Rhine water levels have sunk past historic lows, which could cause a chain reaction affecting Germany's transport system, manufacturing sector and large parts of the economy, metals associations BDSV, VDM and BVSE have warned.
The water level at the key Kaub measuring point fell to 11cm as of 1pm today, surpassing previous historic lows set in 2018. Kaub acts as a reference point for commercial shipping along the waterway.
On certain sections of the river, barges are only allowed to carry a third of their usual cargoes, the associations said, while scrap market participants have said use of other parts of inland waterways is not possible for them as traffic has almost come to a standstill.
In 2024, around 120mn t of material was transported for the German steel industry with just under 50pc moved by rail, close to 32pc by inland waterways, and 19pc by truck. Around 38mn t of steel or steel-related materials are transported annually by waterway vessels.
"If, hypothetically, just half of that were shifted to road transport, with a payload of 25t per truck, more than 760,000 additional truckloads per year would be required — over 63,000 per month," the associations said in a joint statement.
Rail cannot compensate either, they added, describing the situation as "similar to a highway with closed lanes", as steel and recycling sectors also compete with other industries for the same scarce capacity.
Rising steel output is also increasing the pressure on logistics and input supply. Germany increased its crude steel output in June, with 18.6mn t produced in the first half of this year, an 8.9pc year-on-year rise, World Steel Association figures show.
A rise in water levels will not immediately clear the backlog in recyclers' yards and steelmakers' supply chains because returning vessel capacity would be competed for by other industries, the associations said.
The associations called for a co-ordinated approach across all modes of transport in the short term and stressed that Germany needs more resilient infrastructure in the long term. "Low water levels are not an isolated transportation problem. If raw materials do not reach factories or products do not reach their customers, production, construction, investments and economic value creation come under pressure. This challenge can only be solved across the entire supply chain and across all modes of transport," they said.
