US data center developers are seeking about 280GW of power over the next five years, but the grid can only provide about 186GW, leaving a shortfall that is likely to push more projects toward building onsite generation, Jack Weixel, a senior director at consultancy East Daley Analytics, said Wednesday.
The mismatch is particularly acute in the region served by PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest grid operator, where 70GW of announced data center demand compares with just 19GW of planned new generation, Weixel said while speaking at the LDC NatGas to Power Forum in Austin, Texas. Even those figures may understate the challenge because a lot of that capacity comes from solar and battery projects, which do not provide the around-the-clock supply required by artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
That gap between projected power demand and available grid supply is increasing interest in "behind-the-meter" generation that allows developers to bypass interconnection queues and other grid constraints, he said.
The recent victory of candidates who campaigned to limit development in several of the states with the fastest-growing demand could make off-grid solutions even more attractive to developers, he said. While states may place more guardrails on projects seeking grid connections, those restrictions may not necessarily apply to developments that build their own power plants.
Such a scenario could still provide a boon to natural gas suppliers even if some proposed data center projects fall to the wayside because behind-the-meter projects consume more gas than grid-connected facilities, said David Braziel, vice president of North American energy at consultancy Novi Labs.
A gigawatt of dedicated generation can burn roughly twice as much gas as a gigawatt served through ERCOT's grid, he said.
Despite uncertainty over which projects get built and how they are powered, both analysts still expect data centers to drive substantial growth in US gas consumption.
Weixel estimated data centers will add about 4.1 Bcf/d of gas demand by 2031, while Braziel projected roughly 4.5 Bcf/d of growth between 2026 and 2031.
