24/12/12
Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA
London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a
planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next
year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan
to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months
to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year.
Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied,
the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by
some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest
global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show
supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain
in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members
start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from
guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times
and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions.
While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest
forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The
agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn
b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures.
This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded
its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d,
mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as
China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the
third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19
pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a
generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use."
Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport
fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological
progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by
110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such
as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its
supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said
global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an
"exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery
activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in
global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more
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