Organic Agriculture Market Outlook

USDA lifts corn production estimate: Wasde

USDA lifts corn production estimate: Wasde

Houston, 12 January (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its US corn yield and harvested acreage estimates for the 2025-26 marketing year, boosting estimated production by 1.6pc. According to the January update of the USDA's flagship World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ( Wasde ) report, US corn production is now pegged at 432mn metric tonnes (t), a 6.83mn t gain from the month prior. The production boost comes from a 1.3mn acre increase to harvested acreage — despite planted acres only rising by 100,000 acres — and a nearly 3pc increase to yields. Market participants had pegged the USDA's previous yield estimates as optimistic and had expected the January Wasde to feature a downward revision to corn production, not an upward one. The USDA also lifted 2025-26 beginning stocks by 483,000t on account of lower use figures for 2024-25, pushing total supply up by 7.32mn t from December's estimates. Most of the added supply — 5.03mn t — was added to ending stocks, a 9.8pc increase from the December Wasde . The USDA also increased domestic use by 2.29mn t, while leaving export estimates unchanged at 81.3mn t for the year. The stock-to-use ratio rose by 1.41 percentage points to 13.6pc. Historically, higher stock-to-use ratios correlate with lower commodity prices. Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were quick to fall in the aftermath of the Wasderelease, with the March-delivered corn contract closing the day down 5.38pc. Soybean exports slashed US soybean exports were revised down by 1.63mn t to 42.9mn t, a 3.7pc decline from December and the projected lowest level since the US' 2012 drought-stricken crop. With the decrease in exports, ending stocks forecast rose by 1.63mn t to 9.53mn t. Total supply estimates for 2025-26 also inched up by 463,000t from the December Wasde, attributable to a 100,000 acre boost in harvested area and an uptick in beginning stocks. The added supply went toward a 408,000t increase in crushing and 54,000t rise in residual use. Market reactions to the change in the soybean supply book were not as pronounced as corn, but the mix of higher production and fewer exports did provide downward pressure to the market. At the close of trade Monday, the March-delivered soybean contract on the CBOT was down by 1.13pc for the day. Few changes to US wheat The USDA made few adjustments to the wheat balance sheet for 2025-26, leaving production estimates and export forecasts unchanged. The ending stocks forecast rose by 680,000t to 25.2mn t on account of a 572,000t decrease to total domestic use and a minor boost to beginning stocks for the year. Larger beginning stocks came out of a small cut to 2024-25 use volumes. By Joseph Crosby January 2026 USDA Projections mn t 2025/26 Chg from Dec 2024/25 Chg from Dec U.S. corn supply and use Acres planted 98.80 0.10 90.90 0.00 Acres harvested 91.30 1.30 83.00 0.00 Yield t per acre 4.74 0.01 4.56 0.00 Supply -Beginning stocks 39.40 0.48 44.78 0.00 -Production 432.35 6.83 378.27 0.00 -Imports 0.64 0.00 0.56 0.00 Total supply 472.39 7.32 423.62 0.00 Use -Feed and residual 157.49 2.54 138.54 -0.30 -Food, seed and industrial 177.05 -0.25 173.06 -0.20 --Ethanol and by-products 142.25 0.00 138.08 0.00 --Other use 34.80 -0.25 34.98 -0.20 -Total domestic use 334.53 2.29 311.60 -0.51 -Exports 81.28 0.00 72.60 0.00 Total use 415.82 2.29 384.22 -0.48 -Ending stocks 56.57 5.03 39.40 0.48 -Stocks-to-use pc 13.60 1.14 10.25 0.14 U.S. wheat supply and use Acres planted 45.30 0.00 46.30 0.00 Acres harvested 37.20 0.00 38.60 0.00 Yield t per acre 1.45 0.00 1.40 0.00 Supply -Beginning stocks 23.27 0.11 18.94 0.00 -Production 54.02 0.00 53.86 0.00 -Imports 3.27 0.00 4.06 0.00 Total supply 80.53 0.11 76.86 0.00 Use --Food 26.45 0.00 26.37 0.00 --Seed 1.66 -0.03 1.66 0.00 --Feed and residual 2.72 -0.54 3.08 -0.11 -Total domestic use 30.84 -0.57 31.11 -0.14 -Exports 24.49 0.00 22.48 0.00 Total use 55.33 -0.57 53.59 -0.14 -Ending stocks 25.20 0.68 23.27 0.11 -Stocks-to-use pc 45.55 1.68 43.42 0.31 U.S. soybeans supply and use Acres planted 81.20 0.10 87.30 0.00 Acres harvested 80.40 0.10 86.20 0.00 Yield t per acre 1.44 0.00 1.38 0.00 Supply -Beginning stocks 8.85 0.24 9.31 0.00 -Production 115.99 0.24 119.04 0.00 -Imports 0.54 0.00 0.79 0.00 Total Supply 125.38 0.46 129.17 0.00 Use -Crushings 69.94 0.41 66.54 0.00 -Seed 1.99 0.00 1.91 0.00 -Residual 1.06 0.05 0.63 -0.24 -Exports 42.86 -1.63 51.22 0.00 Total use 115.86 -1.17 120.32 -0.22 -Ending stocks 9.53 1.63 8.85 0.24 -Stocks-to-use pc 8.22 1.48 7.35 0.22 — USDA, Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.