Brazil's Lula, Bolsonaro diverge on fertilizer policy

: Fertilizers
26/10/23

Brazil's 2026 presidential contenders share the goal of reducing the country's dependence on fertilizer imports, but differ on how to achieve that.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and senator Flavio Bolsonaro are facing off in the second round of the presidential election on 25 October, in what is shaping up to be Brazil's closest presidential race since 1989.

Both candidates include reducing external dependence on fertilizers in their policy platforms, agreeing that Brazil's heavy reliance on imported fertilizers poses risks to food security and the agribusiness sector's competitiveness. But they have different views on how to reduce that reliance and on the respective roles of the federal government and the private sector.

Lula aims to boost domestic fertilizer production while maintaining state-controlled Petrobras as a key player in the market. His platform highlights the reopening of fertilizer plants in northeastern Sergipe and Bahia states and in southern Parana state, as well as the resumption of investments in central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state, in a bid to keep accelerating domestic production to reduce vulnerability to international crises.

Bolsonaro's platform does not mention Petrobras. He instead proposes to boost domestic fertilizer production based on natural gas. Although gas receives relatively limited attention in both candidates' plans, the objective broadly mirrors their fertilizer strategies. Lula's platform keeps Petrobras at the center of Brazil's energy policy, while Bolsonaro emphasizes market competition and private-sector investment.

Bolsonaro advocates "supporting national fertilizer production using mineral resources, such as potash and phosphate". Many of these projects will depend on environmental licensing to move forward. Bolsonaro's platform pledges to deliver "an agile, modern environmental licensing system with legal certainty", although it provides few details on how this would be implemented.

Bolsonaro's program advocates to reduce the federal government's size. The document — which does not specifically mention the fertilizer sector — signals support for a privatization program, arguing that state participation should be reassessed on a case-by-case basis.

His campaign's economic adviser, however, has pledged to not privatize Petrobras.

Lula's program also highlights bioinputs as part of its strategy to reduce external fertilizer dependence. The document states that the government should expand incentives for domestic production to lessen reliance on imported chemical fertilizers. The current administration also emphasizes strengthening Brazil's agricultural research agency Embrapa, without providing further details.

Fertilizer industry experts and market participants remain somewhat skeptical of the national fertilizer plan, which seeks to reduce Brazil's import dependence by 2050. But many see bioinputs playing a role in reducing dependence on imported nutrients. Sales in the biofertilizer segment increased by 77pc in 2025 to R883mn ($175.3mn), according to Brazil's association of industries of technologies for plant production Abisolo, driven by an increase in new product registrations in the ministry of agriculture and livestock and higher usage by farmers.

National fertilizer plan

Neither candidate references the national fertilizer plan specifically on their platforms.

Former president Jair Bolsonaro launched the plan's first version in May 2022, aiming to reduce the share of fertilizers Brazil sources from imports to around 40pc by 2050. Brazil currently imports 80-85pc of its fertilizer consumption.

Lula established Brazil's council of fertilizers and plant nutrition Confert in May 2023 to oversee revisions and implementation of the plan's second version, which expects national fertilizer production to supply around 45-50pc of Brazilian demand by 2050.

Lula in September signed into law the fertilizer industry development program Profert, which established guidelines for companies to join the program, introduced a mandatory domestic fertilizer blend and directs resources to credit lines for new projects.

Domestic production

Brazil consumed 49.1mn metric tonnes (t) of mineral fertilizers in 2025, while imports totaled 43.3mn t that year, according to national fertilizer association Anda. Imports have slowed this year from the previous year and total deliveries to farmers are expected to fall to around 41mn t, according to market participants.

The decline reflects higher fertilizer prices following the outbreak of conflict in the Mideast Gulf.

Domestic fertilizer production peaked in 2013, when output totaled 9.3mn t in a market that consumed 30.7mn t, according to Anda's historical series that dates back to 2013. Fertilizer consumption growth has gone hand in hand with the expansion of planted acreage in Brazil.

Domestic fertilizer production bottomed out in 2020 at 6.5mn t, while deliveries totaled 40.6mn t. The decline in national fertilizer production resulted from a combination of factors over recent years. Brazilian miner Vale was active in the fertilizer market and sold its fertilizer assets to US-based Mosaic in 2016, concluding the deal in 2018. Mosaic curbed output in 2019 in Brazil, announcing the halt at its mining complex at Araxa, the Catalao phosphate plant and its rock mine, as well as another phosphate rock mine in Tapira, due to measures taken by the company to meet the then new regulations of tailing dams in Brazil after the Brumadinho disaster.

Likewise, Petrobras decided to exit the fertilizer sector in 2016, with its nitrogen fertilizer plants subsequently leased to Brazilian chemicals company Unigel. Amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the increase in production costs, Unigel exited the fertilizer market, while Petrobras resumed domestic fertilizer production.

By Renata Cardarelli

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