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Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Sao Paulo, 25 October (Argus) — Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will serve as Brazil's president for another four-year term, after beating senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. With nearly 100pc of votes counted, Lula led Bolsonaro with over 51.77pc of votes. Lula becomes the first in Brazil's history to win a presidential election after trailing in the first round of voting. He received 45.16pc of votes on 4 October, trailing Bolsonaro's 47pc. This will be Lula's fourth stint as Brazil's president. He first served two terms in 2003-2011. Lula's campaign focused on social media following his first-round defeat. Street demonstrations, especially in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro — Brazil's most populous cities — may have also given him a boost. The final televised debate, held on 23 October, may have also helped him swing votes. Fact-checking agencies showed him saying more truthful statements than Bolsonaro, which may have weakened his adversary's campaign. The second round of voting saw fewer absentee voters as well. Around 21pc of voters abstained in the first round, versus around 19pc in the second round. Around 3mn people additional people showed up to vote compared with the first round, and Lula obtained 10mn votes more than in the first round. Voting delays Voting booths stayed open two hours later than usual after both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties requested an extension. Lula's party claimed that problems in public transport denied voters the chance to vote. The federal police arrested Pablo Souza, the mobility secretary of Salvador — the capital of Bahia state, historically a left-leaning state — for reducing the amount of buses available on Sunday. Bolsonaro's party requested the extension in voting hours because of rains in Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul states. Flavio Bolsonaro's brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro — a former congressman who has been in the US since March 2025 and was convicted by the supreme court of coercion with the US to interfere in his father's trial — said before the elections that the candidate Bolsonaro would also head to the US if defeated in the elections. It is still unclear whether Flavio Bolsonaro will remain in Brazil or not. The candidate had yet to concede defeat as of 8:30pm ET. Backing Petrobras During his 2023-2026 term, Lula put state-controlled Petrobras at the center of his energy policy, seeking to broaden the firm's scope. He ended the company's import price parity principle — in a bid to control fuel prices — and his predecessor's policy of selling assets. He returned Petrobras to markets such as fertilizer production . He also spoke in favor of increasing oil and gas production, while also seeking to put it in the center of Brazil's energy transition. Deforestation also fell during his term , after Lula reversed policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro — Flavio's father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election. Bolsonaro would have likely sought to win amnesty for his father, but that is unlikely to take place now that Lula will remain as president. Lula will also be responsible for picking four or five supreme court judges in the next four years. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Some of Lula's main campaign promises dealt with the economy, including maintaining the current fiscal framework while preserving room for public investment, expanding infrastructure spending, advancing the government's industrial policy and mobilizing investment for transitions to cleaner energy. Adversaries heavily criticized his fiscal framework, as Brazil's debt — including the federal, state and municipal governments — reached R11.1 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in August, up from R7.2 trillion at the end of 2022. Lula also promises to continue increasing the minimum wage, expand credit access for small- and medium-sized businesses, strengthen protections for app-based gig workers and pursue a more progressive tax system in which higher-income individuals contribute a larger share of taxes. But the heavily right-wing congress will probably be a hurdle for Lula to enact many of those promises. Lula's win puts Brazil as one of the sole countries in Latin America with a left-wing federal government, after Argentina, Peru, Chile, Colombia and others have elected right-wing presidents recently. Lula's relationship with the US and President Donald Trump were rocky at times , especially because of the tariffs imposed by the US president. Lula has been especially stern with the US' interest in Brazil's critical minerals. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits
45Z complexity risk diluting US farmer benefits
St Louis, 23 October (Argus) — The 45Z tax credit system for US biofuel feedstocks could struggle to return value to US farmers — with complex systems and long value-chains leaving a wide gap between producers and end-users — an outcome that could hinder bringing the program to scale. Originally intended to promote the usage of low-carbon feedstocks for biofuel production, the re-worked 45Z tax credit has widely been viewed by US agricultural groups as a tool to "create opportunities for farmers" said David Kubik, Biofuels and Trade Policy Manager with the Illinois Soybean Board. But complexities within the system — including the verification processes or how the US Department of Agriculture rates climate-smart agricultural practices — have introduced hurdles that US farmers have yet to work out. Setting expectations The potential for the 45Z tax credit to bid value back to crop producers has limitations shaped by feedstock type, supply chains, and geography. Understanding the "incremental value" generated by carbon-intensity (CI) reducing agricultural practices is key, according to Matt Herman, chief officer of Demand and Advocacy with the Iowa Soybean Association. "That's what the farmer and the value chain are going to be negotiating over." The tax credit — which increases incrementally with the CI reduction of the feedstock — caps out at $1/USG of biofuel production. For producers of renewable diesel and biodiesel, $0.60/USG is guaranteed if soybean oil is the feedstock. That leaves a potential of up to $0.40/USG of tax credit to be bid into incentivizing agricultural practices for US soybean producers. A credit that will also pass through the hands of soybean crushers — with soybean oil accounting for less than 20pc of a crushed soybean — before it can be factored into a farmer's profitability. For corn producers the advantage seems to be greater as the entire $1/USG credit for ethanol is aligned with the CI reduction of the feedstock. Regardless of the cap, the value returned to farmers will be further shaped by the accounting and compliance costs borne by the biofuel producers — the recipients of the credit — as well as any other part of the supply chain involved in moving the crop from the field to the end user. For farmers located away from biofuel end users, each additional supply chain link adds another layer of cost "taking away some of that potential farmer value", according to Adam Kiel, executive vice president with the Iowa Soybean Association. Rewarding the risk Time also creates a barrier between the potential value of 45Z for biofuel producers and the farmers who produce the crops. It could take "years from the time a farmer makes that decision to the time the credit value is returned back to the fuel producer even, let alone the farmer", said Keil. And farmers who adopt CI reducing agricultural practices incur those costs up front "probably a year before they harvest that crop," said Kiel. "Somebody's got to carry that cost", according to Herman. "There's a lot of opportunity here, but I think that there's a lot of area to improve". "I look at it as a subsidy for farmers who are already doing it" said Kubik. Those who have already adopted practices consistent with the CI reduction incentive will be the early beneficiaries. To balance or to book A possible solution to the barriers in returning value back to farmers would be to modify the method used to account for the CI reduction. Under the current regulation the CI reduction is accounted for and reported by the biofuel producer using a "Mass Balance" approach. Under mass balance accounting, documentation of the feedstock's production method follows it up the supply chain to the biofuel producer who uses it to prove the CI reduction of the feedstock and collect the tax credit. The alternative "Book and Claim" approach has the potential to simplify this. The proof of CI reduction would become decoupled from the feedstock as it enters the supply chain, and become a distinct product that biofuel producers can purchase to claim the tax credit. "Book and Claim is the preferred approach as it would allow more farmers to participate", said Sean Arians, Vice President with the National Corn Grows Association. But to adopt it would require multiple US agencies to agree that book and claim is an eligible accounting method, according to Arians. And additional safeguards and monitoring would have to be developed to ensure that the same bushel of feedstock is not sold multiple times to generate additional credits. And the book and claim approach could open the door to more farmers claiming the credit without modifying farming practices, particularly from producers who live in areas where CI reduction eligible practices, such as no-till, are a necessary part of agriculture production. But with time farm groups remain adamant that the 45Z system will benefit US producers. "The key for corn growers is to see a portion of 45Z make its way back to the farm, said Arians. "The ultimate goal of 45Z is to is to create opportunities for farmers", Kubik said. "And I do believe that farmers will be able to capitalize on those opportunities at the right time. It's just, kind of, working through the quirks." By Ryan Koory and Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Crops could help fill biofuel feedstock gap
Crops could help fill biofuel feedstock gap
London, 23 October (Argus) — Crop-based feedstocks will remain necessary to meet growing renewable fuel demand in the EU in the coming years, industry participants said at the Argus Biofuels Conference this week. This is because supplies of advanced feedstocks are unlikely to keep pace with expanding biofuel mandates. Global supply of waste-based oil could fall short of demand for advanced feedstocks by as much as 8mn t by 2030, according to Argus Analytics estimations, with tightness expected to emerge from 2027 and intensify from 2028. Waste based and advanced feedstocks remain central to European decarbonisation policies — with Annex IX Part A feedstocks' use uncapped under the latest EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) — but potential for supply growth is limited, and even increased investment in waste oil collection and pretreatment technologies is unlikely to close the gap, delegates heard. At the same time, renewable fuels of non-biological origin are commercially challenging and far from being deployed at scale, while greater adoption of electric vehicles could reduce pressure on biofuel feedstock demand, but progress remains constrained by infrastructure development and regulatory challenges. Meanwhile, first-generation crop-based feedstocks are among the scalable and cost-competitive options for meeting renewables targets in the coming years, while supplies of waste and advanced Annex IX Part A feedstocks remain constrained, panellists said. Current EU legislative framework diverges between member states, with RED III capping a country's crop-based fuel use at the lower threshold of one percentage point above its 2020 share or a 7pc ceiling. Looking ahead, crop-based fuels could gain some ground post-2030, as the European Commission's RED IV leaked impact assessment proposes a shift to a maximum 7pc cap across the board — a move that could increase food and feed crop-based biofuel quantities by 30pc, according to commission estimates. Increased uptake of higher greenhouse gas-saving (GHG) crops could also help to ease the feedstock gap out to 2030, particularly for member states that mandate biofuel use on a GHG reduction, rather than energetic basis. Intermediate crops also have significant production potential — cover crops planted on just 5pc of European arable land could theoretically produce nearly enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet EU aviation biofuel targets by 2030, BP's vice-president of regulatory affairs bioenergy Eirik Pitkethly told delegates this week. By Nataliia Haisonok Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil
Tight presidential runoff in store for Brazil
Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been narrowing the gap to senator Flavio Bolsonaro's lead in polls, but Lula still lags his challenger just days before the presidential election runoff set for 25 October. Opinion polls indicate that the contest remains close, with right-wing Bolsonaro holding a narrow advantage. A 21 October average of multiple polls by independent polling tracker Votendi put Bolsonaro at 51.2pc and Lula at 48.8pc, a 2.4 percentage-point gap. The margin of error is of 2.2 percentage points. Bolsonaro finished the first round of votes with 47pc, ahead of Lula's 45.16pc, leaving the two separated by about 2.2mn votes. Lula has aimed at undecided voters to narrow the gap, with more than 33mn Brazilians not voting in the first round. He sought to broaden his appeal since the first round by embracing several proposals aimed at conservative-leaning voters, including tax amnesty, debt renegotiation for microentrepreneurs and a lower age of criminal responsibility. He also proposed free weekend bus travel and earlier payment of the federal social welfare program, ideas that might appeal more to his left-wing base. Labor policy has been one of the clearest dividing lines of the campaign. Lula has championed a recently approved reduction in working hours, while Bolsonaro's allies have argued for greater labor-market flexibility, including wider use of hourly employment contracts. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has focused on the economy. He promises to cut R200bn-250bn ($39.8bn-49.7bn) from the federal budget, which financial markets view favorably. He has also promised to allow individuals to suspend repayments on personal debts for six months and for businesses to hold off for as long as a year. While the election campaigns have featured little debate over energy , investors remain focused on potential implications. A Lula victory would likely reinforce the government's approach to energy transition policies, including support for biofuels and renewable energy investment. Bolsonaro has generally favoured fewer environmental restrictions and could seek to accelerate licensing processes for agriculture, mining and oil. Energy markets are unlikely to face immediate disruptions under either candidate, given Brazil's importance as a major exporter, but differences in environmental policy and infrastructure investment could influence longer-term prospects. Corruption standoff Corruption allegations have dominated the campaign's final stretch. Bolsonaro has focused on the Operation Car Wash anti-corruption probe, which sent Lula to jail in 2018 on money laundering and corruption counts. He was later freed in 2019 after his convictions were annulled by the supreme court. Lula's campaign has accused Bolsonaro of money laundering and corruption scandals during the Covid-19 pandemic — when his father Jair Bolsonaro was president. It also has tried to tie him to Rio de Janeiro's militia — illegal mafia-like vigilante paramilitary groups. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing, saying there is no material evidence of participation in criminal schemes, extortion or the command of paramilitary groups. Lula has further challenged Bolsonaro to disclose his banking and telephone records to prove he is clean, saying he would do the same. Bolsonaro responded by demanding records for people close to the president. Lula obliged. A recent Quaest survey found that 52pc of voters disapproved of Bolsonaro, compared with 47pc for Lula. The same polling shows that 44pc of voters fear a Bolsonaro return to power, against 42pc who fear a Lula re-election. Institutional impact The runoff's result will have lasting consequences for Brazil's institutions, as Bolsonaro promises to revamp the judicial system and the constitution. Changes would include abolishing the right to re-election for executive branch offices and extending presidential and gubernatorial terms to five or six years from the current four. He says he would also promote changes to the supreme court's structure and powers, redefining the relationship between branches of government. Overhauling the judicial system or parts of the constitution would require the backing of large congressional majorities. Brazil also held legislative elections on 4 October, with Bolsonaro's Liberal party securing sweeping victories . It will hold 121 seats in the 513-member lower house and 28 in the 81-member senate. Therefore, Bolsonaro would likely face little resistance to enact changes. The next president will nominate four or five supreme court justices. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Moraes is seen as a Lula ally and emerged as a leading figure in the judiciary, especially for his role in high-profile investigations involving Bolsonaro and his allies. Those included the one that sent Jair Bolsonaro to jail for 27 years for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election following his defeat to Lula. Flavio Balsonaro would also likely attempt to win amnesty for his father in case he wins. Foreign policy Bolsonaro would probably pursue closer relations with US president Donald Trump after tariffs strained ties under Lula. His victory would add Brazil to a regional shift towards the right, following conservative electoral gains elsewhere including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. But it could weaken Brazil's claim to leadership in developing economies globally and diminish its role in international climate negotiations. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.