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South Korea’s fundamental fuel economics and policy
South Korea’s fundamental fuel economics and policy
London, 8 June (Argus) — The dynamic between thermal coal and LNG in South Korea's energy mix is more relevant than ever in the wake of the Mideast Gulf war, with surging prices, supply disruptions and evolving government policy all dictating the shape of South Korea's electricity generation. Generation margin advantage Coal has maintained substantial cost advantages over gas-fired generation since the US/Israel-Iran war began. On 6 March, thermal coal generation costs in South Korea were estimated at 75.83 won/kWh, compared with W216.22/kWh for LNG. Argus' NAR 5,800 kcal/kg thermal coal assessment rose by $19/t to $115.63/t cfr South Korea on 6 March, while northeast Asia (ANEA) front-month spot LNG prices more than doubled over the same period to $23.665/mn Btu from $10.715/mn Btu . April: Full switching to coal In April, South Korea demonstrated substantial fuel switching away from gas to coal. South Korean coal burn averaged 15GW in April, up by 42pc from around 10.6GW in 2025. Gas generation was down by 6.2pc, equivalent to an LNG demand cut of approximately 110,000t. This marked the first full month without any Qatari LNG deliveries following the outbreak of the Middle East war. May-June: Persistent coal support, constrained gas burn Despite ongoing government efforts to preserve LNG stocks, coal's dominance continued. Gas-fired output fell to 15.9GW for the rolling four-week average over 27 April–24 May 2026, down by 4.4pc on the year, while coal-fired output rose by 16.5pc to about 15GW over the same period. However, at least six LNG cargoes were diverted to South Korea in May, signalling spot demand driven by summer temperatures. Structural constraints on fuel switching South Korea's ability to fuel-switch away from gas is constrained by persistent grid bottlenecks. New renewable, nuclear and coal-fired power plants in coastal areas lack sufficient grid capacity to transfer power to urban demand centres. This structural constraint has kept a higher floor for gas-fired output, particularly during off-peak hours. Coal's balancing role During the spring shoulder season (typically March–June), South Korea implements countermeasures forcing generators to run coal-fired units at minimum levels to maintain grid stability. Coal-fired plants require higher minimum stable output than gas-fired units, making them far less flexible when solar output spikes in the middle of the day. As a result, gas-fired plants have been relied on as the main balancing power source during peak renewable generation hours. Policy and energy transition The South Korean government previously pledged to phase out coal entirely by 2040 but shifted to a more flexible stance following Middle East energy disruptions. By 14 April, the government signalled the possibility of delaying its coal exit plan in response to the war in the Middle East, although it simultaneously reaffirmed its commitment to expand renewables to 100GW by 2030. Near-term outlook and summer 2026 demand South Korea is forecast to experience a hotter-than-normal summer in June–August, with its meteorological agency indicating over a 50pc chance of above-average temperatures. This could increase power demand and LNG requirements. But the country faces tighter structural supply dynamics. Nuclear availability is scheduled to fall to 19.4GW in June–August from 20.1GW a year earlier, assuming the Wolsong reactors under maintenance stay off line. Coal-fired capacity will gradually return from maintenance, with 4.7GW set to have returned by the end of May, but this will only partially offset the government's ability to switch away from gas. Gas tariff and electricity price pressures are likely to persist, encouraging continued reliance on coal where operationally feasible. S Korea 40% coal switching price S Korea 44, 40% DS, 58% SS Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran says suspends military operation against Israel
Iran says suspends military operation against Israel
London, 8 June (Argus) — Iran has suspended its attacks on Israel, state media said today citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Crude prices pared some earlier gains. The IRGC said it has suspended military operations that saw ballistic missiles fired at targets in northern Israel. This was Iran's first attack on Israel since 8 April, and promoted retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on what it said were military targets in western and central Iran. "Any continuation of [Israeli] hostilities and wrongdoing — particularly in southern Lebanon — will be met with far harsher and more devastating actions than those previously taken," the IRGC said according to state news agency IRNA. Tehran deems Israeli military action in Lebanon as a part of the wider war involving the two countries and the US, and has said it wants an end to Jerusalem's incursions as part of any deal that could reopen the strait of Hormuz. Israel and Lebanon's central government have reached several ceasefire agreements, with the US facilitating those talks. But Lebanon's central government has little control over Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that has been attacking civilian and military targets in northern Israel. Earlier on Monday, US president Donald Trump appealed for calm. "Israel and Iran must immediately stop "shooting"," he wrote on his Truth Social account. He again said a peace deal is close, "subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way", and said the US naval blockade of Iranian shipping in the Gulf of Oman "will remain in place and in full force and effect", until a deal is reached. The front-month August Ice Brent contract fell back from earlier highs after the Iranian announcement, to trade up by around 1pc on the day at $94.13/bl as of 11:50 GMT. It hit an intraday high of above $98/bl earlier in the day. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US sanctions will limit shipper engagement with PGSA
US sanctions will limit shipper engagement with PGSA
Dubai, 8 June (Argus) — Any vessels engaging with Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to secure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz are highly unlikely to be owned or chartered by major tanker operators or oil companies, and will be making any toll payments to Iran without using US dollars, shipping sources tell Argus. Tehran established the PGSA at the start of May to assert control over shipping passing through the strait, access to which Iran has severely restricted since the start of the US-Iran war at the end of February. The PGSA said this week that more than 300 non-Iranian vessels had submitted information to it since it began operations to secure safe passage through the waterway. About 42pc of the vessels were oil tankers and 8pc LNG carriers, it said. Around 77pc of vessels submitting requests were looking to exit the strait, and 23pc looking to enter, it added, noting that of those vessels looking to exit, around 28pc were destined for China, 19pc for India and another 23pc for elsewhere in Asia. The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) imposed sanctions on the PGSA at the end of May, and this will act as a serious deterrent to major listed oil companies and tanker operators from engaging with Iran, shipping sources say. "Large shipping companies are typically publicly listed and can't simply make payments to Iran for transit," one broker says. "Every financial transaction is closely monitored, and payments are usually conducted in US dollars. Falling under Ofac sanctions would carry significant consequences, including the freezing of assets and accounts, making the risks substantial." Shadow play But the situation may be different for vessels in the so-called "shadow fleet" that has handled sanctioned trade in Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil in recent years, other sources suggest, or for shipowners from countries such as China that have been less concerned about US sanctions. Operators of such vessels may be able to limit their exposure to Ofac sanctions risk by settling any payments to the PGSA using local currencies such as the Chinese yuan, or via alternative mechanisms like cryptocurrency transfers. It is even possible, a shipping consultant suggests, that Iran may be looking at payment in kind, from the vessel's flag state or beneficiary state, such as military equipment or aid, which would also make it hard for Ofac to link payment directly to the actual transit. Insurance is another consideration that would limit engagement with the PGSA, shipping sources add. "Any international insurer will have warranties on their war policies meaning normal [non-"shadow fleet"] ships cannot pay any money to [Iran's] Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)," one insurance broker notes. That would deter a shipper from paying a toll to the PGSA, the broker said, although it might not necessarily prevent them from contacting the authority for permission to transit the strait. Ofac's sanctions statement explicitly linked the PGSA to the IRGC, noting that it "extorts vessels transiting the strait of Hormuz through the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a government agency aimed at imposing illegitimate tolls on commercial traffic". Some shipping sources also remain sceptical of the PGSA's claims, which are hard to verify given that the few vessels still moving through Hormuz routinely turn off their transponders to disguise identity and reduce the risk of attack. "I don't believe 300 owners signed up for this," a shipping source with one oil company tells Argus. "I think this is one of their media plays." By Anna Cherkizova, Nader Itayim and Sean Lui Mideast Gulf crude export infrastructure Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Union escalates strikes at Australia's Ichthys LNG
Union escalates strikes at Australia's Ichthys LNG
Singapore, 8 June (Argus) — Oil and gas workers at the 9.3mn t/yr Ichthys LNG project near Australia's northern city of Darwin will escalate strike actions starting today, according to the Offshore Alliance (OA) union. Under the latest escalation, union members last night voted to extend work stoppages from the original four hours to eight hours until they reach an agreement with project operator Japanese upstream firm Inpex. Bans on loading and unloading cargoes at the facility will start on 11 June, likely in addition to other work bans to be announced later. Initial strike action which began on 3 June included union members downing tools between 6am-8am and 6pm-8pm, and bans on overcycle, working past 6am on demobilisation day, and swapping between day shift and night shift without at least four weeks' notice from management. All three Inpex facilities will be disrupted by stoppages of work and work bans, including the onshore processing facilities and LNG terminal at Darwin harbour, the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) and central processing facility (CPF) units. About four cargoes per month are expected to be lost from these strikes, traders said. Some producers initially planned to go into the spot market to seek replacement cargoes when news of the strikes first broke out about two weeks ago, they added. The producers later abandoned their purchasing plans when the union paused strikes planned for 27 and 28 May, due to progress made in bargaining talks, an OA spokesperson said on 26 May. There are no known negotiations between the OA and Inpex scheduled at this point. Inpex has not responded to Argus' request for comment. By Rou Urn Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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