News
26/08/20
US high-balling Hormuz energy flows
US high-balling Hormuz energy flows
New York, 20 August (Argus) — US officials continue to claim a high number of
tankers are exiting the strait of Hormuz through US-assisted transits, despite
vessel tracking and satellite information pointing to much lower traffic through
the strait. "Right now, the strait is open. A lot of boats are coming through.
We are getting a lot of oil out," US President Trump said on 19 August at the
White House. But vessel information firm TankerTrackers.com said on 20 August
that only 5mn b/d is departing the US Navy blockade line regardless of where the
loading or transfer of crude is taking place, in response to claims by US
officials that 10mn b/d are traveling through the strait of Hormuz. The
US-imposed blockade on Iranian ports is being enforced from outside the strait
of Hormuz between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, so the
TankerTrackers.com figure likely includes loadings at the UAE and Oman's eastern
ports within the Gulf of Oman, beyond the confines of the strait itself. US
Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed last week that an average of 9mn b/d
exited the strait of Hormuz, a figure much higher than available information.
"We do have control of the strait, you would have seen media reports that large
amounts of energy are getting out, and you know I think that we can continue
doing that in the southern lane," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an
interview with CNBC on 20 August. Available vessel tracking and satellite data
does not corroborate the assertions made by US officials that many tankers are
going through the strait of Hormuz on the US' southern transit lane. Some tanker
traffic is occurring through the strait, undetected by conventional vessel
tracking systems since vessels are transiting with their automatic
identification systems off. But these transits are visible through satellite
imagery, on both the US-supported southern lane and the northern
Iranian-controlled lane, data from maritime security firm Windward shows. These
observable flows are at a fraction of pre-war levels, while many vessels
transiting through the southern lane have been subject to attacks by Iranian
forces. Tanker flows through the strait of Hormuz itself are projected by vessel
tracking firm Vortexa to stand at around 941,400 b/d for the period of 14-21
August, comprised mostly of Iraqi and Saudi shipments. Most of the energy that
is leaving the Mideast Gulf following the outbreak of the US-Iran war is doing
so through the UAE and Oman's eastern ports. Estimates from Vortexa place
exports via Fujairah port in the week between 14-21 August around 2.06mn b/d
while exports via Sohar and Muscat, Oman, totaled around 1.15mn b/d in the same
period. Vessel tracking data shows around 4mn b/d total departing from around
the Mideast Gulf, including flows through Hormuz, in the last week. The White
House did not respond to a request for comment from Argus to provide additional
details on the US' efforts to support tanker transits through the strait of
Hormuz. Hormuz tanker traffic on Iranian lanes up Vessel traffic through the
strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours totaled 16 vessels, mostly transiting
through the northern, Iranian-controlled transit lane, split between 10 inbound
transits and six outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward
shows. Tanker traffic totaled 12 vessels, split between seven inbound and five
outbound transits, most of which took place on the northern lane, Windward data
shows. The Liberia-flagged Sweden Prosperity and the Hong Kong-flagged Hestia
transited the strait inbound through the southern corridor, Windward data shows.
However, the Hestia has turned back following its successful inbound transit and
is currently idling off the eastern coast of the UAE, data from vessel tracking
service Vortexa shows. The Hestia is one of at least two China-affiliated very
large crude carriers to abandon its transits through the strait of Hormuz over
the last few days. The remaining five inbound transits took place on the
northern, Iranian controlled lane, according to Windward. For outbound transits,
a single transit took place on the US-supported southern lane, Windward tracked
the Ashley which transited dark. The Ashley is laden with 469,000 bl of fuel oil
it loaded at Dubai lightering area on 16 August and is currently idling off
Fujirah, according to Kpler data. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request
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