Lula win keeps E35 prospects in focus

: Biofuels
26/10/26

Brazil's ethanol industry sees President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election on 25 October as a green light for further increases in gasoline blending mandates and for maintaining ethanol import tariffs.

Brazil has a temporary E32 mandate — requiring a 32pc blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline — that is due to expire in late January 2027. The mandate could be extended for another 180 days.

After that, the government could make the E32 mandate permanent or revert to E30.

Market participants and observers see Lula's government as more supportive of this decarbonization policy than runner-up Flavio Bolsonaro.

Flavio, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, said in August that he would revisit the E32 mandate if elected, comparing it with "skimpflation" a term for when the price of a good does not rise but its quality decreases due to inflation. He said there were other ways to support Brazil's ethanol sector and that his government would pursue those alternatives.

Industry groups said the remarks misinformed consumers and undermined policies aimed at encouraging ethanol use that have been built over the past 50 years by governments across the political spectrum, according to a statement signed by associations Unica, Unem, Feplana, Unida and Orplana.

Brazil's Fuel of the Future law sets a target for an E35 blending mandate, with no specific deadline and subject to feasibility testing.

Lula's government approved the start of E35 testing in September 2026.

Import tariffs

Observers also expect the 18pc ethanol import tariff — an item US president Donald Trump has repeatedly railed against — to remain in place under Lula's new term.

The 18pc import tariff on ethanol from all origins except Mercosur countries has been in place since 2023 as a way to protect domestic producers from an influx of US ethanol.

Ethanol has been at the center of Trump's claims of "unfair trade practices" by Brazil and was cited as one of the reasons for a USTR investigation that resulted in additional 25pc US tariffs on Brazilian goods in July.

Lula said the US tariffs were unfounded and hurt both Brazil and the US, while declining to back down on Brazil's 18pc tariff on imported ethanol.

By Maria Lígia Barros

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26/10/26

Conservatives win majority in British Columbia

Calgary, 26 October (Argus) — The Conservative Party of British Columbia (BC) will form a majority government in the Canadian province for the first time in nearly a century, with the promise of more energy development on the horizon. Lorne Doerkson of the Conservatives will be the next premier after leading his party to 63 of 93 seats in a general election on 24 October. The New Democratic Party (NDP) will be relegated to the official opposition with 28 seats while the BC Green party secured two seats, according to unofficial results from Elections BC. The Conservatives were last in power from 1928-1933. The win also ends a decade-long reign by the NDP. The change in government follows an ill-fated snap election gamble by the now-outgoing premier and NDP leader David Eby, who already held a narrow majority. The next scheduled election was not to happen until 2028, but Eby sought to capitalize on a Conservative party fraught with internal disorder and a new leader that was relatively unknown. Doerkson's Conservatives want to "supercharge" BC's economy, by doubling its natural gas production by 2032 and tripling it by 2035. LNG development and condensate production are also central to the plan. While LNG development unfolded under the NDP's leadership, Eby has been a vocal opponent of shipping Canadian crude from northern BC, which culminated in a deal with prime minister Mark Carney to keep a federal tanker ban intact . The Conservative Party of Canada on Monday said it is pushing to have the oil tanker moratorium removed through Bill C-264, which is heading for a second reading in the House of Commons in Ottawa, Ontario, on 28 October. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits

26/10/23

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26/10/23

45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits

St Louis, 23 October (Argus) — The 45Z tax credit system for US biofuel feedstocks could struggle to return value to US farmers — with complex systems and long value-chains leaving a wide gap between producers and end-users — an outcome that could hinder bringing the program to scale. Originally intended to promote the usage of low-carbon feedstocks for biofuel production, the re-worked 45Z tax credit has widely been viewed by US agricultural groups as a tool to "create opportunities for farmers" said David Kubik, Biofuels and Trade Policy Manager with the Illinois Soybean Board. But complexities within the system — including the verification processes or how the US Department of Agriculture rates climate-smart agricultural practices — have introduced hurdles that US farmers have yet to work out. Setting expectations The potential for the 45Z tax credit to bid value back to crop producers has limitations shaped by feedstock type, supply chains, and geography. Understanding the "incremental value" generated by carbon-intensity (CI) reducing agricultural practices is key, according to Matt Herman, chief officer of Demand and Advocacy with the Iowa Soybean Association. "That's what the farmer and the value chain are going to be negotiating over." The tax credit — which increases incrementally with the CI reduction of the feedstock — caps out at $1/USG of biofuel production. For producers of renewable diesel and biodiesel, $0.60/USG is guaranteed if soybean oil is the feedstock. That leaves a potential of up to $0.40/USG of tax credit to be bid into incentivizing agricultural practices for US soybean producers. A credit that will also pass through the hands of soybean crushers — with soybean oil accounting for less than 20pc of a crushed soybean — before it can be factored into a farmer's profitability. For corn producers the advantage seems to be greater as the entire $1/USG credit for ethanol is aligned with the CI reduction of the feedstock. Regardless of the cap, the value returned to farmers will be further shaped by the accounting and compliance costs borne by the biofuel producers — the recipients of the credit — as well as any other part of the supply chain involved in moving the crop from the field to the end user. For farmers located away from biofuel end users, each additional supply chain link adds another layer of cost "taking away some of that potential farmer value", according to Adam Kiel, executive vice president with the Iowa Soybean Association. Rewarding the risk Time also creates a barrier between the potential value of 45Z for biofuel producers and the farmers who produce the crops. It could take "years from the time a farmer makes that decision to the time the credit value is returned back to the fuel producer even, let alone the farmer", said Keil. And farmers who adopt CI reducing agricultural practices incur those costs up front "probably a year before they harvest that crop," said Kiel. "Somebody's got to carry that cost", according to Herman. "There's a lot of opportunity here, but I think that there's a lot of area to improve". "I look at it as a subsidy for farmers who are already doing it" said Kubik. Those who have already adopted practices consistent with the CI reduction incentive will be the early beneficiaries. To balance or to book A possible solution to the barriers in returning value back to farmers would be to modify the method used to account for the CI reduction. Under the current regulation the CI reduction is accounted for and reported by the biofuel producer using a "Mass Balance" approach. Under mass balance accounting, documentation of the feedstock's production method follows it up the supply chain to the biofuel producer who uses it to prove the CI reduction of the feedstock and collect the tax credit. 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And the book and claim approach could open the door to more farmers claiming the credit without modifying farming practices, particularly from producers who live in areas where CI reduction eligible practices, such as no-till, are a necessary part of agriculture production. But with time farm groups remain adamant that the 45Z system will benefit US producers. "The key for corn growers is to see a portion of 45Z make its way back to the farm, said Arians. "The ultimate goal of 45Z is to is to create opportunities for farmers", Kubik said. "And I do believe that farmers will be able to capitalize on those opportunities at the right time. It's just, kind of, working through the quirks." By Ryan Koory and Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crops could help fill biofuel feedstock gap

26/10/23

News

26/10/23

Crops could help fill biofuel feedstock gap

London, 23 October (Argus) — Crop-based feedstocks will remain necessary to meet growing renewable fuel demand in the EU in the coming years, industry participants said at the Argus Biofuels Conference this week. This is because supplies of advanced feedstocks are unlikely to keep pace with expanding biofuel mandates. Global supply of waste-based oil could fall short of demand for advanced feedstocks by as much as 8mn t by 2030, according to Argus Analytics estimations, with tightness expected to emerge from 2027 and intensify from 2028. Waste based and advanced feedstocks remain central to European decarbonisation policies — with Annex IX Part A feedstocks' use uncapped under the latest EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) — but potential for supply growth is limited, and even increased investment in waste oil collection and pretreatment technologies is unlikely to close the gap, delegates heard. At the same time, renewable fuels of non-biological origin are commercially challenging and far from being deployed at scale, while greater adoption of electric vehicles could reduce pressure on biofuel feedstock demand, but progress remains constrained by infrastructure development and regulatory challenges. Meanwhile, first-generation crop-based feedstocks are among the scalable and cost-competitive options for meeting renewables targets in the coming years, while supplies of waste and advanced Annex IX Part A feedstocks remain constrained, panellists said. Current EU legislative framework diverges between member states, with RED III capping a country's crop-based fuel use at the lower threshold of one percentage point above its 2020 share or a 7pc ceiling. Looking ahead, crop-based fuels could gain some ground post-2030, as the European Commission's RED IV leaked impact assessment proposes a shift to a maximum 7pc cap across the board — a move that could increase food and feed crop-based biofuel quantities by 30pc, according to commission estimates. Increased uptake of higher greenhouse gas-saving (GHG) crops could also help to ease the feedstock gap out to 2030, particularly for member states that mandate biofuel use on a GHG reduction, rather than energetic basis. Intermediate crops also have significant production potential — cover crops planted on just 5pc of European arable land could theoretically produce nearly enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet EU aviation biofuel targets by 2030, BP's vice-president of regulatory affairs bioenergy Eirik Pitkethly told delegates this week. By Nataliia Haisonok Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Q&A: JetBio to produce renewable diesel from ethanol

26/10/22

News

26/10/22

Q&A: JetBio to produce renewable diesel from ethanol

Sao Paulo, 22 October (Argus) — Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer JetBio has redesigned its first planned plant, to be built in Paulinia, in Brazil's southeastern Sao Paulo state, to include renewable diesel production from ethanol. The company's chief executive, William Moore, said the project will be the first facility in the world capable of producing renewable diesel from ethanol at a commercial scale. The project will use Honeywell UOP's technology to convert ethanol into those two renewable fuels. The new model will allow the plant to switch from maximum sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to maximum renewable diesel production, both with no co-products, and the switch can be made within a few hours, according to Moore. At maximum SAF output, the facility would produce close to 770,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr from approximately 1.4mn t of ethanol (31,068 b/d). In maximum renewable diesel mode, output would be closer to 700,000 t/yr. JetBio plans to invest $2bn in the project, with a final investment decision expected in the first quarter of 2027 and start-up potentially from mid-2030. Edited highlights from the interview follow. Is JetBio planning to direct renewable diesel output primarily to Brazil's domestic market, or is it also eyeing international markets? We are applying to create a ZPE (Brazilian free-trade zone) and the requirement is 80pc of our product has to be exported. We are going to be living within those constraints, but even in that 20pc for both SAF and renewable diesel, we think there is strong demand in Brazil for both. The beauty of renewable diesel, while it may be a little bit more expensive, you can still get to greater than 66pc GHG reduction all the way down to 95pc-100pc, depending on what ethanol we are sourcing and if we are using biomethane instead of natural gas for heat and hydrogen. It offers the decarbonization benefits to the local market in Brazil without those companies having to make big capital investments to change over their fleets to burn ethanol or change over their bunkering infrastructure or their fueling infrastructure in order to utilize it. So far, we have seen strong interest from maritime — that would be bunkering in Santos and Paranagua —, from mining, heavy on-road transportation and agriculture. Brazil imports fossil diesel, and there is a strong argument that why would Brazil want to import all that fossil diesel when they could use locally produced renewable diesel that has a much lower carbon footprint? Now it all comes down to price, but our goal is to be the lowest-cost producer of SAF and now renewable diesel in the world at the lowest carbon intensity that has access to Brazilian markets and export markets. When we are in service, we think that Brazilian ethanol will be the most competitive green molecule in the world. And we're just converting it into two other products that can be utilized by hard-to-abate industries. Have ethanol producers shown interest in this part of the project? One thing that we are talking to ethanol producers about is would they be interested in a tolling model where they would supply the ethanol to our plant in Paulina, and for an upgrading fee we would deliver back to them renewable diesel or sustainable maritime fuel that they could sell directly to consumers that they have already established a relationship with. It has just been transformed into a much more energy-dense and pure drop-in fuel that does not require any blending and does not have storage limitations. It is a perfect replacement for the fossil diesel that they are already consuming. Is this technology adaptation driven by a change in the outlook for the SAF market? Are you seeing any bottlenecks in that market? Our view has not changed on the SAF market. We are just excited that we can access the renewable diesel market as well. We see the world being structurally short of SAF, especially non-HEFA SAF, in 2030 and beyond. I think what you have to remember here is this is the largest biorefinery of its kind that is going to be built anytime soon. From an addressable market standpoint, this just gives us an additional optionality that we can provide. By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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French biodiesel imports decline as diesel demand falls

26/10/22

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26/10/22

French biodiesel imports decline as diesel demand falls

Barcelona, 22 October (Argus) — French biodiesel imports fell on the year for a third consecutive month in August, according to customs data. Biodiesel demand lacks support as diesel consumption continues to fall. France imported a little under 195,000t in August, up from 150,000t in July but 17.5pc less than a year earlier. Imports fell by 6.4pc on the year in January-August to 1.34mn t. Receipts had been running at record levels until May, but fell in June-August. French biodiesel imports have lacked support from weakening diesel demand, reduced by high pump prices after the start of the US-Iran war. French petroleum federation Ufip said diesel demand in August was 1.92mn t, lower by 9.2pc on the year and the lowest for any month since Covid-19 pandemic movement restrictions cut consumption to 1.2mn t and 1.7mn t in April and May 2020. Aside from the pandemic, August consumption was the lowest for any month in 14 years. Belgium was by far the largest biodiesel supplier to France in January-August, accounting for 76pc of its imports at 1.02mn t, up from 870,000t a year earlier, way ahead of Spain, which shipped 160,000t, up from 140,000t in January-August 2025. Belgian cargoes have continued to load from Ghent and Antwerp at a steady pace in September-October, according to port data and Kpler figures. French domestic producer Groupe Avril has a 100,000 t/yr plant at Ertvelde near Ghent and agribusiness firm Cargill operates its 400,000 t/yr Bioro biodiesel plant at Ghent. Some cargoes from Belgium may also be re-exports. France's biodiesel imports have been supported by two years of unplanned downtime at Avril's 200,000 t/yr plant at the Mediterranean port of Sete. Workers at the company said they still have no date for a restart, although the firm continues to crush domestic rapeseed and imported canola at the site. It has also recently applied to local authorities to expand the shipping berth at Sete. French biodiesel exports were 295,000t in January-August, including biodiesel in the B70 blend, a four-year high for the period and up by 29.5pc year on year. By Adam Porter French biodiesel imports 000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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