German manufacturing reaches nadir but starts recovery
German industrial production in April fell to its lowest in recent years because of the Covid-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it, but the economy has started its recovery, the country's economy ministry said.
Manufacturing output had already dropped in March as Germany introduced social distancing measures and industrial users turned down production. But the full effects of these measures were not felt until April, the ministry said.
April's seasonally and working-day adjusted industrial output fell by a further 22.1pc from March and was equivalent to only about 70pc of that in April 2015. The month-on-month decrease was far steeper than March's 11pc decrease from February.
The drop in industrial production was led by lower output from the motor vehicles industry, the economy ministry said. Production from the sector largely ceased in April, the ministry said (see manufacturing demand graph).
Capital goods output collapse continues
A sharp drop in the output of capital goods led the decrease in April, similar to March, as consumer and intermediate goods production also continued their fall.
Output of capital goods plunged by 35.3pc on the month, outpacing sharp drops in production of consumer and intermediate goods of 13.8pc and 8.7pc, respectively. Capital goods output had already fallen by 15.6pc on the month in March and was just above half of the April 2015 production in the segment (see decline by sector graph).
Seasonally and working-day adjusted new factory orders also nose-dived, falling by 25.8pc on the month. Orders from domestic and foreign markets were down for all sectors.
But the slump was particularly steep for capital and intermediate goods, at 30.6pc and 22.7pc, respectively. The decline in orders for capital goods was driven by a sharp drop in demand from eurozone markets other than Germany, but orders from domestic and non-eurozone foreign markets also tumbled.
The drop in new orders for consumer goods was more modest, at 11.4pc, but accelerated from a month-on-month decrease of just 1.8pc in March.
German gas and power demand slid as the country introduced social distancing measures and industrial users turned down production. Temperature-adjusted gas deliveries directly to industry, which includes the power sector, and to local distribution networks, which mainly connect households and small businesses, fell sharply from mid-March.
Industrial demand slipped to 1.38 TWh/d in April from 1.47 TWh/d in the past three years. And gas sent to local networks fell to 908 GWh/d from 966 GWh/d (see April demand graph). Gas use fell even as the weather was cooler. Overnight temperatures in Hamburg, Berlin, Munich and Cologne slipped to an average of 3.3°C from 4.4°C over the month in the past three years.
Recovery begins
The low point of Germany's industrial recession has likely passed, the ministry said.
Pandemic restrictions that had remained in effect from the second half of March and through April have been gradually loosened, the ministry said. Retail shops of all sizes have been allowed to reopen and schools have restarted.
And the resumption of production from the automotive sector is likely to support Germany's economic recovery, the ministry said. German vehicle manufacturers, including Volkswagen and Daimler and Man Truck and Bus, restarted production in late April and have ramped up activity since then.
Overall temperature-adjusted demand has climbed in recent weeks relative to most recent years, boosting outright consumption. And the decline in industrial demand has been offset largely by strong gas burn from Germany's power sector in recent weeks.
Industrial demand edged up above 1.32 TWh/d on 1 May-6 June from just under 1.32 TWh/d in the past three years. And gas deliveries to local networks rose to 632 GWh/d from 531 GWh/d (see May-June demand graph).
The increase was likely driven by stronger heating demand, as overnight temperatures in the same four German cities fell to an average of 6.3°C from almost 9°C.
Still, a sustained, if slow, economic recovery could continue to lift temperature-adjusted demand in the coming months.
The federal government passed a €130bn stimulus plan earlier this month that introduces a number of measures designed to boost economic activity — including a temporary reduction in value-added tax (VAT), a cap on consumer electricity costs, financial relief for municipalities and a national hydrogen strategy — that will take effect from 1 July.
Berlin will also lift its travel warning for EU and other European countries by 15 June.
Related news posts
US M&A deals dip after record 1Q: Enverus
US M&A deals dip after record 1Q: Enverus
New York, 26 April (Argus) — US oil and gas sector mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are likely to slow for the rest of the year following a record $51bn in deals in the first quarter, consultancy Enverus says. Following an unprecedented $192bn of upstream deals last year, the Permian shale basin continued to dominate first-quarter M&A as firms competed for the remaining high-quality inventory on offer. Acquisitions were led by Diamondback Energy's $26bn takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources. Other private operators, such as Mewbourne Oil and Fasken Oil & Ranch, would be highly sought after if they decided to put themselves up for sale, Enverus says. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Start-ups to help Total keep output stable in 2Q
Start-ups to help Total keep output stable in 2Q
London, 26 April (Argus) — TotalEnergies said it expects its oil and gas production to hold broadly steady in the second quarter as planned maintenance is partially offset by rising output from new projects in Brazil and Denmark. The company expects to average 2.4mn-2.45mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in April-June, compared with 2.46mn boe/d in the previous three months and 2.47mn boe/d in the second quarter of 2023. Production is being supported by the restart of gas output from the redeveloped Tyra hub in Denmark late last month and the start of the 180,000 b/d second development phase of the Mero oil field on the Libra block in Brazil's Santos Basin at the beginning of the year. TotalEnergies first-quarter output was flat compared with the previous three months but 2pc lower than a year earlier as a result of Canadian oil sands divestments. The company reported a robust set of first-quarter results today, broadly in line with analysts' expectations. Profit for the first three months of 2024 was $5.7bn, compared to $5.6bn in the same period last year. Adjusted profit — which takes into account inventory valuation effects and special items — came in at $5.1bn, down by 22pc on the year but slightly ahead of the consensus of analysts' estimates of $5bn. Adjusted operating profit from the firm's Exploration & Production business was down by 4pc year-on-year at $2.55bn, driven in part by lower natural gas prices. The Canadian oil sands asset sales weighed on the segment's production but this was partly compensated by start-ups. As well as Mero 2, the Akpo West oil project in Nigeria started production during the first quarter. TotalEnergies' Integrated LNG segment saw a 41pc year-on-year decline in its adjusted operating profit to $1.22bn in January-March. The company said this reflects lower LNG prices and sales. But while its LNG sales for the quarter fell by 3pc in year-on-year terms, its LNG production was greater by 6pc. TotalEnergies achieved an average $78.9/bl for its liquids sales in the first quarter, an improvement on $73.4/bl a year earlier. But the average price achieved for its gas sales was 43pc lower on the year at $5.11/mn Btu. In the downstream, the company's Refining & Chemicals segment's first-quarter adjusted operating profit was $962mn in January-March, down by 41pc on the year but 52pc higher than the preceding quarter. TotalEnergies attributes the quarter-on-quarter rise to higher refining margins and a rise in refinery throughput . For the second quarter, it expects refinery utilisation rates to be above 85pc, compared with 79pc in the first quarter, boosted by the restart of 219,000 b/d Donges refinery in France. Total's Integrated Power segment continued to improve, registering a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year increased of 16pc and 65pc respectively in its adjusted operating profit to €611mn. Net power production increased 14pc year-on-year to 9.6 TWh, while the company's portfolio of installed power generation capacity grew 54pc to 19.5GW. Total's cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was down by 15pc on a year earlier at $8.2bn in the first quarter. The company has decided to raise its dividend for 2024 by 7pc to €0.79/share and plans a $2bn programme of share buybacks for the second quarter. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japanese gas utilities to sell more city gas in 2024-25
Japanese gas utilities to sell more city gas in 2024-25
Osaka, 26 April (Argus) — Japanese gas utilities are expecting city gas demand from their customers to rebound in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year, after warmer than normal weather reduced the use of the heating fuel in 2023-24. Japan's largest gas retailer by sales Tokyo Gas forecast on 25 April that its city gas sales will increase to 11.422bn m³ for 2024-25, up by 1.1pc from a year earlier. Sales to the household sector are predicted to grow by 3.4pc to 2.8bn m³, after unusually warm weather during the summer and winter of 2023-24. Supplies to the industry and commercial users are also anticipated to edge up by 0.3pc to 8.6bn m³ during the period. The optimistic outlook came after a 10.1pc year-on-year fall in city gas sales for 2023-24. Tokyo Gas sold around 2.7bn m³ of city gas, down by 2.8pc from a year earlier, to the household sector to meet weaker weather-driven demand. Sales to the industry sector plunged by 20.1pc to 4.7bn m³ because of slower operations at their customers, while wholesale sales dropped by 3.2pc to 1.56bn m³. The falls more than offset a 2.3pc rise to 2.3bn m³ in the commercial sector where hotter than normal summer weather boosted city gas demand for cooling purposes. Tokyo Gas forecast temperatures in its service area to average 16.4°C in 2024-25, down from the previous year's 17.5°C. Fellow gas retailer Toho Gas forecast its city gas sales to increase by 1.2pc from the previous year to 3.4bn m³ in 2024-25, with supplies to residential users rising by 5.6pc to 595mn m³ and sales to the industry and commercial sectors edging up by 0.3pc to 2.8bn m³. The company sold 3.37bn m³ of city gas in 2023-24, down by 2.4pc from a year earlier, pressured by the warmer weather. City gas sales by Saibu Gas are expected to rise by 2.3pc from a year earlier to 940mn m³ in 2024-25. The company expanded sales by 3pc to 919mn m³ in 2023-24. Possible increased city gas sales in 2024-25 would increase demand for its main feedstock of LNG. But the 2024-25 sales forecast by Tokyo Gas and Toho Gas would remain lower compared with their 2022-23 sales. Japan's city gas production in 2022-23 totalled 35bn m³, which required 25.5mn t of LNG, according to trade and industry ministry data. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
Caracas, 25 April (Argus) — A Canadian firm plans to revive two onshore oil blocks in Venezuela, but the conditional deals signed with struggling state-owned PdV come just as the US is reinstating broad sanctions on the South American country. LNG Energy Group's Venezuela unit agreed two deals with PdV to boost output in five fields in the Nipa-Nardo-Niebla and Budare-Elotes blocks, which produce about 3,000 b/d of light- to medium-grade crude, the company said on Wednesday. The Canadian company, which operates in neighboring Colombia, would receive 50-56pc of production of the blocks. Venezuela's oil ministry declined to comment. But finalizing the contracts depends on providing required investment to develop the fields within 120 days of the contract signing on 17 April, LNG Energy said. And the signing came on the same day as the US reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela and gave most companies until 31 May to wind down business. LNG Energy Group said it intends to comply with existing and upcoming US sanctions, noting that the conditional contracts were executed within the terms of the temporary lifting of sanctions — general license 44 — but it will abide by the new license 44A. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela prohibits new investment in the country's energy sector, at the threat of US criminal and economic penalties. "The company will assess in the coming days the applicability of license 44A to its intended operations in Venezuela and determine the most appropriate course of action," LNG Energy said. "The company intends to operate in full compliance with the applicable sanctions regimes." The two blocks are in the adjacent Anzoategui and Monagas states, part of the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt. Most of Venezuela's output is medium- to heavy-grade crude. Both PdV and Chevron have drilling rigs working in those two states, in separate workover and drilling campaigns. Venezuela is now producing above 800,000 b/d, after the US allowed Chevron to increase production and investment under separate waivers. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more