Phosphates
Overview
The global phosphates market has witnessed increasing volatility, in response to military conflicts, political tensions and changing market dynamics. Price fluctuations have continued to buffet the market, with increasing demand from south and Southeast Asia the main regions driving consumption growth. Rising raw material prices and improved affordability have lifted prices once again.
Phosphates' usage is also not solely limited to fertilizers. Battery-material suppliers are increasingly seeking to source phosphate rock and specialty phosphates-based products to meet the rapidly rising demand for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries for electric vehicle production.
Our extensive phosphates coverage includes DAP, MAP, TSP and SSP, as well as raw materials phosphate rock and phosphoric acid, with assessments also spanning feed products MCP and DCP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the phosphates market and incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including sulphur and ammonia to provide the full market narrative.
Argus support market participants with:
- Daily and weekly phosphates price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of processed phosphate and phosphate rock prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest phosphate news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global phosphate industry.
Rise in phosphoric acid price to hit Indian producers
Rise in phosphoric acid price to hit Indian producers
London, 31 October (Argus) — Higher phosphoric acid prices for the fourth quarter will push India to rely more heavily on DAP imports and domestic production using imported phosphate rock and sulphur to build its DAP stocks. The Indian government said in a document issued in September that it will cover the losses incurred on imports over September 2024-March 2025, but it has not committed to covering the losses incurred on domestic production. Domestic DAP producers using imported phosphate rock and sulphur are achieving profits, but those using imported phosphoric acid are facing negative margins. Phosphoric acid price hike lifts cost of production Indian fertilizer importer and producer Coromandel this week agreed to a price of $1,060/t P2O5 cfr India for phosphoric acid in the fourth quarter with Jordanian supplier JPMC, which is up by $110/t P2O5 from the third-quarter phosphoric acid contract price. No other producer or importer has yet confirmed settling their respective phosphoric acid contract requirements for the fourth quarter. Argus calculates that importing phosphoric acid at $1,060/t P2O5 cfr and ammonia at $460/t cfr will bring the total cost of DAP production up to $647/t. Adding variable costs brings the total to about $684/t. This means that domestic DAP producers using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia will face negative margins of $64-65/t given the current maximum retail price (MRP) of 27,000 rupees/t ($321.12/t), nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) of Rs25,411/t — including the Rs3,500/t special additional package — and US dollar to rupee exchange. Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy — due to expire at the end of December — the loss would rise to about $106/t. Meanwhile, with the delivered price at $635/t cfr, importers of DAP would currently face a loss of about $92/t, given the current MRP, NBS and exchange rate, and without the additional government support. Domestic DAP producers importing 67 BPL (30.66pc P2O5) phosphate rock at $145/t cfr and sulphur also at $145/t cfr will make a profit of about $47/t in current conditions. Firm interest in phosphate rock and disruptions to Syrian exports have supported prices for Jordanian product. Indications for 66-68 BPL (30.2-31.1pc P2O5) phosphate rock are now in the $130s/t fob Aqaba. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Petrobras to resume construction of UFN-III
Petrobras to resume construction of UFN-III
Sao Paulo, 25 October (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled oil company Petrobras will resume construction of its nitrogen-based fertilizer unit UFN-III in Tres Lagoas, in central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state. Petrobras' board of directors approved the restart of construction today. The unit — halted in 2014 — is 81pc complete and was initially scheduled to start operating in 2015. The company expects to invest R3.5bn ($614mn) to conclude the unit, whose operations may start in 2028. Petrobras will now start a process to contract third parties to resume building works. The announcement comes after Petrobras started a binding phase for the sale of the unit in August 2022, following a potential sale of the asset that was canceled in April 2022 . The decision is in line with the company's five-year strategic plan , which foresees increasing investments in the fertilizer sector. Petrobras announced in August investments of $159mn to restart its Araucaria Nitrogenados fertilizer unit. It also signed an agreement with Norway-based global fertilizer producer Yara to consider a potential partnership in Brazil's fertilizer sector and another agreement with Brazil's agriculture research center Embrapa to study the development of renewable feedstock for lower-carbon products such as fertilizers and biofuels. By Renata Cardarelli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nutrien restarts operations at White Springs
Nutrien restarts operations at White Springs
Houston, 21 October (Argus) — Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien today confirmed the restart of the company's White Springs, Florida, phosphate fertilizer facility, which was shut last month by Hurricane Helene. Production at the plant is ramping up, the company said without responding to a question on how much production was lost during the outage. The plant was shut by storm-induced power outages as Hurricane Helene made landfall on 26 September, so the plant was off line for at least three weeks. The plant produced 1.27mn t of phosphate rock in 2023, according to Nutrien's annual report, so three weeks of production would equate to roughly 800,000t of phosphate rock. Helene also shut operations at rival fertilizer producer Mosaic's phosphate facility in Riverview, Florida , which is expected to return to normal operations later this week. By Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
CSX forecasts softer 4Q rail demand
Washington, 17 October (Argus) — Eastern US railroad said it expects that fourth quarter commodity market conditions will be mixed, limiting some freight demand. "Going into the fourth quarter, near-term conditions look modestly more challenging," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said on Wednesday. But the railroad expects "modest volume growth", supported by a few segments including chemicals and agriculture. But lower locomotive fuel prices and the impact of international coking coal prices, which are linked to export rail contracts, could drive a decrease in total revenue during the fourth quarter. He estimated that impact at roughly $200mn compared with last year's fourth quarter revenue of $3.68bn. CSX expects to see a carryover of year-over-year momentum in chemicals, agriculture and food, forest products and minerals, while metals and automotive will continue to be challenged. Demand for metals shipments is predicted to soften through the end of the year. Interest in shipments, particularly steel, is soft because of "sluggish demand, ample supply and low commodity prices", chief commercial officer Kevin Boone said. A weaker-than-anticipated automotive market contributed to the drop in metals demand. Consumer demand for automotive products has been reduced by high retail prices and interest rates, which has led to increased dealer inventories and slower production, Boone said. But CSX expects that an "interest rate easing cycle will help these markets normalize," Boone said. Metals and equipment volume fell in the second quarter, primarily because of lower steel and scrap shipments. Shipments of metals and equipment fell by 9pc to about 64,000 carloads compared with the same three months in 2023. Revenue dropped to $208mn, down by 8pc from a year earlier. Automotive volume dropped in the second quarter because of lower North American vehicle production, CSX said. Automotive traffic fell to 301,000 railcars loaded, down by 2pc from the third quarter 2023. Automotive revenue dropped to $98mn, down by 3pc compared with a year earlier. The outlook for fertilizer shipments is mixed following the third quarter as a decline in long-haul phosphates shipments persisted. Volume was negative, but the railroad was able to haul some profitable spot shipments. Shipments of fertilizer fell to 45,000 carloads in the third quarter, down by 4pc from a year earlier. Fertilizer revenue dropped to $118mn, down by 5pc from a year earlier. CSX expects growth in some market segments. Chemicals freight demand is expected to continue growing following "consistent, broad strength across plastics, industrial chemicals, LPGs, and waste. That demand helped boost chemicals volume by 9pc compared with a year earlier. Chemicals revenue rose to $727mn in the second quarter, up by 13pc compared with a year earlier. Agricultural and food products shipping demand is expected to continue growing, led by demand for grain and feed ingredients from the Midwest for supplies. That follows a third quarter when higher ethanol shipments, as well as increased overall volume helped raise volume by 9pc from the third quarter of 2023. Revenue from shipping agricultural and food products rose to $416mn, up by 11pc from a year earlier. CSX expects intermodal growth to continue with the trucking market falling, which would help drive more container freight to rail. Intermodal shipments are goods shipped in containers and trailers between different modes of transportation. The 1-3 October strike by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) did impact intermodal traffic, but the railroad was pleased with the "relatively quick short-term solution", Boone said. International intermodal volume during the third quarter rose because of higher east-coast port traffic. Domestic volume was mostly flat. Overall intermodal volume during the quarter increased by 3pc compared with a year earlier. But lower revenue per container helped reduce total intermodal revenue by 2pc to $509mn. CSX does not expect a major shift in coal volume through the end of the year as coal markets seem relatively stable and utility stockpiles are sufficient, Boone said. Rising natural gas prices are also unlikely to stimulate a "near-term step-up in volumes". Export coal demand has been consistent lately, particularly from buyers in Asia. But revenue per railcar for export coal could make a modest single digit drop, as contracts are tied to international coal benchmarks and prices fell earlier this year. Expport coal voume rose to 11.1mn short tons (10.1mn metric tonnes) in the second quarter on higher demand for thermal and coking coal. But domestic coal deliveries fell to 10.2mn st, down by 12pc from a year earlier, on lower deliveries to power plants and lake and river terminals. Rail coal volume fell by 2pc from a year earlier, while revenue dropped by 7pc to 553mn st. Total CSX profits rose to $894mn, up by 8pc compared with third quarter 2023. Revenue increased to $3.6bn, up by 1pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights
The complimentary Argus Fertilizer Market Highlights package includes:
• Bi-weekly Fertilizer Newsletter
• Monthly Market Update Video
• Bi-monthly Fertilizer Focus Magazine
Spotlight content
Browse the latest thought leadership produced by our global team of experts.
Explore our phosphate products
Region and country focused market intelligence
Key price assessments
Argus prices are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.