Fertilizers
Overview
The fertilizer industry has seen dramatic changes in market dynamics, with challenges posed by policy and regulatory changes, political instability, conflicts and new macroeconomic realities. The drive towards energy transition and ambitious zero-carbon goals has also opened up the industry to new entrants and new opportunities.
It is more vital than ever for market participants to have the full picture – to capitalise on the opportunities and manage the risk of the challenges.
Argus’ fertilizer market intelligence will empower you to work smarter:
- Our price reporting services provide robust daily and weekly price assessments, market moving news, actionable market commentary and proprietary data
- Our short-term outlook and medium to long-term analytics services connect you with industry-leading forecasts and analysis of prices, supply, demand, costs, trade and projects
- Our consulting services partner with you to deliver fully bespoke consulting solutions, including market-specific research and analysis
Our market coverage
Argus is the leading independent provider of market intelligence to the global fertilizer market.
Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights
The complimentary Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights package includes:
• Bi-weekly Fertilizer Newsletter
• Monthly Market Update Video
• Bi-monthly Fertilizer Focus Magazine
Latest fertilizer news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global fertilizer industry.
Brazil's drought: River levels rise after declines
Brazil's drought: River levels rise after declines
Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazilian grain and fertilizer shipments remain at risk from low river levels along key waterways, as the worst drought in Brazil's history continues to hamper inland navigation. But rivers have recovered this week, because of increased rainfall in the country, with their levels rising again after almost a month of extended declines. Madeira waterway The Madeira waterway links Rondonia state's capital Porto Velho to Itacoatiara port in Amazonas state, and is the second largest in the northern region. Itacoatiara is expected to receive around 70,634 metric tonnes (t) of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from shipping agency Unimar. The Madeira river's depth at Porto Velho increased to 91cm on 23 October, from 46cm on 18 October, according to monitoring data from Brazil's geological survey SGB. But navigation remains suspended at the port after the state's ports and waterways authority SOPH halted operations on 23 September in response to the Madeira registering its lowest level since monitoring began in 1967. Amazon waterway The Amazon River is the main waterway in northern Brazil, handling around 65pc of the region's cargo, according to national transportation and infrastructure department DNIT. It links Amazonas state capital Manaus to Para state capital Belem. The Negro river's depth was at 12.56m at the SGB monitoring point in Manaus on 23 October, up from 12.46m on 18 October. This still exceeds the previous historic low of 12.7m over the past 121 years of monitoring. Tapajos waterway Tapajos is an important waterway for moving product from the northern part of Mato Grosso state to Santarem port in Para state. Santarem is expected to receive 130,234t of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from Unimar. The Tapajos-Teles Pires waterway is also facing a dire situation. National water and sanitation agency ANA declared a water shortage on the Tapajos river on 23 September. Drier than usual weather has reduced river levels — especially between Itaituba and Santarem cities, in Para state — to below the historic minimum. The depth of the Tapajos at the Itaituba monitoring point, where the transfer point for the Miritituba waterway is located, was 1.03m on 23 October, up from 92cm on 18 October but still below the previous record low of 1.32m, according to SGB data. At the Santarem monitoring point, the Tapajos was at 27cm, a level considered to be dry. The level was 28cm on 18 October. The historic minimum at the location is -55cm below the port's reference point. A level below zero does not mean the river is dry, but indicates extremely low levels. Tocantins-Araguaia waterway The Tocantins-Araguaia waterway encompasses the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. It runs from Barra do Garcas city, in Mato Grosso, into the Araguaia river, or from Peixes city, in Tocantins state, into the Tocantins river to the port of Vila do Conde, in Para state. Soybeans, corn, fertilizers, fuels, mineral oils and derivative products are transported along the northern waterways. Vila do Conde is expected to receive 245,500t of fertilizers in October, according to Unimar. The SGB has two monitoring points on the Araguaia river. In Nova Crixas city, in Goias state, the river was at 3.11m on 23 October, up from 2.85m on 18 October, surpassing the previous historic minimum of 3.10m. In Sao Felix do Araguaia city, in Mato Grosso state, the Araguaia was at 2.71m, up from 2.56m on 18 October, recovering from extreme drought-like levels and moving away from the historic low of 2.51m. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nutrien restarts operations at White Springs
Nutrien restarts operations at White Springs
Houston, 21 October (Argus) — Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien today confirmed the restart of the company's White Springs, Florida, phosphate fertilizer facility, which was shut last month by Hurricane Helene. Production at the plant is ramping up, the company said without responding to a question on how much production was lost during the outage. The plant was shut by storm-induced power outages as Hurricane Helene made landfall on 26 September, so the plant was off line for at least three weeks. The plant produced 1.27mn t of phosphate rock in 2023, according to Nutrien's annual report, so three weeks of production would equate to roughly 800,000t of phosphate rock. Helene also shut operations at rival fertilizer producer Mosaic's phosphate facility in Riverview, Florida , which is expected to return to normal operations later this week. By Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's 2024-25 crop to total 322.5mn t: Correction
Brazil's 2024-25 crop to total 322.5mn t: Correction
Corrects estimates for wheat crop in the first paragraph the "Wheat, cotton lint" subhed. Sao Paulo, 18 October (Argus) — Brazil´s 2024-25 grain and oilseed crop is set to reach approximately 322.5mn t, 8.3pc above the 2023-24 results amid an increased outlook for estimated yields. The national supply company (Conab) released its first estimate report for the 2024-25 season and expects yields of 3,964 kg/hectare (ha), up by 6.2pc from the prior cycle. The planted area forecast was increased to 81.3mn ha from 79.8mn ha in 2023-24 crop. Conab has also revised slightly down its final yield and production estimates for the 2023-24 crop. The previous season produced 297.9mn t — from 298.4mn t estimated last month — with average yields of 3,731 kg/ha — instead of the 3,739 kg/ha last estimated. Planted area remained at 79.8mn ha. The volume is also below the preliminary outlook for the 2024-25 crop, which Conab released in September. Conab's publication estimated 326.9mn t, which would be a new record for Brazil. The planted area was estimated at 84.4mn ha, with yields of 4,016 kg/ha. Soybean Brazil's 2024-25 soybean crop is expected to total 166.1mn t, a rise of 12.7pc from the 2023-24 season's volumes of 147.4mn t. The output is slightly down from preliminary estimates from September, when Conab estimated production of 166.3mn t, with a planted area of 47.4mn ha and yields at 3,508 kg/ha. The yearly increase is supported by higher sowed area and yield estimates. Conab projects the cycle to sow approximately 47.3mn ha, an expansion of 1.3mn ha on the year, while estimated yields were up by 9.6pc to 3,508 kg/ha. Corn Brazil is initially set to produce 119.7mn t of corn in 2024-25, including the first, second and third crops, according to Conab. That is 3.5pc — or 4mn t — above the 2023-24 volumes. The increase is supported by the 3.7pc rise of expected yields to 5,701 kg/ha. Planted area is estimated at 21mn ha, down by 0.2pc from the 2023-24 cycle. Conab estimated in September production of 119.8mn t, with a planted area and yields of 21mn ha and 5,706 kg/ha, respectively. For the winter corn cycle — also known as the second crop — Conab projects that the 2024-25 second corn crop will produce 94.6mn t, up by 4.8pc from 90.3mn t in the previous crop. Yield estimates were increased to 5,702 kg/ha from 5,491 kg/ha, while the planted area estimate went up by nearly 159,200ha to 16.6mn ha. In September, Conab estimated production of 94mn t, with a planted area of 16.5mn ha and yields at 5,700 kg/ha. The 2024-25 summer corn — also known as the first crop — is expected to decrease by 1.1pc to 22.7mn t this year. The 5.4pc reduction in acreage to 3.8mn ha more than offsets the 4.6pc expected increase of yields to 6,049 kg/ha. In September, Conab estimated production of 23.4mn t, with a planted area of 3.8mn ha and yields at 6,080 kg/ha. Wheat, cotton lint Brazil's wheat production is estimated at approximately 8.3mn t in 2024. Yields and planted area are set to reach 2,693 kg/ha and 3.1mn ha, respectively. Conab should release the estimate for 2025 crop in February, as planting usually starts in main producing states. Conab projects the 2024-25 cotton lint production at 3.7mn t, approximately 7,900t below the previous season. The yearly decrease is driven by a 3.1pc drop of yields to 1,831 kg/ha, more than offsetting the 2.9pc expansion in estimated planted area to over 2mn ha. In September, Conab preliminarily estimated production of 3.7mn t, with a planted area of 2mn ha and yields at 1,831 kg/ha. 2024-25 soy exports revised up Brazil's expected 2024-25 soybean exports are set to total a record 105.5mn t. That is up by 14.2pc — or 13.1mn t — from 92.4mn t in the previous crop, amid a higher demand expected specially from China. Soybean crushing for the season is set to total 56.6mn t up by 8pc from the previous crop, amid an expected increase of soybean oil production by nearly 830,000 t to 11.4mn t. But corn exports are set to drop to 34mn t in the 2024-25 crop from 36mn t in the previous cycle. The 2023-24 corn exports represent a decrease by 27pc compared to the record 54.6mn t exported a year previous. Lower Brazilian production and higher international availability, specially considering the US production, weigh on exports from Brazil. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
Washington, 17 October (Argus) — Eastern US railroad said it expects that fourth quarter commodity market conditions will be mixed, limiting some freight demand. "Going into the fourth quarter, near-term conditions look modestly more challenging," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said on Wednesday. But the railroad expects "modest volume growth", supported by a few segments including chemicals and agriculture. But lower locomotive fuel prices and the impact of international coking coal prices, which are linked to export rail contracts, could drive a decrease in total revenue during the fourth quarter. He estimated that impact at roughly $200mn compared with last year's fourth quarter revenue of $3.68bn. CSX expects to see a carryover of year-over-year momentum in chemicals, agriculture and food, forest products and minerals, while metals and automotive will continue to be challenged. Demand for metals shipments is predicted to soften through the end of the year. Interest in shipments, particularly steel, is soft because of "sluggish demand, ample supply and low commodity prices", chief commercial officer Kevin Boone said. A weaker-than-anticipated automotive market contributed to the drop in metals demand. Consumer demand for automotive products has been reduced by high retail prices and interest rates, which has led to increased dealer inventories and slower production, Boone said. But CSX expects that an "interest rate easing cycle will help these markets normalize," Boone said. Metals and equipment volume fell in the second quarter, primarily because of lower steel and scrap shipments. Shipments of metals and equipment fell by 9pc to about 64,000 carloads compared with the same three months in 2023. Revenue dropped to $208mn, down by 8pc from a year earlier. Automotive volume dropped in the second quarter because of lower North American vehicle production, CSX said. Automotive traffic fell to 301,000 railcars loaded, down by 2pc from the third quarter 2023. Automotive revenue dropped to $98mn, down by 3pc compared with a year earlier. The outlook for fertilizer shipments is mixed following the third quarter as a decline in long-haul phosphates shipments persisted. Volume was negative, but the railroad was able to haul some profitable spot shipments. Shipments of fertilizer fell to 45,000 carloads in the third quarter, down by 4pc from a year earlier. Fertilizer revenue dropped to $118mn, down by 5pc from a year earlier. CSX expects growth in some market segments. Chemicals freight demand is expected to continue growing following "consistent, broad strength across plastics, industrial chemicals, LPGs, and waste. That demand helped boost chemicals volume by 9pc compared with a year earlier. Chemicals revenue rose to $727mn in the second quarter, up by 13pc compared with a year earlier. Agricultural and food products shipping demand is expected to continue growing, led by demand for grain and feed ingredients from the Midwest for supplies. That follows a third quarter when higher ethanol shipments, as well as increased overall volume helped raise volume by 9pc from the third quarter of 2023. Revenue from shipping agricultural and food products rose to $416mn, up by 11pc from a year earlier. CSX expects intermodal growth to continue with the trucking market falling, which would help drive more container freight to rail. Intermodal shipments are goods shipped in containers and trailers between different modes of transportation. The 1-3 October strike by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) did impact intermodal traffic, but the railroad was pleased with the "relatively quick short-term solution", Boone said. International intermodal volume during the third quarter rose because of higher east-coast port traffic. Domestic volume was mostly flat. Overall intermodal volume during the quarter increased by 3pc compared with a year earlier. But lower revenue per container helped reduce total intermodal revenue by 2pc to $509mn. CSX does not expect a major shift in coal volume through the end of the year as coal markets seem relatively stable and utility stockpiles are sufficient, Boone said. Rising natural gas prices are also unlikely to stimulate a "near-term step-up in volumes". Export coal demand has been consistent lately, particularly from buyers in Asia. But revenue per railcar for export coal could make a modest single digit drop, as contracts are tied to international coal benchmarks and prices fell earlier this year. Expport coal voume rose to 11.1mn short tons (10.1mn metric tonnes) in the second quarter on higher demand for thermal and coking coal. But domestic coal deliveries fell to 10.2mn st, down by 12pc from a year earlier, on lower deliveries to power plants and lake and river terminals. Rail coal volume fell by 2pc from a year earlier, while revenue dropped by 7pc to 553mn st. Total CSX profits rose to $894mn, up by 8pc compared with third quarter 2023. Revenue increased to $3.6bn, up by 1pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Spotlight content
Browse the latest thought leadership produced by our global team of experts.
Explore our fertilizer products
Key price assessments
Argus prices are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.
Related events
Argus Clean Ammonia Europe Conference
Argus Clean Ammonia Europe Conference
Argus Agritel Paris Grain Conference
Argus Agritel Paris Grain Conference
Fertilizer Latino Americano
Fertilizer Latino Americano
