Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Ceasefire offers little relief to Indian plastic makers
Ceasefire offers little relief to Indian plastic makers
Mumbai, 9 April (Argus) — The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is unlikely to offer an immediate respite to Indian plastic converters who are grappling with rising feedstock prices that are eroding their production margins. Since the Iran war began, prices have increased by nearly 50pc, with no indication that they will decrease anytime soon. Indian PP raffia prices were last assessed at $1,300-1,400/t cfr India on 2 April, up by $445/t or 49pc compared with $890-920/t on February 27 before the war started. Indian low-density polyethylene prices were assessed at $1,600-1,700/t cfr India on 2 April, up by $580/t or 54pc compared with $1,060-1,080/t on February 27. Lower polymer imports from the Middle East and rising domestic prices are putting pressure on plastic converters which manufacture packaging materials among other products. And their customers, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms, are reluctant to accept the hike in packaging material costs, leaving them in a challenging situation. "A large percentage of plastic converters in India are micro, small and medium enterprises, who have been hit the worst," Amit Kumar Agarwal, the President of Indian Plastics Federation (IPF), told Argus . Even for orders that were booked before the war, suppliers are demanding surcharges amounting to hundreds of dollars per metric ton due to shipping constraints, which are adding more pressure on converters. Middle East imports hit The Middle East conflict has put at least of half of India's total polymer imports in jeopardy, as the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries supply most of the imports. For 2025, the Middle East supplied around 62pc of India's polyethylene (PE) imports, or 1.41 mn t. The region also supplied 51pc of India's polypropylene (PP) imports, or 930,000 t. The de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz has led suppliers to use Oman's East Coast ports such as Salalah and Sohar to send limited material. But overall exports from the region remain significantly reduced since the war. The market is also sceptical about whether the ceasefire will hold and for how long. Less than 24 hours after the announcement on Tuesday, the two sides are offering conflicting accounts of key terms of the ceasefire and of a potential peace agreement. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran and in neighbouring Mideast Gulf states continued in the hours after the ceasefire was announced. Even if the conflict ends, there's no certainty on product availability as several petrochemicals production units have been hit in missile and drone attacks, Dubai-based traders said. Petrochemical producers in the Middle East, including UAE's Borouge and Kuwait's Petrochemical Industries Company, faced drone and missile attacks on Sunday. Iranian attacks also caused fires in Saudi Arabia's Jubail — a key hub for petrochemicals. Supply crunch goes on In India, domestic producers have had to cut production further tightening supply. State-controlled Indian Oil, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL), HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Reliance Industries (RIL) have all cut PP output , after the Indian government asked refiners to divert propane, butene and propylene toward cooking gas production, limiting feedstock availability for petrochemicals. "We have only passed down the higher feedstock costs partially," an official with a state-owned producer said. Several producers expect prices to stay elevated in the near-term unless the feedstock prices come down. State-owned Opal and Gail also cut production, squeezing PE supplies. To alleviate the pain of high feedstock prices, the Indian government slashed import duties on petrochemicals products to zero until the end of June. But this has had little effect on offers from China, which has stepped in to fill the void left by Middle East producers, several traders said. Following the ceasefire announcement on 9 April, some China-based traders cut their offers. But others continue to offer at high levels citing market uncertainty and high Indian domestic prices. The IPF has written to the government to extend the import tax waiver for six months as the war could go on for a long time, Agarwal told Argus . The outcome of that petition is awaited. Sooner or later consumer product makers will need to pass the higher costs to the end-users. The Indian consumers will likely feel the impact of rising packaging material costs from this month with producers either hiking prices or cutting volumes, Dhairyashil Patil, president of the All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation, told Argus . By Sourasis Bose Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIA raises US NGL production, demand forecasts
EIA raises US NGL production, demand forecasts
Houston, 8 April (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 10-year outlook for average production of natural gas plant liquids (NGLs) by 14.4pc. In its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), the EIA estimated production of NGLs would average 8.85mn b/d from 2026 to 2035, up from the estimate of 7.74mn b/d for that period in its report last year . By 2050, production will reach 11.3mn b/d, EIA said, a 32.3pc hike from the agency's previous 2050 forecast. Consumption of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), which the EIA defines as ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane, natural gasoline, and refinery olefins, is projected to average 3.82mn b/d over the next 10 years, up from the 3.69mn b/d forecast in the 2025 AEO. The agency continues to expect much of this demand to come from the industrial sector, including petrochemical manufacturing. EIA forecast 3,710 trillion Btu/y of industrial-sector HGL consumption between 2026-2035, up from its 3,630 trillion Btu/y forecast for the period last year. EIA also raised its estimate for domestic propane use in the residential, commercial, and transportation sectors across the period to 727 trillion Btu/y, up from 697 trillion Btu/y as estimated in 2025. The increase was almost entirely attributable to the residential sector, which the agency predicts will consume 485 trillion Btu/y, up from its previous 456 trillion Btu/y forecast for the period. By Joseph Barbour Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Metanol enfrenta cenário de oferta apertada
Metanol enfrenta cenário de oferta apertada
Sao Paulo, 8 April (Argus) — O suprimento de metanol no Brasil está apertado, em um momento de dificuldades com frete marítimo ao Brasil e maior competição por cargas de outros mercados, incluindo Europa e Ásia. O custo do frete marítimo aumentou desde o início da guerra entre Estados Unidos-Israel contra o Irã, com escassez de navios disponíveis para o transporte. Distribuidores de metanol reportam que alguns fornecedores estão limitando os volumes disponíveis no mercado à vista, enquanto mantêm as quantidades previstas em contratos. As usinas de biodiesel estão mantendo a estratégia de aquisição de produto, que normalmente inclui um mix entre contratos e compras bimestrais para pronta-entrega. O Brasil importou aproximadamente 350.000t de metanol entre janeiro-março de 2026, conforme dados do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (Mdic), queda de mais de 10pc frente às cerca de 395.000t no mesmo período um ano atrás. Praticamente todo o volume foi originado em Trinidad e Tobago (28pc), Argentina (22pc), EUA (21pc), Chile (17pc), Venezuela (7pc) e Rússia (5pc). Outras 117.000t de metanol devem desembarcar nos portos brasileiros em abril, de acordo com a plataforma de rastreamento de navios Kpler. Se confirmado, o número representará queda de 11pc ante igual mês do ano passado. O consumo de metanol pela indústria do biodiesel subiu quase 15pc entre janeiro-fevereiro, na comparação anual, para aproximadamente 140.000t, segundo dados da Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Os dados de março ainda não estão disponíveis. Neste mesmo período de dois meses, o Brasil importou cerca de 200.000t de metanol. A indústria do biodiesel normalmente representa cerca de dois terços da demanda doméstica. O custo de reposição de estoques aumentou significativamente neste ano. Menor disponibilidade de volume e um cenário altamente incerto fez alguns vendedores segurarem ofertas no mercado spot para entrega em maio, na expectativa por preços mais elevados à frente. O indicador da Argus para o metanol alfandegado sem impostos fob Paranaguá chegou a R$2.580/t ($500/t) na última semana, frente a aproximadamente R$1.945/t em 27 de fevereiro, antes da guerra no Oriente Médio. O índice da Argus de contratos nos Estados Unidos, que inclui os preços sem desconto em contratos da Methanex e da Valenz, avançou 31pc em abril ante março, para $1.249,90/t. Usinas de biodiesel negociam descontos sobre os preços em contrato, que alcançam, em média, 54pc no Brasil. Competição internacional Vendedores também enfrentam competição crescente da Europa e da Ásia por abastecimento de metanol, resultado das mudanças nos fluxos globais após a guerra no Oriente Médio e o fechamento do estreito de Ormuz. Preços mais elevados fora das Américas estão fortalecendo o interesse por metanol produzido nos EUA, à medida que compradores internacionais buscam garantir suprimento norte-americano. Os volumes negociados no mercado spot dos EUA dobraram desde o início da guerra, no final de fevereiro, com ao menos 52.800t sendo negociadas em março-abril, em comparação a 26.400t entre janeiro-fevereiro. Foi reportado à Argus que um produtor comprou a maior parte de seu volume no mercado spot para destiná-lo à exportação. Os EUA já eram um exportador líquido de metanol, mas problemas de abastecimento no Oriente Médio fortaleceram o interesse pelo produto do país. Adicionalmente, o fechamento do estreito de Ormuz coloca até 17 milhões de t/ano de metanol em risco. Alguns distribuidores demonstram cautela quanto ao suprimento de metanol no mercado à vista do Brasil nos próximos meses, alertando para a possibilidade de redirecionamento de cargas inicialmente destinadas ao Brasil. Por Fernando Ladeira e Steven McGinn Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.
Brazil's Braskem on brink of control reset
Brazil's Braskem on brink of control reset
Sao Paulo, 8 April (Argus) — Brazilian petrochemical producer Braskem secured the EU's competition clearance on 8 April, the last regulatory obstacle to its long-anticipated change of control. The transition is no longer a matter of approvals but of execution, placing governance mechanics, creditor coordination and shareholder alignment at the center of the company's near-term agenda. The transaction will introduce a new joint control structure, transferring voting power away from its former controlling shareholder, fellow conglomerate Novonor, through a debt-backed equity conversion while preserving a significant strategic role for state-controlled oil firm Petrobras. The framework has now been accepted across the jurisdictions most relevant to Braskem's industrial footprint — Brazil, the US, Mexico and the EU — leaving the completion of documentation, share transfers and the activation of a revised shareholders agreement as the remaining steps before the new structure becomes effective. The EU nod follows Brazil's antitrust authority Cade approving without restrictions on 6 March and the transfer of Novonor's stake in Braskem to an investment fund advised by IG4 Sol, marking a significant shift in the long-running dispute over control of the petrochemical producer. IG4 Sol is part of IG4 Capital, a private equity firm specializing in distressed assets. Its proposal involves acquiring Novonor's debt from a consortium of banks — including Itau, Bradesco, Santander, Banco do Brasil and national development bank Bndes — and converting it into equity in Braskem. This debt-for-equity approach could allow IG4 to assume Braskem's control without a direct share purchase. These steps carry meaningful implications for Braskem's operational latitude. Prolonged uncertainty over control has limited the company's ability to take decisive action on capital structure, portfolio optimization and longer term investment planning. Finalizing the control transition would remove a key overhang that has constrained strategic decision making during a prolonged and punishing petrochemical downturn. Timing The timing of the control reset is delicate but potentially consequential, as Braskem begins the second quarter after an extended period of margin compression driven by global oversupply, subdued demand and elevated fixed costs. Company disclosures have consistently highlighted pressure on cash generation and leverage, even as liquidity buffers have remained intact. Against that backdrop, near term operating conditions are showing tentative signs of improvement. Seasonal demand recovery, inventory repricing and firmer product prices relative to the first quarter are expected to support sequential margin expansion in April-June. While this does not represent a structural recovery of the petrochemical cycle, it may provide temporary relief to operating cash flow at a critical juncture, reducing immediate financial stress as governance changes take hold. External macro forces are also influencing this short-term window. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have disrupted global energy flows, increased freight risk and pushed crude prices higher. For petrochemical producers, the effects are mixed. Sustained oil inflation ultimately raises feedstock costs and challenges naphtha-based economics, but initial price movements tend to favor resin producers, as selling prices adjust more rapidly than feedstock benchmarks. This dynamic has supported margins in certain chains, especially for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), both Braskem's products, despite broader instability. For Braskem, the overlap of these forces creates a narrow but meaningful corridor. On one side lies the structural necessity of financial and governance reorganization after years of shareholder instability. On the other is the possibility that short-term operating conditions may soften the adjustment, offering incremental breathing space as the new control structure is implemented. The stakes extend beyond the company. As Latin America's largest petrochemical producer, Braskem plays a central role in regional polymer supply, pricing formation and investment signaling. A completed control transition would not only reshape internal governance but could recalibrate expectations across the region's chemical markets, influencing capacity decisions, import dynamics and competitive behavior. Whether this moment marks the beginning of a broader reset or merely a stabilization phase remains uncertain. What is clear is that Braskem has moved beyond regulatory limbo and into a decisive phase where execution, market conditions and geopolitics will jointly determine its trajectory. The coming quarters will reveal whether marginal operating relief can coincide with structural change or whether deeper intervention will still be required. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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