Latest market news

France looks to barley to replace lost rapeseed areas

  • : Agriculture
  • 26/09/15

French farmers could devote greater areas to winter barley planting at the expense of rapeseed for the 2027 crop, but dry weather and a fall in barley prices against wheat could still cap the rise.

Argus expects EU rapeseed areas to fall by around 5pc on the year for the 2027 crop as dry soil conditions hamper fieldwork right up to the end of the crop's optimal planting window in mid-September, with France set for one of the sharpest declines. There is the potential for areas to fall even further given that dry weather is forecast to continue over the next two weeks, limiting the scope for the planting pace to recover before it becomes too late and farmers turn to other crops.

The space left vacant by rapeseed could benefit the growing of winter barley, particularly if rainfall returns ahead of the main barley planting window running from late September to early November. In current conditions, low soil moisture across large parts of France is likely to discourage attempts to start planting barley ahead of time, even as an early corn harvest this year — currently under way — frees up fields for winter grains planting earlier than usual.

If weather turns favourable, current projections point to European barley acreages for the 2026-27 (July-June) marketing year at close to a record high. Argus estimates EU winter barley areas at 5.42mn hectares for the 2027 crop, up from 5.30mn ha a year earlier and the highest in at least 15 years. In France alone, areas are projected at 1.4mn ha, the highest since 2016-17.

But price signals have become less supportive in recent weeks as planting decisions are finalised. Between mid-October 2025 and early March 2026, French feed barley delivered to Rouen from the 2025 harvest regularly traded at parity with wheat, or even at a premium, which at times exceeded €10/t. Support for prices continued for the 2026 crop, at least while it was still in the ground. Between early May and late June this year, feed barley delivered to Rouen traded at discounts of only €5-10/t to wheat, significantly narrower than the typical spread between the crops.

Support for barley prices relative to wheat has since eroded. Feed barley prices failed to fully track the recovery in Euronext wheat futures of the past two months, with this year's French feed barley crop last trading at around €18/t below the March futures contract, for delivery to Rouen in January-March. Whether barley prices regain ground against wheat in the coming weeks could prove decisive for farmers' winter planting decisions.

Against this backdrop, there is little incentive for farmers to begin marketing their 2027 barley crop ahead of time. Dry weather remains a key source of uncertainty, because if winter barley areas fail to match up to their near-record potential, this could support prices later in the season. Furthermore, weaker corn output in France this year means that the domestic livestock sector is at risk of running out of supply long before next year's corn harvest can begin, regardless of how much corn farmers plant next spring, potentially creating extra demand for the 2027 barley crop straight off the harvest in June-July. Wheat presents a different picture, with some producers already showing interest in forward sales and beginning to lock in prices for part of their 2027 wheat crop.


Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more