Venezuela talks resume in wake of more arrests

: Crude oil, Oil products
19/07/15

Venezuela's government and opposition are resuming negotiations in Barbados today, but both sides are resisting proposed concessions that would facilitate elections next April.

The opposition has pledged to revive the battered national oil industry once President Nicolas Maduro is removed from power. But even if a deal can be reached to hold new elections, there is no agreement on Maduro's standing before the poll, and the opposition faces the risk that a successor to Maduro would win.

Information minister Jorge Rodriguez said on arriving in Barbados that Maduro is "committed to a permanent dialogue for peace" and urged the political opposition led by Juan Guaido to disavow "all unconstitutional actions" aimed at forcing a regime change.

Guaido, the National Assembly president who is recognized by over 50 mainly western states as Venezuela's interim president, said in Trujillo state yesterday that the talks in Barbados "are not a dialogue, but rather a mediation by the government of Norway."

National Assembly second vice president Stalin Gonzalez, a member of Guaido's delegation in Barbados, said the goal of the Oslo-brokered talks is to "achieve a pact in coming days to end the suffering of Venezuelans."

Guaido's delegation also includes Gerardo Blyde, the former mayor of Baruta municipality in Caracas, and former transport and communications minister Fernando Martinez Mottola who served under late president Carlos Andres Perez in 1992-93.

Maduro's delegation to Barbados includes information minister Rodriguez, foreign minister Jorge Arreaza and Miranda state governor Hector Rodriguez, who is seen as the likely candidate of the ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV) if an agreement is reached to hold new presidential elections by April 2020.

The primary obstacle to an agreement appears to be Maduro's refusal to leave the presidency voluntarily ahead of new elections in nine months, government and opposition officials say.

For its part, the opposition is rejecting a government proposal for Guaido to relinquish his self-declared interim presidency and recuse himself from running for president in next year's elections, a Guaido aide close to the talks in Barbados said.

Diosdado Cabello, the second most powerful figure in Maduro's government and head of the controversial National Constituent Assembly (ANC), maintained early today that Maduro will not accept any deal requiring his resignation ahead of elections because it would amount to "surrendering the presidency to which he was elected constitutionally."

The crisis erupted in early January after Maduro was sworn in for another six-year term based on a May 2018 election that was widely deemed abroad as fraudulent. Invoking the constitution, Guaido declared his interim presidency on 23 January, asserting that Maduro's presidency was illegitimate.

The new round of talks are resuming amid political tensions triggered by the arrests of three individuals, including two of Guaido's bodyguards, who are charged with trying to sell up to five Russian-made AK-103 assault weapons allegedly stolen from the army.

The 12 July arrests by government security forces were first disclosed by Rodriguez. Defense minister general Vladimir Padrino, whom Maduro ratified in his post on 5 July, issued a statement separately yesterday rejecting the political opposition's alleged attempt to sell the arms.

Guaido dismissed the allegations by Rodriguez and Padrino as phony. The opposition security officials, identified as Erick Sanchez and Jason Parisi, were "kidnapped" by Maduro's intelligence services who "planted weapons" to justify their illegal arrests the same way that the regime planted weapons on his chief of staff Roberto Marrero when he was arrested illegally on 21 March, Guaido said.

The US administration, which recognizes Guaido as Venezuela's interim leader, says Maduro's departure should be a pre-condition for new elections. "Guaido and his team are not negotiating in Barbados because they trust the regime – they are negotiating to end the regime," State Department special Venezuelan envoy Elliott Abrams said on 12 July.

Organization of American States (OAS) secretary general Luis Almagro, who spoke alongside Abrams to highlight a recent UN report on human rights violations by the Maduro government, questioned the need for talks and called on the US not to relax its sanctions regime.

"If the US lets up pressure, this process will conclude in the same way that the previous four or five negotiations that have taken place since 2014," Almagro said.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/03/24

EU readies tweak for CO2 car standards

Brussels, 24 March (Argus) — The European Commission is expected to approve this week a legal proposal which would increase flexibility for compliance with CO2 standards for cars and vans. The commission is expected to adopt, by written procedure, a legal proposal on 25 March, targeting additional flexibilities around penalties for cars and vans to meet CO2 emissions performance standards. The proposal is expected to enable compliance with CO2 targets to be calculated over a three-year period , rather than for single years. EU leaders last week called for the legal proposal to be put forward "without delay". EU leaders have also called on the commission to "take forward the review" foreseen in the CO2 for cars regulation. Industry has urged the EU to allow for low carbon and zero emission fuels to be accounted for under the CO2 standards. Separately, further delay to the EU's official emissions reduction goal for 2040 appears likely. The commission does not currently have a "concrete date" to give on the GHG proposal for 2040 but it "does not seem" to be scheduled for presentation this week. The official work program for the commission had listed the 2040 GHG target, an update to the European Climate Law, in the first quarter of 2025. The delay to the EU's 2040 GHG proposal further impacts presentation of an updated EU climate plan — known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC) — which will cover the timeframe up to 2035. The commission said several parties have already missed the 10 February deadline for submission of updated NDCs to UN climate body the UNFCCC. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Estonian climate ministry to push for EU ETS 2 repeal

25/03/24

Estonian climate ministry to push for EU ETS 2 repeal

London, 24 March (Argus) — Estonia's parliament has granted the country's climate ministry a mandate to push for the repeal or postponement of the EU's second emissions trading system (ETS 2) covering road transport and buildings, scheduled to launch in 2027. The Estonian parliament's EU affairs committee granted the ministry a mandate to begin consultations with the European Commission and EU member states on repealing the EU ETS 2 directive, because of the administrative burden and uncertainty posed by transposing the measure. If Estonia fails to garner sufficient support, it will join existing proposals by the Czech Republic and Poland to postpone the introduction of the new system for two years. This additional time could be used to find a way to limit the burden of imposing the measure, the committee said. These proposals would require a qualified majority of EU member states to pass. If not adopted, Estonia's climate ministry would instead start negotiations to postpone the launch of the system to 2028 or exclude road transport from its scope. The committee approved the mandate — which followed positions submitted by the government and subsequent amendments and opinions by the parliament's environment and economic affairs committees — "after a long and heated political debate", its chairman Peeter Tali said. The commission last year adopted a supply cap of 1.036bn carbon allowances in 2027 for the new system, which will cover upstream emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS. For the first three years of operation, the system will have a price cap of €45/t of CO2 equivalent, adjusted for inflation, which if surpassed for a period of two months would trigger the release of 20mn allowances from its market stability reserve. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German Rhine oil product barge demand rises sharply

25/03/24

German Rhine oil product barge demand rises sharply

Hamburg, 24 March (Argus) — The closure of Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery and a power unit failure at the Miro refinery have led to increased demand for oil products barges on the Rhine this week, although low water levels significantly drove freight costs up. Heating oil prices in the Cologne area have risen since mid-March, with Shell looking to supply the area through barge imports since it has shut down crude processing at Wesseling. Meanwhile, buyers are increasingly switching to alternative loading points in neighboring regions, which has raised product sales in a few tank farms along the Rhine and Main rivers. Suppliers now need more barges for resupply, shipping operators said. Demand for barges has also increased from the 310,000 b/d Miro refinery in Karlsruhe after one of the power plants failed on 18 March, which affected production temporarily. Market participants shipped more Naphtha by barge toward Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) or other inland locations. Demand for oil product deliveries to the refinery has also increased. The combination of low water levels on the Rhine and increased demand for barges towards the end of week ending 23 March have pushed freight rates up, particularly on the Main and upper Rhine. The water level at Kaub over the weekend fell to 1.10 m, forcing loading capacity to be reduced by more than half. More barges are needed to transport the same amount of product, and shippers expect freight rates to rise further this week. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Red Sea diversions resume, but few vessels affected

25/03/24

Red Sea diversions resume, but few vessels affected

London, 24 March (Argus) — Some shipping is avoiding the Red Sea again after Yemen-based Houthi forces ended a brief ceasefire, but few returned to the route in the first place. Already one clean products tanker that loaded gasoil in the Mideast Gulf in the second week of March has diverted away from the Red Sea route, vessel tracking data show. The Sti Guard, which loaded 530,000 bl of gasoil from Qatar's Ras Laffan plant on 10 March, rerouted on 14-15 March to avoid the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb strait. The ship is now taking the longer voyage around South Africa to discharge in northwest Europe in the second half of April. The diversion comes after the Houthis announced earlier this month that they were restarting attacks on commercial shipping in retaliation for Israel preventing humanitarian aid deliveries from reaching Gaza. The US reacted to the announcement by launching a series of airstrikes targeting Houthi forces in Yemen from 15 March. The Houthis claim to have attacked US military ships in response. Yet the swift increase in the threat level for ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Somalia is likely to have far less impact on oil trade than when the Houthis first began attacking commercial shipping in late 2023. Much of the shipping that avoided sailing past Yemen last year did not return when the Houthis declared their ceasefire in January. Around 275,000 b/d of clean products sailed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait in February towards the Suez Canal, up from 90,000 b/d in January, after the Houthis announced a reduction in vessel attacks. But this was still substantially below the 1mn-1.2mn b/d that was moving on that route before the Houthi strikes began. On the whole, the return to the Red Sea has been slow, as the cost of additional insurance can be enough to wipe out any savings made from the shorter journey, meaning that there are only a few vessels that could divert back around the Cape of Good Hope. Cape fears Taking the Bab el-Mandeb/Suez Canal route cuts out 16 days of voyage time from the Saudi port of Ras Tanura to Rotterdam. But the financial benefits are less clear-cut. Shippers would save $700,000 in vessel hire and fuel costs compared with the longer Cape of Good Hope route. But transiting the Suez Canal requires a $525,000 fee. And shippers also have to pay an extra war risk insurance premium of around $420,000 — 0.4pc of the hull and machinery value of the tanker — to go past Yemen and run the Houthi gauntlet. Even with a 50pc no-claims discount on this war risk premium, the transit and extra insurance fees still wipe out any savings made on the shorter route. At the same time, the economics of shipping diesel from Asian refineries to Europe are becoming less favourable. Singapore 10ppm gasoil swaps have climbed to trade $23/t below Ice Rotterdam gasoil futures from discounts of $30-35/t in late February (see graph). The limited financial profit could mean that charterers will not be anxious to return to using the Suez Canal and those that have done may quickly gravitate back to taking the longer way around southern Africa without suffering any particular financial impact. Some shippers are still happy to take the shorter route, despite the heightened threat of attack. At least two clean products tankers, the Al Dasma and Sea Star, remain on track to transit the Bab el-Mandeb strait. And tankers carrying Urals crude from Russia's European ports to India are likely to continue to move through the Red Sea. Of the 53 tankers currently transporting Urals, just one is going around South Africa, Kpler data show. It is possible some vessels which recently loaded Urals in the Baltic and Black Sea could still take the cape route. By John Ollett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Electricity drove surge in energy demand in 2024: IEA

25/03/24

Electricity drove surge in energy demand in 2024: IEA

London, 24 March (Argus) — Electricity demand drove a jump in overall global energy consumption growth in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, energy watchdog the IEA said today. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 — higher than the average annual demand increase of 1.3pc between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-base agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption rose by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures that led to increased cooling demand, growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and from data centres and artificial intelligence, the IEA said. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", it said. New renewable power capacity installations reached around 700GW in 2024 — a new high — while renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 40pc of total generation in 2024, it said. Global gas demand rose by 2.7pc in 2024, with an increase in "fast growing Asian markets", the IEA said. It noted growth of more than 7pc and 10pc in China and India, respectively. But "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the organisation said. Oil demand rose by 0.8pc — compared with 1.9pc in 2023 — and oil's share of total energy demand fell below 30pc last year "for the first time ever". A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA said. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, half the pace seen in 2023. "Intense heatwaves" in China and India "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs, the IEA found. Renewables limit rise in emissions The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and on demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand", the IEA said. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher in 2024 on the year, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average, it said. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA said. Energy-related CO2 emissions still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth, it said. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the IEA said. Emerging and developing economies accounted for more than 80pc of the increase in global energy demand last year, it said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more