The world is not on track to meet the goal of tripling installed renewable capacity by 2030 set in 2023 at the UN Cop 28 climate summit, according to a report by renewable energy group Irena.
Tripling renewable capacity from 2022 to 11TW by 2030 would require adding 1.2TW/yr of capacity each year in 2026-30, up from actual additions of 693GW in 2025, the report found.
But if the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5pc observed in 2025 is maintained, the world will fall short of its end-of-decade target by 0.6TW. This is a smaller gap than Irena had predicted last year, when it put the gap at 0.9TW. The CAGR of renewables capacity has increased in recent years, to 15.5pc in 2025 from 15.1pc in 2024 and 14.7pc in 2023. Combined with a larger base this has meant exponential increases in capacity.
But reaching the target would require accelerating exponential increases, with the CAGR rising to 16.7pc.
Three quarters of the capacity added last year was solar photovoltaic (PV), while wind made up most of the remainder, Irena said. Solar buildout has been faster than wind in recent years thanks to fast price drops for components. The technology's scalability has meant distributed uptake is possible, unlike in wind, while in some places permitting procedures are easier for solar than for wind.
But the technology's typically lower load factor means the same amount of capacity translates to less energy produced than for other technologies.
And all-in costs for solar PV did not fall on the year in 2025, Irena found, despite a 6pc fall in installation costs, as higher financing costs made up for this. Financing costs are now one of the biggest barriers to increasing renewable capacity in developed economies, market participants have said. Financing costs remain "stubborn obstacles," especially in emerging markets and developing economies, Irena said.
The Turkish presidency of the Cop 31 summit, to be held in November in Turkey, has made a pledge to increase electricity's share of final energy demand to 35pc by 2035, up from around 20pc today. On 21 September the presidency release more details of the pledge, including "a global mechanism to track progress on electrification," and support for developing countries to access financing.
