December Canadian crude prices in the US are averaging below the multi-year lows reached for the prior trade month as they continue to be pressured by ample heavy crude supply.
Canadian crude values have been pressured by rising volumes of Venezuelan crude, which has increased competition among heavy sour crude sellers at the US Gulf coast as more refiners look to the Latin American crude. US independent refiner Valero ran record-high volumes of Venezuelan crude at its refineries in the third quarter, the company said on 22 October.
Roughly 29.30mn bl, or over 480,310 b/d, of Venezuelan crude was delivered to the US Gulf coast in from September to October, compared to roughly 128,200 b/d for the same months in 2025, according to Vortexa data.
The rise in Venezuelan crude imports is weighing on Canadian crude differentials at a time when Canadian crude production is rising with limited outlets. Argus Consulting forecasts Canadian crude and condensate production will average a record 5.15mn b/d in the fourth quarter this year as multiple oil sands growth projects are coming online or ramping up. Argus' price reporting teams operate independently of Argus Consulting.
Argus' Western Canadian Select (WCS) Houston assessment is averaging a roughly $22.80/bl discount to CMA Nymex WTI for December trade so far, which puts it on track toward its widest trade month discount on record.
The November Argus trade month average for lower-TAN heavy crude in Houston already averaged its deepest discount since December 2022. The month-to-date average for heavy Canadian crude at the Texas Gulf coast includes a $23.50/bl volume-weighted discount to CMA Nymex on Tuesday, roughly $20/bl weaker than the same day a year prior.
Deeper discounts have prompted US independent refiner Marathon Petroleum to expect to use record-high volumes of Canadian heavy sour crude in the fourth quarter, the company said on 3 November.
Additionally, Canadian crude discounts to the CMA Nymex WTI could be wider to somewhat offset the high outright prompt values and market backwardation, with light supplies tight at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub. During the November delivery month, the calendar month average of prompt Nymex futures settlements will be roughly two-thirds December and one-third January in the calendar month average.
