Fertilizers
Overview
The fertilizer industry has seen dramatic changes in market dynamics, with challenges posed by policy and regulatory changes, political instability, conflicts and new macroeconomic realities. The drive towards energy transition and ambitious zero-carbon goals has also opened up the industry to new entrants and new opportunities.
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India’s sulphur export halt to trim availability
India’s sulphur export halt to trim availability
Singapore, 28 July (Argus) — India's suspension of sulphur exports will further reduce availability in the seaborne sulphur market, although the impact is unlikely to be substantial because export activity has already slowed from April. No official documents have been released on India's sulphur export restrictions , but market participants widely understand that Indian refiners will be unable to export sulphur until further notice. Discussion of a potential export suspension first emerged in April , when a meeting was convened with major industry players after the Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI) called on the chemicals and fertilizers ministry to impose a minimum six-month ban on exports of elemental sulphur. The GCCI cited tightening supply, rising prices and the risk of disruption to fertilizer production. The export suspension is expected to primarily affect private-sector refiner Reliance Industries (RIL), India's main sulphur exporter, with cargoes typically loading from Bedi port on the country's west coast. India exported 356,900t of sulphur in January-April, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data. No cargoes were shipped in May because refiners had already began to prioritise supply to domestic contract customers. Exports were mainly directed to China and Brazil, which received 142,900t and 110,000t, respectively, while the remaining volumes were shipped to Indonesia. The loss of Indian exports comes on the back of an already severely constrained global sulphur market, owing to the de-facto closure of the strait of Hormuz. India is heavily reliant on imported sulphur for fertilizer production. The country imported 2.25mn t of sulphur in 2025, with around 84pc sourced from the Middle East. Imports fell by 26pc on the year to 698,200t in January-May due to the outbreak of the US-Iran war. Concerns are also growing among sulphuric acid exporters that the government could extend export restrictions to sulphuric acid, but no official notice or proposal has been reported. By Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pakistan buys less DAP in June, stocks rise
Pakistan buys less DAP in June, stocks rise
London, 23 July (Argus) — Pakistani DAP inventories rose by 48,000t in June to 268,000t, their strongest month-on-month increase since January, as domestic demand remained underwhelming. Domestic output slowed to 52,000t but still outpaced demand last month, research and development agency NFDC data show. The arrival of 45,000t of Saudi Arabian DAP in the second half of the month further boosted inventories. Domestic demand fell to its lowest since January at 48,000t, in a period that typically sees a seasonal boost in sales. This is below the 122,000t June average in 2021-25, as farmers see DAP as unaffordable. Ex-Karachi prices have remained above Rs15,000/50kg bag at the low end since the first half of May. This is above levels in recent years and exceeds the threshold at which importers warned that demand destruction and substitution with SSP and 18-20 "nitrophos" would occur. Imports deterred by demand destruction Fresh imports in the rest of the quarter, ahead of the high offtake season for wheat applications over October-November, are unlikely as distributors are bearish about domestic offtake for this year. The continued closure of the strait of Hormuz and recent escalation in tensions around the Bab-el-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea have supported the DAP price outlook for the coming months. The likely emergence of Bangladeshi and particularly Indian DAP demand will tighten availability further and keep prices elevated. This means that global DAP levels are unlikely to slip to a point that would allow margins for domestic sales in Pakistan. At the same time, suppliers are struggling to raise domestic DAP prices without putting farmers off from buying. The consensus among suppliers for total 2026 DAP offtake is that the market will not exceed 1mn t of demand, which would be about 35pc lower than the yearly average in 2021-25. The cut will be skewed towards the high season in the fourth quarter. The government last year also stopped supporting wheat purchases, and while there have been hopes of subsidy schemes in the country, there is no guarantee that the government will have the revenues to support the sector. Despite limited demand, conglomerate Fauji has indicated that it will keep producing DAP at close to capacity for the rest of this year. This leaves little room for private-sector importers to bring in fresh DAP despite some of them holding low inventories. Pakistan can thus be expected to largely remain out of the international market for the rest of the year. By Adrien Seewald Pakistan long-term DAP inventories-offtake '000t Pakistan supply-demand in kharif 2026 '000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs to exclude Canadian fertilizers
New tariffs to exclude Canadian fertilizers
Houston, 22 July (Argus) — Potash and other fertilizers will be exempt from new import tariffs imposed on Canadian products this week. US president Donald Trump on 20 July signed three new orders under the Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to add a 50pc import tariff on certain Canadian goods . The new tariff will apply to a range of products, including some goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement. Fertilizer products such as potash, sulfur, and sulfuric acid were not included in the orders' list of tariffed items. The Trump administration said it seeks to revise the USMCA, which was negotiated during Trump's first term. The US Trade Representative's office on 1 July decided against renewing the deal in its current form , meaning the three countries will have to hold annual reviews and seek a consensus on a long-term extension beyond 2036. The new Section 338 tariffs will be applied beginning 19 August, 30 days after its signing. By Benedetta Tommaselli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Commerce recommends keeping Moroccan phosphate duty
Commerce recommends keeping Moroccan phosphate duty
Houston, 21 July (Argus) — The US Department of Commerce today recommended keeping countervailing duties in place for Moroccan phosphate imports, despite an eight-month suspension of the measure implemented by US president Donald Trump in June. Commerce determined that the revocation of the countervailing duty order on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers would likely lead to the continuation of a countervailable subsidy, according to the preliminary results of its five-year review. Commerce said today that if the duty order were to be revoked, Moroccan producer OCP would likely receive subsidies at a level of 20.04pc from Morocco. This rate represents the original investigation rate of 19.97pc, minus a now-terminated export-tax incentive program but includes new Moroccan subsidy programs found in later administrative reviews. Late last month, Trump temporarily suspended countervailing duties on certain phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco for eight months or until the order is terminated, citing a "supply emergency" for US farmers. There have been no confirmed sales of Moroccan phosphate to the US since Trump's suspension. With today's recommendation, it is unclear how OCP will move forward with its participation in the US fertilizer market. Commerce found that several Moroccan subsidy programs are still considered active and assumes the subsidies will continue. The 20.04pc subsidy rate reported by Commerce is not considered the new duty rate but is a recommendation for the International Trade Commission to consider. The review, which began in early March , included participation from US fertilizer producers Mosaic and Simplot, the government of Morocco and OCP. The final results of the review are expected to be published around 28 October, 240 days from the start of the review. OCP and Russian fertilizer producers have been subject to countervailing duties on phosphate exports to the US since 2021, after Mosaic filed a petition with authorities alleging the two countries' imports materially injured the US market. Commerce also recommended countervailing duties remain on Russian phosphate fertilizer imports in its five-year review's final results, saying that Russian producers would also continue to receive countervailable subsidies. Commerce's final result rates are 24.11pc for Russian producer EuroChem, 14.64pc for PhosAgro, and 16.64pc for all others, according to the ruling posted on 30 June. Commerce also noted that Russia's review process was expedited because interest from domestic parties Mosaic and Simplot was adequate, while Russia did not respond or participate in proceedings. Many fertilizer traders were not surprised by Russia's lack of participation in its sunset review, but are uncertain of how OCP will proceed after the latest ruling. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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