than usual. Disruption to pollination can lead to fewer kernels and therefore cause the silage to have a lower energy value than usual.
As a result, French animal feed manufacturers could turn to other grains and oilseed meals to make up for the expected energy deficit in forage and maintain herd performance.
The trend of using more corn for silage is particularly pronounced in major livestock-producing regions such as Brittany and Pays de la Loire. In these areas, where there is generally less irrigation than in southwest and east France, farmers have fewer tools to mitigate the effects of extreme heat. When grain yield potential falls, harvesting for silage can prove the more economically viable choice for farmers. By contrast, in regions with greater irrigation capacity, farmers can more easily contain the damage cause by unfavourably high temperatures, even if yields still take a hit.
Biogas sector joins race to secure supply
France's livestock sector could also face growing competition from the biogas sector in the context of overall low corn supply. Biogas plants regularly seek crop-based feedstocks as well as livestock manure as a carbon source to increase output. This can include corn silage as well as cover crops, straw and crop residues. The balance between manure, necessary for moisture and biological activity, and crop inputs, which increase methane production potential, is one of the main drivers of economic performance for these facilities.
