Cold snap grid performance tests coal reliability case
An early analysis of peak power demand during the recent polar vortex shows power grids were able to perform without major issues. That could provide a compelling argument against maintaining coal-fired generation to guarantee fuel security.
Temperatures fell to record lows in parts of the midwest and eastern US at the end of January and early February. Other regions also were significantly colder than normal.
But forced outages in the PJM Interconnection — the country's largest power grid — during the peak of the cold snap in January were well below those seen during the 2014 polar vortex. That occurred despite more than 18,000MW of coal-fired generation being retired in the grid operator's footprint since the start of 2015.
The grid performed "with flying colors," a PJM spokesman said this week. The initial analysis of grid performance "reinforced our preliminary findings in the fuel security report." That report, which PJM released in December 2018, showed the grid generally was in a good position to handle extreme weather events over the next few years but still should find a way to value fuel security.
Some of the reason power grids performed better than they did in 2014 may be that electricity demand was not as great. Even as low temperatures in the ComEd transmission zone in Northern Illinois fell to -24° F (-31° C) on 31 January, peak power demand in PJM was 139,452MW, the fourth highest on record.
In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), peak demand hit 100,900MW on 30 January, below the all-time winter peak of 109,300MW on 6 January 2014.
Improvements in grid management, including how the grids respond to outages, also probably helped resiliency and reliability. PJM had 21,359MW of forced outages during the recent winter peak, or 10.6pc of total capacity. During the 2014 polar vortex, it had 40,200MW — 22pc of total PJM capacity — of forced outages.
Previous winter peaks showed there were linkages between the systems along the grid that needed to be maintained, said Joshua Rhodes, a research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin's Energy Institute. Those connections include maintaining power supply to gas line compressors.
"It is important to keep those critical pathways open," Rhodes said. Doing so would reduce the competition between residential and power demand for natural gas — or at least keep natural gas flowing — he said.
But as power grids such as PJM and MISO transition away from coal and nuclear generation, and more toward natural gas and renewables, they could become more susceptible to fuel shortages, said Eric Hittinger, an associate professor of public policy at the Rochester Institute of Technology.
"In the midwest, the conjunction of three factors — sufficient natural gas supply, lower reliance on natural gas generation, and lower reliance on electric heating — makes extreme cold less of a reliability issue," Hittinger said.
But as the fuel slate shifts toward natural gas in the region, the competition for fuel would likely increase.
"The solution for that would be more pipelines," Hittinger said.
PJM has 47,930MW of natural gas generation in its queue for delivery in coming years and MISO has 20,454MW. PJM also has planned additions of 18,925MW of solar and 5,003MW of wind.
Meanwhile, more coal and nuclear plant retirements are on the way. PJM is expecting more than 7,000MW of coal-fired capacity to retire through 2022 and 4,750MW of nuclear generation through 2021, while Argus has 9,932MW of coal generation going off line in MISO over the next 10 years.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) published a risk assessment in December that found fuel supplies in PJM, MISO and Southeast Electric Reliability Council – East (SERC-E) were vulnerable to extreme winters, particularly during prolonged periods of cold weather, if power plant retirements are accelerated.
The risk assessment led a group of power executives to ask the PJM board of directors to address urgent fuel security issues stemming from the loss of coal-fired and nuclear power plants. Executives from utility holding companies Public Service Enterprise Group, Duke Energy, Exelon and First Energy in a 29 January letter to PJM chastised the grid operator for failing to respond the potential risks associated with accelerated plant retirements.
Exelon, which owns the ComEd system in Northern Illinois, said its nuclear plants in Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania were running at full power during the cold snap in January. The company's 837MW Three Mile Island unit 1 in Pennsylvania is scheduled to retire at the end of September.
Fuel security has been a frequent item of discussion for the coal industry and the administration of President Donald Trump. In September 2017, the administration proposed compensating coal and nuclear plants for their contributions to "grid resiliency." The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected that proposal in January 2018.
The administration tried again in June, with Trump ordering US energy secretary Rick Perry to prepare steps to stop impending plant retirements, arguing the retirements are making it harder for the grid to recover from natural disasters, cyber intrusions or physical attacks on energy infrastructure.
But retirement announcements have continued. And grid infrastructure may be more stable than some expected.
While NERC warned about accelerated retirements, it also said lessons learned from the 2014 polar vortex about preparation for extreme weather improved reliability during the recent cold snap.
MISO said it is continuing to evaluate data for the recent winter peak, and will comment once the study is completed.
No matter what the final analysis shows, the resiliency debate is likely to continue with a White House keen on protecting coal and nuclear generation.
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Australian new environment agency to speed up approvals
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Engie to switch Chile coal plant to energy storage
Engie to switch Chile coal plant to energy storage
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April-May maintenance to close Australian coal systems
April-May maintenance to close Australian coal systems
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Panama Canal to restrict May transits on work
Panama Canal to restrict May transits on work
New York, 9 April (Argus) — Maintenance at the Panama Canal for the Panamax locks, responsible for around 70pc of all ship crossings at the waterway, will cut the daily number of vessel transits through these locks for nine days in mid-May, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) said today. The ACP said it will reduce Panamax lock transits from 7 May to 14 May by three to a total of 17. The cuts entail two fewer "super" category slots for vessels like medium range (MR) tankers and Supramax bulkers and one fewer "regular" category slot for smaller vessels. An additional day of downtime "allowing 24 hours for unforeseeable maintenance delays" will put the projected end-date for maintenance and the return to 20 total Panamax lock transits on 16 May, according to the ACP, constituting a nine-day reduced-transit period that should drop total transits in the period by around 27 vessels. The potential for heightened competition amid a backlog of vessels vying to transit during this time could be mitigated by assigning "additional transits per day for each vessel category" based on the canal's "daily water consumption quota", according to the ACP. "These additional slots may be assigned to booked vessels that have already arrived at canal waters," the ACP said. "This measure is a temporary service subject to operational assessment, open to all vessel types based on the arrival date." The maintenance will primarily target the west lane of the Gatun locks, where ships enter the Panama Canal from the Atlantic basin, while the ACP noted that the east lane of the Miraflores locks on the Pacific side will undergo a simultaneous maintenance period from 11-12 May. Panamax lock transit auction prices hit low The average cost for ship operators to win an auction to transit the Panama Canal via the Panamax locks hit its lowest level Monday since Argus began the assessment in January on lower demand, particularly for dry bulkers utilizing alternative routings, and an uptick in auction slots in early March . "Since the peak period last year, auction prices have leveled off. They are generally near normal levels today," said the ACP. The rate for a Panamax lock auction dropped by $14,173 to $94,314, the lowest average price to transit since 26 January and representing a drop of $450,936 from the high hit on 5 February on a jump in demand ahead of lunar new year holidays across Asia-Pacific. Of the smaller dry bulkers that can fit in the Panamax locks, only 34 Handysize, 38 Supramax, and 31 Ultramax bulkers transited the Panama Canal in March compared with the 92 Handysize, 66 Supramax, and 88 Ultramax bulkers that transited in March 2023, the lowest number of transits in March for these segments through 2017, according to Kpler data. Dry bulk Panama Canal transits down, tanker transits stabilizing The share of dry bulkers utilizing the Panamax locks at the Panama Canal was at 15.2pc of total transits in February, down from the 25.5pc share that dry bulkers held in September 2023, according to ACP data, before the ACP instituted daily vessel restrictions and the current prebooking/auction slot system supplanted the previous, first-come, first-serve waiting system in late October 2023. Meanwhile, 149 MR tankers transited in March, down from the 169 that transited in the same period the year prior but up from the 107 MRs that crossed the canal in February. MR transits have risen every year in March, according to Kpler, as west coast South America diesel demand jumps on the resurgence of refinery utilization in the US Gulf coast after the first quarter turnaround season draws to a close. Crude, product, and chemical tanker transits rose by 1.7 percentage points to 30.3pc, making up the plurality of all Panamax lock transits collectively in February from September 2023, according to ACP data. The uptick in available Panamax lock auctions in early March has likely offset the steady demand for these vessels and contributed to the downward pressure on auction prices, while the reduced transits during the upcoming nine days of maintenance could reverse this trend in the short term. ACP expects transit restrictions to lift by 2025 In the long term, the Panama Canal expects a return to normalcy within the next two years, beginning with the start of the rainy season in the coming weeks. "Current forecasts indicate that steady rainfall will arrive in late April and continue for a few months," the ACP said today. "If this remains the case, the canal plans to gradually ease transit restrictions, allowing conditions to fully normalize by 2025." By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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