Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Middle East EDC output remains low post-Iran ceasefire
Middle East EDC output remains low post-Iran ceasefire
Singapore, 23 June (Argus) — Middle East ethylene dichloride (EDC) production remains constrained heading into the third quarter despite the US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, as producers face persistent vessel congestion, high inventories, and weak vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) spot prices, market participants said. Before the US-Iran war, most Middle Eastern EDC suppliers were already running at reduced rates because of weakening chlorine netbacks into EDC and lower demand from the PVC sector. Most producers were either catering for EDC contractual supplies, or for their respective PVC production, rather than supplying the EDC spot market. Asian chlorine netbacks into EDC were assessed at -$86.30/t and -$76.51/t in January and February 2026, respectively, according to Argus data. Following the onset of the war, the closure of the strait of Hormuz made it uneconomical for domestic EDC producers to keep running since vessels could not leave the strait and domestic inventories piled up. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on deliveries of several chemical products on 9 March, while two Saudi EDC producers reduced rates heavily as they were unable to reach certain customers in south Asia. Since then, Argus suspension PVC (s-PVC) import prices into India, Vietnam and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have fallen by 35pc, 39pc, and 21pc, respectively, as of 19 June from their peaks on 20 March. May VCM monthly spot prices also saw declines of 20pc in northeast Asia and 29pc in southeast Asia, with recent indications pointing to further drops in June. This would bring both current PVC and VCM prices close to historical lows since before the US-Iran war, leading Middle Eastern EDC producers to reconsider increasing operating rates even as feedstock costs declined and the strait reopens. Most EDC producers are currently focusing on destocking efforts before ramping up production rates, but many expect that this will take time and likely determined by how quickly vessel congestion along the strait eases. Concerns from India remain surprisingly low Middle Eastern EDC supply primarily flows into India, as many PVC producers there rely on imported EDC feedstocks for their production. Total EDC imports into India in 2025 were 690,926t, with the Middle East contributing 51pc of the total, data from Global Trade Tracker (GTT) show. As a precautionary measure over the war-related uncertainty and reliability of feedstock supplies, the Indian government introduced duty waivers across different imports — including PVC — and the prioritisation of feedstock LPG output across certain sectors. But despite a potential delay in the resumption of EDC supply from the Middle East, along with other key feedstocks, Indian PVC producers are not so concerned over EDC supply security as some secured enough imports to meet more than three months of domestic demand. While current GTT data for 2026 is slightly delayed, EDC imports from western Europe into India between January and April 2026 were 57,776t — more than half of the full-year total for 2025. This could lead to a potential reintroduction of PVC import duties into India beyond 30 June to control overseas supplies into the country, with senior government officials recently investigation a potential extension to duty waivers before the ceasefire . But a decision has yet to be made on this, with market participants expecting further announcements from the government in the coming days. By Michael Vitiello India EDC imports '000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US issues Iran oil sanctions waiver
US issues Iran oil sanctions waiver
Washington, 22 June (Argus) — The US will allow unlimited sales of Iranian crude, refined and other petrochemical products until 21 August, in another concrete step toward implementing the US-Iran deal signed on 18 June. Buyers can pay in US dollars for the Iranian oil, freight services and insurance, according to the terms of a general license issued on Monday by the Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The OFAC license follows a round of direct US-Iranian talks in Switzerland on Sunday, which made "very good progress", according to US vice president JD Vance, who led the US delegation. The length of the sanctions waivers matches the 60 day period set by the US-Iran "memorandum of understanding" to complete negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, the status of the strait of Hormuz and other issues. The US-Iran interim deal allows for an extension of negotiations beyond the 60 day period, which could also result in another extension of the Iran sanctions waivers. Conversely, a breakdown in the US-Iran relations could result in the waiver being terminated ahead of the deadline. The OFAC license spells out in great detail all transactions associated with the sale, transportation and offloading of Iranian crude and products and allows shipping Iranian oil on tankers that are on the US sanctions list. It does not lift sanctions on the Iranian sellers, but waives the application of sanctions on the buyers. The license allows the provision of services for transporting Iranian oil, including "vessel management, crewing, bunkering, piloting, registration, flagging, insurance, classification and salvage". The OFAC license even allows imports of Iranian oil into the US, for subsequent trans-shipment. Before the war, most Iranian crude went to a narrow group of customers in China's independent refining industry who appeared to be unbothered by the effect of US sanctions. With waivers in place, China's state-controlled companies and buyers in India and other countries in Asia could be motivated to buy Iranian crude. For now, even lower prices in the past week have not spurred buying interest from the Chinese companies. Many buyers likely will remain wary of taking advantage of the availability of Iranian crude and products, due to the 60 day term of the sanctions waiver and the possibility that confrontation between the two countries could flare up again, resulting in the snapback of sanctions. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
London, 18 June (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast and put greater emphasis on what it sees as a continuing shift in energy-transition policy, pointing to governments and companies placing more weight on energy security, affordability and oil and gas investment. The 2026 World Oil Outlook (WOO) puts global oil demand at 124.1mn b/d in 2050, up from 122.9mn b/d in last year's report. Its 2030 forecast is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, while its 2040 projection rises to 121.7mn b/d from 120mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. The upward revision to the 2050 forecast is modest, but the policy framing is firmer than last year. Opec says the "shift in energy transition narratives" identified in the 2025 WOO has continued over the past year, with more countries seeking what it calls a "more balanced approach" that takes in energy security, availability and affordability as well as emissions reductions. The WOO says recent geopolitical tensions have prompted major energy consumers to rethink their positioning in global energy markets, although it treats current market volatility as a short-term issue rather than a direct driver of its long-term forecasts. The report also says major energy companies are "re-orienting themselves towards a focus on oil and gas", after previously presenting themselves more broadly as "energy solution providers". Opec does not provide a direct reconciliation of the higher 2050 oil demand number. But its regional tables show the increase from last year's WOO is concentrated mainly in the OECD and Africa, partly offset by a lower projection for China. OECD demand is still projected to decline over the long term, but to 38mn b/d in 2050, compared with 37.2mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. African demand is put at 9.2mn b/d, up from 8.8mn b/d, while China's 2050 forecast is lower at 18mn b/d, compared with 18.4mn b/d last year. India remains the largest single source of long-term oil demand growth, although its 2050 forecast is little changed. Opec sees Indian demand rising from 5.6mn b/d in 2025 to 13.8mn b/d in 2050, compared with a 2050 forecast of 13.7mn b/d in last year's WOO. Non-OECD demand is projected to rise by 26.9mn b/d between 2025 and 2050, while OECD demand falls by 7.9mn b/d. Last year's WOO saw non-OECD demand increasing by 27.7mn b/d and OECD demand declining by 8.5mn b/d between 2024 and 2050, so direct growth comparisons are affected by the shifted base year. The sectoral drivers are broadly unchanged. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation remain the three largest sources of incremental oil use. Opec now sees road transport demand rising by 5.7mn b/d to 2050, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.6mn b/d. Last year's WOO put the comparable increases at 5.3mn b/d, 4.2mn b/d and 4.7mn b/d, respectively, although from a 2024 rather than 2025 base. On supply, the broad outlook is little changed. Opec sees global liquids supply rising to 124.2mn b/d by 2050, compared with 123mn b/d in last year's WOO. Supply from producers outside the Opec+ alliance is seen plateauing at around 60mn b/d in the 2030s, while Opec+ producers' share of global liquids supply again rises to 52pc by 2050, from 48pc in 2025. Last year's WOO also put the group's 2050 share at 52pc. Opec puts cumulative oil-related investment needs at $17.7 trillion over 2026-50, including $14.5 trillion upstream, $1.9 trillion downstream and $1.3 trillion midstream. Last year's WOO estimated $18.2 trillion over 2025-50, including $14.9 trillion upstream, but the comparison is affected by the different forecast window and dollar basis. Opec also sees downstream balances tightening later this decade. The deficit between required and net potential refining capacity is projected to rise to more than 1.5mn b/d by 2030, as demand growth outpaces net capacity additions, particularly in Asia-Pacific. The 2026 WOO lists 4.9mn b/d of refining additions in 2026-30, compared with 5.8mn b/d in last year's outlook for 2025-30, while global refinery utilisation rises from 80.8pc to 82.7pc over 2025-30. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.25pc
Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.25pc
Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate by a quarter point to 14.25pc today in its fourth meeting of 2026, while ongoing uncertainty over the Mideast Gulf war continues to weigh on the outlook. The decision to lower the rate, announced on Wednesday, followed similar 0.25pc cuts in March and April . Domestically, economic activity appears to be recovering from the previous quarter, and the labor market shows signs of resilience, the central bank's monetary committee Copom said. Despite inflation risks continuing to be higher than usual, the committee decided to maintain its cutting trajectory, it said. In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers kept the target rate unchanged Wednesday for a fourth meeting this year while penciling in a possible rate hike by the end of the year. Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to an annual 4.72pc in May . Inflation expectations, as calculated by the bank's Focus survey, remain above target at 5.3pc for 2026 and 4.1pc for 2027. Economic growth slowed to an annual 1.8pc in the first quarter, according to official statistics agency data. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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