Global EV sales to reach 54mn by 2030
Global electic vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 54mn by 2030 and changing lithium-ion battery chemistry will transform battery metals demand in the coming years, delegates at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC) in Wiesbaden, Germany, heard yesterday.
Worldwide, EVs will have a 40pc market share by 2030, with cumulative sales of up to 54.3mn, according to forecasts from P3 Automotive. By 2025, global EV sales are expected to have exceeded 30mn and make up 25pc of the market. And this year, they are expected to pass 10mn, making up just under 10pc of new car sales.
The growth is expected to come as limits for vehicles' CO2 emissions are reduced.
In China, average vehicle emissions are expected to fall to 71g/km in 2030 from 119g/km this year. The number of EVs in China is expected to rise to 23mn from 5.8mn over the same period, making China the largest market globally. In the EU, CO2 emissions must fall to 59g/km in 2030, down from 95g/km this year, and number of EVs is expected to rise to 10.7mn by 2030, up from 2.1mn this year.
If carmakers do not hit these targets, they could face large government penalties, especially in the EU, where Groupe PSA expects fines exceed €240mn for each gram above the target.
Battery chemistry to shift by 2025
A shift in the chemistry of batteries towards higher lithium and nickel density and lower cobalt levels will also define battery metals demand in the coming years, according to Lux Research.
As buyers demand greater range and duration between charges, battery manufacturers will move towards higher nickel cathodes, which offer improved capacity. There will also be a move towards silicon anodes by 2025, before a switch to solid state lithium anodes by 2030.
Currently, most lithium-ion batteries contain cathodes that are made from lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide (NMC), with a ratio of either 5 parts nickel-3 parts manganese-2 parts cobalt, or a 6-2-2 ratio and a graphite anode.
To cut costs and maximise efficiency, battery manufacturers are looking to reduce the cobalt and manganese content, moving to an 8-1-1 ratio. This can be dangerous. Cobalt stabilises battery chemistry and reducing it can lead to explosions, but this year China will launch the first commercial car to contain an 8-1-1 battery. China is a testing ground for riskier forms of battery chemistry.
As cooling technology improves, the risk of electrical fires is reduced, and cell makers are expected to shift to this chemistry. By 2025, Lux says most manufacturers will use some form of 8-8-1 battery.
As a result, cobalt demand growth could be slower than expected after 2025, but nickel and especially nickel sulphate demand could grow sharply.
The use of silicon in anodes is also expected to increase. Silicon improves battery performance, but it expands and contracts, which can cause problems. Still, incremental gains mean the market could start to see widespread inclusion of silicon from 2023. Demand for extremely pure grades of silicon metal would increase, while demand growth for graphite would slow.
Demand for metals being used less in battery chemistry would still grow thanks to exponential growth expected in the EV market between now and 2030.
By Thomas Kavanagh
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