Turkey ferrous: Price flat, Chinese steel prices up

: Metals
21/06/01

The Turkish scrap import price was flat on Tuesday as mills found it difficult to pressure suppliers' price targets downwards after Chinese domestic steel prices rose today and yesterday.

The Argus daily HMS 1/2 80:20 cfr Turkey steel scrap assessment was flat at $499.80/t cfr.

A Marmara mill and a Baltic supplier were heard to end negotiations without any deal after discussing a trade at around $497-500/t cfr Turkey for premium HMS 1/2 80:20 for end of July shipment at the end of last week.

Turkish mills gave bid indications today as low as $470-480/t cfr Turkey for premium HMS 1/2 80:20 but some will be looking to take advantage of being slightly behind on purchasing after selling at around $750/t fob for rebar in the past month. Those mills still need July shipment cargoes but Turkey has bought over half of its requirements for July already which is why they have been able to afford to sit out of negotiations during the past few business days. Some market participants expect these mills could continue to hold back from the market this week.

But the rise in Chinese domestic steel prices this week has eliminated a lot of scrap sellers' concerns over a sustained decline that were present at the end of last week, and CIS billet suppliers and traders have also shown a lot firmer indications this week after Tangshan billet prices increased significantly.

Tangshan mills' aggressive billet price increase over the weekend, its tight supply, and talk that the city would loosen restrictions were the main supporting pillars for Chinese steel sentiment. Tangshan is likely to ease steel production restrictions in June for mills that have completed upgrades of ultra-low emissions, market participants said yesterday. That increased sintering outlook boosted iron ore, which fed back positive sentiment to steel.. Market sentiment was still strong today with October rebar futures rising by 1.95pc to Yn5,128/t and HRC futures increasing by 0.78pc to Yn5,437/t.

Argus' ICX 62pc iron ore index has risen $19.90/dmt over the past two days to $209.30/dmt cfr Qingdao.

China's steel PMI increased by 0.7 points to 46.1 in May with the steel production sub-index jumping by 4.4 points to 51.4 from April.

But China's central bank lifted required reserve ratios for foreign currencies by 2 percentage points from 5pc to 7pc from 15 June, a move considered bearish for commodities by market participants and indicative that messages from the world's largest steelmaking country will continue to be mixed in the near term.

Turkish mills may have to sacrifice their recent high scrap-domestic rebar margins if scrap prices remain at today's levels or move higher. A Marmara mill and an Izmir mill sold at $705/t and $700/t ex-works excluding VAT today, respectively. Traders are heard to be low on stocks and there is no indication that mills will sell below $700/t ex-works in any large volume.

Wide export rebar margins to scrap look likely to stay intact as mills stated prices would remain at a minimum $745-750/t fob in the face of Chinese activity this week. Chinese rebar export prices floored at $900/t fob on theoretical weight basis last week. There was also a strong rumour in Turkey today that at least some Chinese steel products will be subject to a 10pc export duty come 1 July.

On lower short-sea price indications, the Argus daily A3 cif Marmara steel scrap assessment decreased $2.50/t to $470/t.

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25/12/26

Viewpoint: EU curbs darken India’s Mn alloy outlook

Mumbai, 26 December (Argus) — India's manganese alloy exporters are heading into a difficult 2026 as new quotas and carbon costs sharply curtail access to their largest overseas market, Europe. Safeguard limits imposed by the European Union , alongside the full rollout of the bloc's carbon border levy, are set to halve India's potential shipments to Europe, exacerbating domestic oversupply, weighing on prices and squeezing margins — particularly for smaller smelters with few alternative outlets. Europe has capped India's ferro-alloy imports for 2026 at 126,800t of silico-manganese with price threshold of €1,392/t. While 69,900t of ferro-manganese with threshold of €1,316/t. These quotas cut India's potential shipments to the region by almost half. Europe typically accounts for about 40pc of India's ferro-alloy exports, leaving producers with few alternatives. India exported 1.67mn t of manganese alloys in the year to October 2025 and 1.83mn t in 2024, customs data show. Of these volumes, 438,091t in 2025 and 461,963t in 2024 went to Europe. The challenge now is what to do with the roughly 300,000-400,000t that may not be able to enter Europe because of the quota cap, exporters said. Participants believe the excess tonnages could trigger production cuts, lower margins and financial strain, particularly for smaller smelters, as no other market can absorb the excess material. Traders also expect shipment schedules to become more uncertain. Some exporters may delay cargoes if they exceed quarterly quota limits, pushing arrivals into the next period to remain within duty-free limits. This could create instability in early 2026, resulting in irregular supply flows and an unclear market direction, market participants said. Exports exceeding the annual quota can enter duty-free only if priced above certain minimum thresholds. Many European buyers are unwilling to accept these prices. This limits the chance of selling excess volumes into Europe and is already forcing producers to redirect material to the domestic market or smaller foreign destinations. Export prices have already declined. Indian 60pc silico-manganese prices have fallen to $780-800/t fob in December end, down from $840-860/t fob before the safeguard announcement. The 65pc alloy price fell to $895-910/t, compared with $930-940/t fob at August starting. Traders expect another 5-10pc drop early next year as more unsold material hits the market. Smaller smelters remain the most vulnerable in this environment. Many rely heavily on export revenues and may be forced to cut output or suspend operations if oversupply intensifies. Larger producers may try to push volumes into Asia, the Middle East and Africa, but these regions cannot replace Europe's demand. Competition is increasing and pushing prices down further because more Indian suppliers target these markets. Another challenge in 2026 will be the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which becomes fully effective in January. Under the CBAM, European importers must pay charges based on the carbon emissions of the products they buy. This CBAM now covers alloys such as ferro-manganese and ferro-chrome under its transitional phase, requiring importers to report embedded emissions. From January 2026, these imports will incur CBAM certificate costs, adding roughly 5–10pc to landed prices based on default carbon intensity values. For say, if ferro-manganese has a default carbon intensity of about 2.07 tCO₂ per tonne, and EU carbon prices are around €80/tCO₂, the extra cost would be roughly €165/t. This will make Indian manganese alloys more expensive unless producers invest in low-emission technology — an upgrade many small and mid-sized smelters cannot afford. A few European buyers are already reviewing long-term contracts with Indian suppliers because of the added carbon-related costs. Market participants expect the first half of 2026 to be slow and uncertain. The industry will need to adapt quickly by exploring new markets, alternative alloy grades and cost-control measures to remain viable, market participants said. Absent meaningful production cuts or new demand centres, India's manganese alloy market risks entering 2026 with weaker prices, higher inventories and limited export visibility. By Deepika Singh Volumes of tariff-rate quotas and price threshold for India Quantity in tonnes Product type HSN Code Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Price threshold (Euro/tonnes) 18.11.2025 to 17.2.2026 18.2.2026 to 17.5.2026 18.5.2026 to 17.8.2026 18.8.2026 to 17.11.2026 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 18.2.2027 to 17.5.2027 18.5.2027 to 17.8.2027 18.8.2027 to 17.11.2027 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 18.2.2028 to 17.5.2028 18.5.2028 to 17.8.2028 18.8.2028 to 17.11.2028 Ferro-manganese 7202 11, 7202 19 17,625.79 17,051.04 17,625.79 17,625.79 17,643.42 17,068.09 17,643.42 17,643.42 17,612.81 17,229.92 17,612.81 17,612.81 1,316 Silico-manganese 7202 30 31,958.61 30,916.48 31,958.61 31,958.61 31,990.57 30,947.57 31,990.57 31,990.57 31,935.07 31,240.83 31,935.07 31,935.07 1,392 Source: EU Commission Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US steel tariffs cause scrap supply glut

25/12/24

Viewpoint: US steel tariffs cause scrap supply glut

Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — North American ferrous scrap dealers and exporters will likely continue flooding the US market in 2026 because the tariff-protected US steel industry is on track to outcompete international markets for scrap. The magnetic pull of the US steel market this year attracted greater volumes of ferrous scrap deliveries from domestic and international shippers alike, in a trend that could keep bolstering US scrap supply and weighing on prices in 2026. "The tariffs are protecting US steel and aluminum industries and therefore domestic demand for scrap," said Stephen Mikkelsen, chief executive of global metals recycler Sims Metal during an August earnings call. "This has resulted in premiums often emerging for domestic scrap sales in the US." President Donald Trump's 50pc tariffs on imported steel have helped ramp up US steel mills' operating rates. The import tax has also guarded the US market from an oversupply of Chinese steel in the global marketplace. That dynamic has encouraged dealers to sell ferrous scrap — which does not face a tariff — increasingly to US steel mills rather than the seaborne market. "We see this continuing in fiscal year 2026. In our view, production changes will take time to play out, and China will continue to dampen steel prices, and therefore, ferrous scrap prices outside the US," Mikkelsen added. The recent divergence of US and Turkish steel prices signals that US exporters could continue to prefer selling into the domestic market in the first quarter. US flat and long steel prices have continued to climb in December. Turkish rebar has decreased to $559/t ex-works, an $18.50/t decrease since 4 December. US ferrous scrap market participants expect prices to edge up in January based on slower supply flows in the winter season. But the long-term trend of steel tariffs fueling higher ferrous scrap supply in the US will likely persist in 2026 and keep preventing major price increases. Trump has shown no interest in nixing the steel tariffs, likely indicating that the US market will continue attracting similar or larger volumes of scrap from domestic and international sources in 2026. The first of two price increases scrap dealers got this year came when winter weather curbed supply flows nine months ago. The second came this month under the same circumstance. Sellers craved stronger demand from US steel mills to lift markets in early 2025. They got their wish when Trump doubled US steel tariffs to 50pc in June. US steel mill utilization rates jumped by 4pc to higher than 79pc in the summer. The stronger run rates equated to hundreds of thousands of metric tonnes (t) of additional monthly demand for scrap. US exporters shift sales to domestic mills US exporters diverted scrap sales — particularly shredded scrap — to US steel mills to help fill that extra demand. US scrap exports are on track to fall by 15pc to 11.7mn t this year, the lowest sum since 2016, according to annualized US customs data pending the releases for the final three months of the year, which were delayed by the federal government shutdown. US scrap imports have also risen, particularly from Mexico and Canada, because US steel tariffs have lessened demand for scrap in those countries. US ferrous scrap import volumes are on course to total 4.1mn t this year, a 10pc increase from 2024. The extra scrap supply in the US has prevented scrap prices from raising proportionally with steel. #1 busheling, a key feedstock for hot-rolled coil, averaged $390/gross ton (gt) this month, a 4pc increase from a year earlier. But US hot-rolled coil was $922/short ton (st) this week, a 38pc uptick during that time. Shredded scrap, a major part of melt mixes for rebar, was $378/gt on average in December, up by 5pc from a year earlier. Rebar rose by 23pc to $915/st in the past year. By James Marshall US ferrous scrap and iron metallic import/export swings t 2025 2024 ± ±% Imports Ferrous scrap 4,109,633 3,750,091 359,542 9.6 Pig iron 5,443,307 4,713,161 730,146 15.5 DRI/HBI 1,562,073 1,525,159 36,914 2.4 Exports Ferrous scrap 11,666,187 13,876,316 -2,210,129 -15.9 Net change in iron units in US 3,336,731 US customs data aggregated by Global Trade Tracker with final three months of 2025 annualized Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US tariffs altering UBC buying in ’26

25/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs altering UBC buying in ’26

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Consumers of used beverage cans (UBCs) likely will seek to purchase more of the scrap grade on a spot basis in 2026, minimizing their exposure to long-term supply agreements after buying spreads widened to historical lows this year on the back of a record-high regional premium. Sell-side sources estimate that most rolling mills reduced their volumes under contract between 10-20pc for next year compared to 2025 levels, reflecting a shift in consumers' procurement strategies after US tariffs on aluminum imports disrupted price mechanisms against which UBCs and other grades of scrap are traded. "All mills directionally did less contract pounds. That showed up everywhere," a broker said about 2026 negotiations. "They all want more flexibility to buy spot." Rolling mills locked in annual contracts for 2025 at tight discounts to the Midwest transaction price (MWTP), with sources saying that most deals were struck on either side of 80pc within a narrow range. Supply availability of UBCs was constrained at the end of 2024, prompting consumers to accept brokers' and dealers' higher offers to ensure stable inflows of scrap. But US trade policies and White House threats against major trading partners provoked a surge in the Midwest P1020 premium, which led to a sharp rise in the MWTP and an influx of UBC imports from overseas suppliers, with shipments setting a one-month high of 30,082 metric tonnes (t) in May as importers sought to take advantage of higher prices in the US, customs data showed. The US imported an average 16,230t of the scrap every month from 2023-2024, according to customs data. The regional upcharge climbed by more than 270pc from the start of the year to an all-time high of 88¢/lb as of 10 December, Argusdata showed. The MWTP rose by 56pc to $2.1665/lb in the same timeframe, with gains in the premium far outpacing increases in the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash settlement — the other component that comprises the MWTP. Buying spreads, as a result, dropped from an average of 80.8pc in January to an average of 45.3pc in November — reaching a low of 44.4pc on 29 October — after supply tightness eased and consumers widened discounts, saying underlying fundamentals did not support paying more for UBCs just because intrinsic values had risen, which several viewed as artificial increases. That sentiment from buyers has been reflected in outright prices for UBCs, which fell by a smaller margin — down by 13¢/lb, or by 12pc, to 98.5¢/lb at the end of November — compared to buying spreads. Still, that divergence in discounts led to a significant discrepancy between what rolling mills had to pay brokers and at what levels they could purchase UBCs in the spot market. This compelled consumers to take on more volumes from the trade or under shorter-term supply deals in 2026 in efforts to avoid a repeat of 2025. Consumers have already entered the spot market for significant tonnage for January, with one rolling mill having already closed out its next-month position and another procuring north of 40 truckloads so far. Buyers at the consumer level say they want to purchase more UBCs on the spot market to help fill the balance of their needs despite lower contract volumes. Sources noted that most rolling mills' overall consumption forecasts for 2026 are relatively stable based on downstream demand for beverage-can sheet. Adding to upward pressure on UBC demand are Section 232 import tariffs, which currently stand at 50pc. Consumers have sought to utilize more scrap for their melts to help offset elevated costs for P1020 and other grades of primary aluminum — a trend that most expect to persist next year. Beverage-can sheet can utilize a higher percentage — as high as 90pc, Argus understands — of scrap as an input compared to other flat-rolled products, precluding the need for rolling mills to use primary aluminum in their melts. Sources have signaled that first-quarter contracts with rolling mills have been locked in between 51-54pc of the MWTP, with buying spreads for annual deals that have been concluded coming in between 55-62pc broadly — depending on volume and the quality of UBCs. With those discounts, buyers effectively have priced in expectations that US tariffs on primary aluminum will persist throughout the year. Some market participants are optimistic that negotiations on a new US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement will result in a tariff carveout for aluminum from top US supplier Canada. Still, there have been no concrete indications that such a reduction, which likely would spur a drop in the Midwest premium, will come. Challenges to 2026 consumption While most consumers' indicated demand levels have not changed significantly, suppliers and brokers are monitoring developments with two major rolling mills to see how certain constraints may impact industrywide consumption for UBCs in 2026. Aluminum-roller Novelis' hot-rolling mill outage at its facility in Oswego, New York, which primarily produces flat-rolled products for the automotive industry, has forced the company and its domestic competitors to scramble to meet automakers' needs. Those efforts have included shifting manufacturing lines away from other end markets to focus on producing automotive-grade sheet or hot-rolled coil, also known as "hot band". Sources also noted that new entrant Aluminum Dynamics' (ADI) demand for UBCs may not be as significant for next year as market participants originally thought when the company first announced its 650,000 metric tonne (t)/yr plant in Columbus, Mississippi. ADI planned to build satellite facilities in Arizona and Mexico to supply Columbus, with those sites recycling UBCs to melt into slab for production of beverage-can sheet. The Arizona plant has yet to be built, with the company contending with locals who have been fighting its construction, while the Mexico facility is operational, but products from the site have been subject to import tariffs, sources said. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oversupply, rains drag Indian HRC prices lower in 2025

25/12/24

Oversupply, rains drag Indian HRC prices lower in 2025

Mumbai, 24 December (Argus) — Domestic Indian hot-rolled coil prices started 2025 on a strong note, but extended monsoons and abundant supply resulted in a steady decline from May, pushing prices below levels seen at the start of the year. The monthly average of the domestic 2.5-4.00mm HRC price assessed by Argus rose to 51,630 rupees/t ($569/t) in May, excluding goods and services tax (GST), from Rs47,360/t in January. The average price for December was Rs45,775/t as of 12 December. Indian HRC prices rose sharply between the end of February and early May on speculation around safeguard duties and supply shortages driven by mill maintenance work. India imposed 12pc provisional safeguard duties from 21 April, which led to a moderation in imports, particularly from China. Despite lower imports HRC prices began a steady descent from around mid-May. This was because the monsoon season started early and went on for longer than expected. Demand was slow to recover after monsoons, which along with surplus supply stemming from expanded domestic capacities kept prices under pressure in the final quarter of the year. As domestic demand struggled to catch up with supply, Indian producers grappling with rising inventories looked for more export opportunities in the second half of 2025. Indian HRC was exempt from anti-dumping duty in the EU, which had resulted in a surge in European demand at the end of March, but activity dwindled around August because of summer holidays in the bloc. But from September, Indian mills were able to sell sizeable volumes into Europe, as buyers began stockpiling ahead of changes related to the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and safeguard quotas expected in 2026. But prices remained under pressure as mills were forced to lower offers to entice buyers amid uncertainty related to CBAM taxes. While much of the focus was on the Europe during this period, Indian suppliers also sold some quantities to the Middle East and Vietnam. But these sales were concluded at much lower price levels, compared with those in the EU, because of competition from China in those markets. India became a net exporter of finished steel in October and November as exports surged and imports dropped on safeguard measures. European buying interest waned again towards the end of the year as buyers scrambled to understand CBAM taxes after draft documents circulated in the market. India exhausted its fourth-quarter HRC quota in November, and the possibility of the January-March quota also getting utilised quickly meant buyers remained cautious. Rumours that the post-safeguard quota changes could come into effect from April instead of July also sapped interest in Indian HRC. The monthly average cfr Europe price for Indian HRC fell from $630/t from April to $560/t as of 12 December. The average fob India HRC price for December stood at $477.50/t, declining from an average of $570/t in April. Indian exporters' focus has now shifted to Vietnam, a market where bids have been declining over the past few months. Indian suppliers could target alternate markets for HRC sales in 2026 as CBAM and quota changes impede shipments to Europe, market participants said. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

25/12/23

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico City, 23 December (Argus) — Mexico's trade surplus widened slightly in November from the previous month, despite sharp declines in both exports and imports in the non-oil category. Mexico posted a $663mn trade surplus in November, statistics agency Inegi said, up from a $606mn surplus in October, though on lower overall trade volumes. Total exports reached $56.4bn, while imports stood at $55.7bn, compared with $66.1bn and $65.5bn, respectively, in October. The result contrasted with the $391mn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inegi attributed the wider surplus to an increase in the non-oil trade surplus to $2.84bn in November from $2.74bn in October, alongside a widening of the oil trade deficit to $2.18bn from $2.13bn. Within non-oil trade, manufacturing exports fell by 16pc to $52.1bn in November from the prior month, while automotive exports declined by 2.2pc to $15.8bn, following a 4.8pc increase in October. The US absorbed 79pc of Mexico's light vehicle exports from January-November, with Mexico supplying 17pc of total US auto imports over the 11-month period, according to Mexican auto industry association AMDA. The "others" component of non-oil manufacturing exports dropped by 20pc to $36.3bn in November, nearly erasing October's 23pc gain to $45.5bn. The cumulative impact of US tariffs on Mexican goods is becoming clearer. Mexican bank Banco Base estimates the US levied an effective 4.69pc tariff on Mexican goods through September — below the 25pc blanket rate due to exemptions for goods complying with the USMCA free trade agreement. "The low tariffs have allowed Mexican exports to continue growing, particularly computer equipment, which rose by 83.39pc year to date through September compared with the same period in 2024, with a tariff of just 0.17pc," the bank said. Those "contrast sharply with passenger cars, which face a 15.29pc tariff," which maintain expectations of 7pc annual export growth in 2025, according to the bank. Agricultural exports rose by 3.8pc to $1.4bn in November after increases of 7.2pc in October and 4.1pc in September. Oil-related exports totaled $1.55bn in November, down from $1.82bn in October, including $1.03bn in crude and $514mn in refined products on lower prices and volumes. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $57.66/bl, down by $0.84/bl from October and $8.09/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 597,000 b/d in November from 717,000 b/d in October, remaining well below the 1.088mn b/d exported in November 2024. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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