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Italy increases solar, wind targets in new NECP draft

  • Market: Electricity
  • 03/07/23

The Italian government has doubled its 2030 target for solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and substantially increased its objectives for wind capacity, according to its revised National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) document seen by Argus.

Italy hopes to have 131.3GW of renewable generation assets installed by the end of the decade, up from a target of 95.2GW in the previous NECP published in 2019. The new target for solar PV was revised to 79.9GW, up by more than 50pc from a previous target of 52GW — the largest upward revision of any renewable source.

Rome is also now targeting 28.1GW of wind against a previous 19.3GW, and 1GW of geothermal compared with a previous goal of 950MW. The target for hydropower capacity — excluding pumped storage — remained unchanged from a previous 19.2GW owing to the technology already being "largely exploited", according to the document. Projections for capacity from biofuels were revised down from a previous 3.8GW to 3.1GW as Italy plans to gradually move away from biofuels at the end of the current incentive period.

The renewable target, if met, would mean that 40.5pc of Italy's overall energy consumption would be covered by renewable technologies in 2030, up from the previous target of 30pc. In particular, 65pc of Italy's power-sector consumption would be met by renewables against a previous target of 55pc, while the renewable share of heating-sector consumption would increase to 36.7pc from 33.9pc in the 2019 plan. And about 30.7pc energy consumption in the transport sector would be covered by renewables against a previous target of 22pc.

Italy's current installed capacity from renewable sources stands at 65.1GW, less than half of the new NECP target. Solar — including agri-PV — constitutes the single-largest technology in the country's renewable mix at 26.5GW, but stands at only a third of the country's 2030 targets.

The expansion in Italian solar PV capacity has been slow owing to lengthy authorisation processes, with an average of less than 1GW added each year since 2014, data from Italian grid operator Terna show. Yearly solar additions quickened to 2GW last year and 1.4GW in January-April 2023 owing to legislation introduced in April 2022 aimed at simplifying authorisations for projects of up to 20MW, but the recent repeal of the "superbonus 110pc" credit scheme for small-scale PV systems may slow uptake once more.

The draft plan also confirms that Italy will decommission its 6GW coal-fired fleet by 2025, with the exception of Czech EPH's 600MW Fiume Santo plant on the island of Sardinia, whose conversion to a 1GW renewable complex is set to coincide with the development of Terna's 2GW Tyrrhenian link.

Italy formalised its 2030 target for cross-border interconnection capacity, aiming for a 1.9GW increase from a current 6GW with the completion of the 600MW Italy-Tunisia interconnector, a second 500MW Italy-Greece cable and a new 300MW interconnection with Austria. Cross-zonal capacity is planned to increase from a current 16GW to 30GW by 2030, particularly from the central-south to the central-north zones and between Sardinia, Sicily and the mainland.

The current draft revision of Italy's NECP comes after a cross-sector and public consultation and has been lodged with Brussels. The definitive revision of Italy's NECP must be submitted to the European Commission by 30 June 2024.


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17/02/25

Philippines to review shutdown of 232MW coal plant

Philippines to review shutdown of 232MW coal plant

Manila, 17 February (Argus) — The Philippines will review plans to retire the 232MW Mindanao coal-fired power plant in Misamis Oriental province because the rehabilitation of a major regional power complex could cause an electricity supply shortage. The country could put on hold plans to accelerate the retirement of the Mindanao coal plant to 2026 from 2031, the Department of Energy (DoE) said. The plant, majority owned by private-sector Aboitiz Power, started operations in 2006 under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) agreement with the National Power and Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management. The plant was originally scheduled to be retired in 2031 once the BOT agreement had run its course and plant ownership transferred to the national government, but authorities later decided to shut it down by 2026. The plant consumes over 1mn t/yr of coal. Authorities might review the retirement plans to offset the loss of power supply from the 1,000MW Agus-Pulangi hydropower complex, which will be rehabilitated next year. The complex comprises seven hydropower plants and serves as a key source of baseload power in the Mindanao grid. It is currently capable of producing only 600-700MW of power because of siltation and ageing infrastructure. Parts of the power complex are over 50 years old and its oldest dam, Agus 6, started commercial operations in April 1971. The rehabilitation involves repairing, replacing and upgrading the components of an existing hydroelectric power plant to restore its functionality, improve efficiency and extend its lifespan. The complex will run at a derated capacity during rehabilitation works, which could take several years. This comes as power demand in the Mindanao grid continued to increase last year. Demand averaged 2.248GW in 2024, a 10.2pc increase from 2.040GW a year earlier. The Mindanao plant could supply enough power to keep the grid stable at its full capacity, by covering for the loss in generating capacity and meeting the increase in power demand, DoE added. By Antonio Delos Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s economy grows in 2024


17/02/25
News
17/02/25

Japan’s economy grows in 2024

Osaka, 17 February (Argus) — Japan's economy expanded for a fourth consecutive year in 2024 as corporate investment increased, even as oil product demand fell. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualised rate of 2.8pc in October-December, according to preliminary government data released on 17 February, following growth of 1.7pc in July-September and 3pc in April-June. This sent Japan's full-year 2024 GDP up by 0.1pc from a year earlier, its fourth straight year of growth after a Covid-19 induced slump in 2020. Nominal GDP amount totalled ¥609.3 trillion ($4 trillion) in 2024, exceeding ¥600 trillion for the first time. Investment by private-sector companies rose by 1.2pc from a year earlier in 2024, recording annualised growth of 1.9pc in October-December. The rise partially reflected a government push for a green and digital transformation of the economy in line with its 2050 net-zero emission goal. Such spending is expected to continue to increase under Tokyo's economic stimulus package. Japanese business federation Keidanren has forecast that nominal capital investment could rise to ¥115 trillion in the April 2027 to March 2028 fiscal year, up by 7.5pc from an estimated ¥107 trillion in 2024-25. But private consumption, which accounts for more than 50pc of GDP, dropped by 0.1pc from a year earlier in 2024, as inflation capped spending by consumers. This also probably weighed on demand for oil products such as gasoline, despite government subsidies. Japan's domestic oil product sales averaged 2.4mn b/d in 2024, down by 5.2pc from a year earlier, according to data from the trade and industry ministry Meti. Gasoline sales, which accounted for 31pc of the total, dropped by 2.2pc to 752,700 b/d over the same period. But Japanese electricity demand edged up by 0.7pc year on year to an average of 98.8GW in 2024, according to nationwide transmission system operator the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators. Stronger power demand reflected colder than normal weather in March and unusually hot weather in October. Japan's real GDP is predicted to rise by 1.2pc during the 2025-26 fiscal year, following predicted 0.4pc growth in 2024-25 and a 0.7pc rise in 2023-24, the Cabinet Office said on 24 January. The figures are the Cabinet Office's official estimates and form the basis of its economic and fiscal management policies. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s offshore wind gains momentum


14/02/25
News
14/02/25

Brazil’s offshore wind gains momentum

New York, 14 February (Argus) — Brazil is preparing for its first offshore wind projects following the approval of legislation that establishes a regulatory framework for investments in the sector. Industry leaders anticipate that this legal foundation will accelerate development, with the first auction for offshore wind areas expected soon. The move comes as Brazil seeks to leverage its vast wind resources and address slowing growth in its onshore wind sector. "The offshore wind law was approved at the right moment," said Elbia Gannoum, president of Brazilian wind association Abeeolica. "Brazil has one of the largest wind generation potentials, and without this law, the country risked missing investment opportunities." The new legislation comes as onshore wind expansion slows. After nearly 5GW of new wind capacity was added in 2023, investment declined, with capacity expanding by just 3.3GW last year, according to Abeeolica. A lack of demand from power distributors in energy auctions and an oversupply of power generation capacity have contributed to the slowdown. With limited demand for new projects, equipment suppliers have scaled back operations, and in some cases, suspended activities in Brazil. With the offshore wind law in place, the sector is optimistic that the government will hold its first auction for offshore wind areas this year or in early 2026. Awarding these areas would pave the way for Brazil's first offshore wind projects to begin operations by 2031 or 2032. Before the auction, the government must finalize regulations for the sector, which Gannoum expects will be complete this year. Companies have already begun preparing for the auction, conducting assessments of wind speeds, power transmission infrastructure and supply chains, according to Ricardo de Luca, Brazil country director for UK offshore wind developer Corio Generation. Once the areas are awarded, project development could take up to four years, followed by an auction for power purchase agreements in 2028, de Luca estimates. Corio plans to develop five offshore wind projects in Brazil, totaling 5GW of installed capacity. Wind developers warn that Brazil must also prepare its power transmission infrastructure for future offshore wind projects. "Even though areas haven't been awarded, the mines and energy ministry must start planning transmission infrastructure in regions with significant offshore wind potential," said Fernando Elias, regulatory director at Casa dos Ventos. "Without long-term planning, infrastructure bottlenecks could prevent projects from moving forward." While transmission constraints could pose challenges, Brazil has an advantage in developing offshore wind thanks to its established offshore oil and gas industry, said Renato Machado dos Santos, regional director of renewable energy at RES. "There is significant overlap in the supply chains for offshore wind and oil, which will not only accelerate investment but also make Brazil a more attractive destination for investors." Opportunities ahead? Despite potential hurdles, offshore wind developers remain cautiously optimistic. US president Donald Trump's 20 January executive order suspending offshore wind leasing and permitting could shift more investor interest toward Brazil. "Trump's policies have redirected attention to Brazil," de Luca said, adding that the Brazilian government has demonstrated a long-term commitment to renewable energy development. Beyond the offshore wind law, other recent legislation is expected to bolster demand for power from future offshore wind projects. This includes the approval of the low-carbon hydrogen law, which will drive demand for green fertilizer production. Additionally, the expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and growing electricity demand from electric vehicle adoption will contribute to future power consumption in Brazil, a share of which will come from offshore wind projects, Gannoum said. Brazil’s onshore wind capacity GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Serbia aims to couple its electricity market in 4Q26


14/02/25
News
14/02/25

Serbia aims to couple its electricity market in 4Q26

London, 14 February (Argus) — Serbia aims to couple its day-ahead power market with the European market through its borders with Hungary and Bulgaria by the fourth quarter of 2026, but whether it will receive an exemption from the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) remains unclear, market operations specialist at Serbian electricity exchange Seepex Milos Mosurovic has told Argus . The fourth quarter of 2026 is the first available time slot for EU-led regulatory body Energy Community constituent states to join the EU's single day-ahead coupling scheme and was assigned by the market coupling steering committee, Mosurovic said. But market coupling is a prerequisite for exemption from the CBAM, which is planned to go into effect on 1 January 2026. Energy Community members previously agreed to the 2022 Electricity Integration Package, which would provide an exemption from the CBAM until 2030 if they coupled with the European market and met other requirements by 2026. But Energy Community Secretariat director Artur Lorkowski recently said in an interview with Argus that Energy Community constituent states probably will not receive a CBAM exemption , as they have not achieved market coupling, which is a precondition for exemption. But Lorkowski did acknowledge that "greater clarity is needed" on specific criteria to determine when a third country may be considered to have ''an electricity market that is integrated with the union". This lack of clarity, along with the procedural meetings, have created market uncertainty surrounding whether and how the CBAM could be applied to Energy Community constituent states. "All relevant participants in the energy sector are aware that [Energy Community] countries will not couple until [after] 1 January 2026," Mosurovic said. "This is why we do not know what to expect regarding the CBAM." If the CBAM was applied to electricity flows, an EU emissions trading system (ETS) equivalent would be applied to Serbian electricity flows beginning on 1 January 2026. The implementation of an EU ETS equivalent was deemed to be the most expensive of four models that could be introduced into the Energy Community region, as it would lead to an increase of 13-29pc more than the baseline scenario calculated on the electricity market as of July last year, an Energy Community ministerial council report published in December shows. The four proposed models are a regional ETS, a fixed-price ETS, a carbon tax and integration into the existing EU ETS. The final option was ranked the lowest for feasibility from a legal and technical standpoint. And the method of the application of the CBAM to electricity flows has not been revealed. According to an Energy Community report from October , it is not possible to separate electricity exports from transit flows based on currently available data, and therefore it is possible that both export and transit volumes will be subject to the CBAM, as transactions for electricity entering the EU from contracting parties were declared solely as imports regardless of origin. Thermal power plants among community contracting parties have benefited from access to the EU's integrated electricity market, but have not been subject to the EU ETS, despite all coal and lignite-fired thermal power plants in the region considered to be in breach of the requirements of the EU's large combustion plant directive. But thermal capacity remains key in the Balkans, despite more renewables entering the power mix. Coal-fired generation accounts for about 40pc of annual domestic generation in the region. By Annemarie Pettinato Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Erex cuts biomass-fired power output in January


14/02/25
News
14/02/25

Japan’s Erex cuts biomass-fired power output in January

Tokyo, 14 February (Argus) — Japanese renewable energy developer Erex's biomass-fired generation in January fell on the year, according to data released by the company on 13 February. Erex's combined electricity output from the 50MW Saiki, the 75MW Buzen, and the 49NW Nakagusuku biomass-fired power plants dropped by 8pc on the year to 113GWh in January 2025. The company does not publish data for the 75MW Ofunato plant. Erex's biomass-fired power generation capacity in January stood at 249MW, including Ofunato, burning mainly imported wood pellets and palm kernel shells (PKS). The 20MW Tosa plant has been shut down for an indefinite period since September 2024 because of aging facilities. The company plans to bring two more biomass-fired power plants in Japan on line — the 75MW Sakaide Hayashida in June 2025 and the 300MW Niigata Mega Bio around 2029-30. Erex plans to begin coal and biomass co-firing at the 149MW Itoigawa plant, which currently burns only coal. The plant has already conducted test runs using wood pellets, PKS, and sorghum pellets, but the company has not announced when it will start co-firing operations. Erex also aims to start operations at the 20MW Hau Giang biomass-fired power plant in Vietnam by the end of this month. The plant will burn around 130,000 t/yr of rice husks. By Takeshi Maeda Erex's biomass-fired generation in January 2025 Capacity(MW) Generation(GWh) Start of Operations Saiki 50 32 Nov-16 Buzen 75 48 Jan-20 Nakagusuku 49 32 Jul-21 Ofunato 75 - Jan-20 Total 249 113 Source: Erex Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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