The Italian government has doubled its 2030 target for solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and substantially increased its objectives for wind capacity, according to its revised National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) document seen by Argus.
Italy hopes to have 131.3GW of renewable generation assets installed by the end of the decade, up from a target of 95.2GW in the previous NECP published in 2019. The new target for solar PV was revised to 79.9GW, up by more than 50pc from a previous target of 52GW — the largest upward revision of any renewable source.
Rome is also now targeting 28.1GW of wind against a previous 19.3GW, and 1GW of geothermal compared with a previous goal of 950MW. The target for hydropower capacity — excluding pumped storage — remained unchanged from a previous 19.2GW owing to the technology already being "largely exploited", according to the document. Projections for capacity from biofuels were revised down from a previous 3.8GW to 3.1GW as Italy plans to gradually move away from biofuels at the end of the current incentive period.
The renewable target, if met, would mean that 40.5pc of Italy's overall energy consumption would be covered by renewable technologies in 2030, up from the previous target of 30pc. In particular, 65pc of Italy's power-sector consumption would be met by renewables against a previous target of 55pc, while the renewable share of heating-sector consumption would increase to 36.7pc from 33.9pc in the 2019 plan. And about 30.7pc energy consumption in the transport sector would be covered by renewables against a previous target of 22pc.
Italy's current installed capacity from renewable sources stands at 65.1GW, less than half of the new NECP target. Solar — including agri-PV — constitutes the single-largest technology in the country's renewable mix at 26.5GW, but stands at only a third of the country's 2030 targets.
The expansion in Italian solar PV capacity has been slow owing to lengthy authorisation processes, with an average of less than 1GW added each year since 2014, data from Italian grid operator Terna show. Yearly solar additions quickened to 2GW last year and 1.4GW in January-April 2023 owing to legislation introduced in April 2022 aimed at simplifying authorisations for projects of up to 20MW, but the recent repeal of the "superbonus 110pc" credit scheme for small-scale PV systems may slow uptake once more.
The draft plan also confirms that Italy will decommission its 6GW coal-fired fleet by 2025, with the exception of Czech EPH's 600MW Fiume Santo plant on the island of Sardinia, whose conversion to a 1GW renewable complex is set to coincide with the development of Terna's 2GW Tyrrhenian link.
Italy formalised its 2030 target for cross-border interconnection capacity, aiming for a 1.9GW increase from a current 6GW with the completion of the 600MW Italy-Tunisia interconnector, a second 500MW Italy-Greece cable and a new 300MW interconnection with Austria. Cross-zonal capacity is planned to increase from a current 16GW to 30GW by 2030, particularly from the central-south to the central-north zones and between Sardinia, Sicily and the mainland.
The current draft revision of Italy's NECP comes after a cross-sector and public consultation and has been lodged with Brussels. The definitive revision of Italy's NECP must be submitted to the European Commission by 30 June 2024.
