Organic Agriculture Market Outlook

26/03/02

US-Iran conflict slows agricultural flows into Gulf

London, 2 March (Argus) — Dry bulk carriers with agricultural goods have held off transiting the strait of Hormuz since the escalation of US-Iran conflict over the weekend, with some shippers exploring the option to discharge ahead of the transit. The 82,188dwt Locarno , loaded with Argentinian barley, was scheduled to arrive at Bandar Imam Khomeini on 4 March, but has slowed significantly and held offshore just before reaching the strait on 1 March, according to shiptracking data from Kpler. Similarly, the 77,834dwt New Horizon with a corn cargo from Ukraine has also stopped moving since 25 February. Flows into other countries in the Mideast Gulf have also slowed. The 77,079dwt Kypros Sky , having loaded a wheat cargo from Port Lincoln in Australia, diverted on the afternoon of 1 March offshore south India, Kpler data show. The vessel was scheduled to arrive at Umm Qasr port in Iraq on 8 March. Some shippers are considering options to unload their cargoes in Oman and seek other land routes in the region to avoid the transit via the strait of Hormuz, according to market participants. But it remains uncertain how viable the option is for deliveries to countries like Kuwait or Iraq. Immediate disruption to short-term deliveries may be capped for Saudi Arabia, at least based on its recent wheat tenders. State importer GFSA is not scheduled to receive wheat deliveries to Dammam port in the Gulf until the second half of April , according to its recent tenders. Its wheat cargoes via tenders would arrive in Jeddah and Yanbu in the Red Sea in March. Smaller importers in the region, on the other hand, are poised to see a total halt of agricultural imports in the short term. Kuwait has maintained its import pace for wheat, corn and barley so far this marketing year, compared with a year earlier, with only a slight drop in wheat receipts. The country has only imported 200,789t of wheat in July 2025–January 2026, down from 269,926t a year earlier, according to customs data. Some cargoes destined for the Mideast Gulf have also continued their journeys when they remain far from the strait. The 81,838 dwt Astrea , loaded with a wheat cargo from Port Giles in Australia, is still midway through the Indian Ocean and is scheduled to arrive at Umm Qasr port on 10 March. The 60,200dwt Genius Sw , carrying Argentinian corn, also continued its transit around the Cape of Good Hope. The vessel is still scheduled to arrive at Fujairah on 20 March, according to its AIS signal update today. By Xiaoyi Deng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Refiners warn EPA against late fuel waivers: Update

Refiners warn EPA against late fuel waivers: Update

Updates with comments from EPA New York, 26 February (Argus) — A group of US oil refiners that warned against a costly shift to a boutique fuel blend in the midcontinent want President Donald Trump's administration to let the states transition as planned this summer to avoid market turmoil. The Midwestern bloc was supposed to move last year to the lower-volatility summertime fuel, which would allow retailers to keep selling both typical 10pc ethanol gasoline (E10) and blends with up to 15pc ethanol (E15). But the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) punted the shift just days before summer driving season, frustrating fuel makers and distributors that had already invested millions to move to the boutique blend. "Fuel suppliers should not be put in the same situation again this year", the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) told EPA on Wednesday, according to a letter shared with Argus . The risk of changing rules remains. While seven states are still set to transition, Ohio backed out last month. Midwestern governors that previously saw the fuel shift as a way to help out corn farmers and pressure oil refiners to lobby for simpler federal E15 rules are now staring down the possibility of higher pump prices in an election year. Any other states that want to cancel the fuel change should have to make a request to do so immediately, according to the refiner group, and at the very least before pipelines start requiring the special blend by 1 April. EPA has not given states any deadline to request changes to their summer fuel market rules. EPA justified emergency waivers last summer aborting the midcontinent fuel change and allowing E15 gasoline across the country by warning of "extreme and unusual fuel supply circumstances caused by global conflicts". But AFPM warned EPA that such a move this year would be on shakier legal footing, pointing to data showing ample gasoline stocks across the US. The refiners' advocacy comes as a council of Republicans in the US House of Representatives has missed multiple deadlines for reaching agreement on biofuel policy reforms. Earlier drafts circulated by the task force floated allowing year-round E15 sales nationwide and stopping the Midwestern states' transition. The Clean Air Act exempts E10 from summertime smog rules that would otherwise prevent its sale but does not extend the same treatment to E15, despite a similar volatility profile. The midcontinent states as a workaround won EPA approval to opt out of the special treatment for E10, effectively putting E10 and E15 on equal footing by requiring lower-volatility blendstocks for both. The consequence is more complicated logistics for refiners, which may have to cut production of butane, which raises volatility, or invest in infrastructure to store and transport excess supplies. The states approved to move to the lower-volatility gasoline this summer are Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Kansas has signaled it could join them in the future, although EPA said it was already too late for any new states to join the Midwestern bloc this summer. "The Trump EPA will continue to work with states to reduce unnecessary costs and uncertainty and ensure that gas prices — which are down thanks to President Trump — remain affordable for all Americans through the summer", EPA said. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US refiners warn EPA against late fuel waivers

US refiners warn EPA against late fuel waivers

New York, 26 February (Argus) — A group of US oil refiners that warned against a costly shift to a boutique fuel blend in the midcontinent want President Donald Trump's administration to let the states transition as planned this summer to avoid market turmoil. The Midwestern bloc was supposed to move last year to the lower-volatility summertime fuel, which would allow retailers to keep selling both typical 10pc ethanol gasoline (E10) and blends with up to 15pc ethanol (E15). But the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) punted the shift just days before summer driving season, frustrating fuel makers and distributors that had already invested millions to move to the boutique blend. "Fuel suppliers should not be put in the same situation again this year", the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) told EPA on Wednesday, according to a letter shared with Argus . The risk of changing rules remains. While seven states are still set to transition, Ohio backed out last month. Midwestern governors that previously saw the fuel shift as a way to help out corn farmers and pressure oil refiners to lobby for simpler federal E15 rules are now staring down the possibility of higher pump prices in an election year. Any other states that want to cancel the fuel change should have to make a request to do so immediately, according to the refiner group, and at the very least before pipelines start requiring the special blend by 1 April. EPA justified emergency waivers last summer aborting the midcontinent fuel change and allowing E15 gasoline across the country by warning of "extreme and unusual fuel supply circumstances caused by global conflicts". But AFPM warned EPA that such a move this year would be on shakier legal footing, pointing to data showing ample gasoline stocks across the US. The refiners' advocacy comes as a council of Republicans in the US House of Representatives has missed multiple deadlines for reaching agreement on biofuel policy reforms. Earlier drafts circulated by the task force floated allowing year-round E15 sales nationwide and stopping the Midwestern states' transition. The Clean Air Act exempts E10 from summertime smog rules that would otherwise prevent its sale but does not extend the same treatment to E15, despite a similar volatility profile. The midcontinent states as a workaround won EPA approval to opt out of the special treatment for E10, effectively putting E10 and E15 on equal footing by requiring lower-volatility blendstocks for both. The consequence is more complicated logistics for refiners, which may have to cut production of butane, which raises volatility, or invest in infrastructure to store and transport excess supplies. The states approved to move to the lower-volatility gasoline this summer are Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Kansas has signaled it could join them in the future. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina's economy swings to growth in 2025

Argentina's economy swings to growth in 2025

Montevideo, 24 February (Argus) — Argentina's economic activity expanded by 4.4pc in 2025, based on preliminary government data. The annual growth was below the government forecast of 5pc and the IMF's more modest 4.5pc growth, but much stronger than the 1.7pc contraction the previous year. The economy also contracted in 2023. December was the strongest month for growth in the fourth quarter of the year, expanding by an annual 3.5pc in December from the prior month, when the economy contracted by a revised annual 0.1pc, according to the statistics institute, Indec. It was the second best monthly performance since June and reversed a two-month slide. The strongest monthly expansion in 2025 was 7.7pc registered in April. The strongest performance for December was in agriculture, up 32.2pc compared from a year earlier. Output in fisheries rose by 18.3pc, financial intermediation rose by an annual 14.1pc and mining climbed by 9.1pc in December from a year earlier. Weighing on growth, manufacturing fell by an annual 3.9pc, hospitality by 1.5pc and retail by 1.3pc. President Javier Milei's government forecasts 5pc growth for 2026, while the IMF projects 4pc growth. Argentina is the IMF's largest creditor nation, with $41.8bn in credits from the IMF out of the $119.5bn owed the institution. The government is betting on a boost from labor reform legislation, which cleared most congressional hurdles in February, but still requires one more vote by the Senate, and additional bills that will make it easier to approve extractive projects. While still grappling with high inflation, the government has a bit more breathing room as the Argentinian peso has appreciated in trading against the US dollar so far this year, following the same pattern of other big economies in the region. The Argentinian peso appreciated 5.2pc between the start of the year and 23 February, second only to Brazil's real in the region. This compares to a 28.9pc depreciation for the peso in 2025. Inflation was running at an annual 32.4pc in January, quickening from 31.5pc in December. The government forecasts inflation to end the year at 10.1pc for 2026 in its annual budget, while the IMF estimates it at 16.4pc and international banks even higher, with JPMorgan forecasting 26pc and BBVA 22pc inflation this year. -By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New US 10pc tariff goes into effect