US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

: Metals, Natural gas
25/02/12

US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December.

The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation.

The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month.

Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply.

Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December.

Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain

New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction.

Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc.

CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains.

By Bob Willis

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25/06/13

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Jera signs LNG supply agreements with the US

25/06/13

Japan’s Jera signs LNG supply agreements with the US

Singapore, 13 June (Argus) — Japanese power producer Jera said this week that it has signed multiple long-term LNG supply agreements with US partners over the past two months, to procure up to 5.5mn t/yr over 20 years. This includes 2mn t/yr from NextDecade and 1mn t/yr from Commonwealth LNG. It also signed non-binding interim agreements with Sempra Infrastructure for 1.5mn t/yr and with developer Cheniere for 1mn t/yr. The deals offer competitive pricing and flexible contract terms. All supply will be delivered on a fob basis priced against the US' Henry Hub, allowing Jera to optimise shipping routes and respond flexibly to domestic demand and market conditions, the company said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Limited prompt impact on LNG from Israel-Iran conflict

25/06/13

Limited prompt impact on LNG from Israel-Iran conflict

London, 13 June (Argus) — Israel has halted production at two of its major gas fields and cut pipeline exports to Egypt, but resulting LNG demand may only come later this summer when Egypt builds out its LNG import capacity. Israel's Karish and Leviathan fields have stopped production following a government order issued in the wake of Israeli airstrikes on Iran . Israel's energy ministry today said it expects the minister to declare a state of emergency in the gas sector. Pipeline exports to Egypt and Jordan have since dropped sharply, market participants said, resulting in Egypt cutting gas supply to urea plants as it prioritises gas for power generation. But Egypt has access to only one LNG import terminal at present — the 170,000m³ Hoegh Galleon floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) at Ain Sukhna. Three carriers were holding offshore today waiting to deliver, and the terminal is importing at maximum capacity already, so Egypt cannot import more than it already is through the facility. And Jordan no longer has LNG import capacity, with the 160,000m³ Energos Eskimo having departed ahead of installation later this summer in Egypt. The FSRU at present is at a shipyard in Egypt's Ain Sukhna, unable to import LNG for either Jordan or Egypt. The gas supply cuts from Israel also come ahead of the region's peak cooling demand season. LNG demand could rise if Israeli gas supply is constrained for an extended period of time. Egypt plans to build out its LNG import terminal capacity to three FSRUs later this summer, as well as an additional temporary FSRU for summer leased from Turkey's Botas, and additional LNG import capacity would allow for stronger imports if Israeli supply remains constrained. Two of these FSRUs — the Energos Eskimo and 174,000m³ Energos Power — are at Egyptian shipyards and could be installed in the coming weeks or months. Egypt is understood to have bought at least 110 cargoes for delivery this year , which is equivalent to just under 8mn t. But the country plans to add about 18mn t/yr of LNG import capacity for its peak summer season, assuming 750mn ft³/d of regasification capacity at three FSRUs. Egypt imported 10.2bn m³, or almost 8mn t, of pipeline gas from Israel last year, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi), meaning that with three FSRUs, Egypt has enough capacity to substitute lost Israeli volumes with LNG imports. But it remains unclear for how long Israeli gas exports will be curtailed. Iran also struck Israeli targets with missiles in early October last year , with Israel's Tamar and Leviathan fields having gone off line temporarily, although production returned after one day. Another potential impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East is disruption to shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, but LNG carriers have continued to transit the route as normal today. The tensions could compound insurance costs, adding to shipping costs from the Middle East. More than 80mn t/yr of LNG supply, mostly from Qatar, has to transit the Strait of Hormuz to reach international delivered markets. By Martin Senior Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran suggests upcoming nuclear talks with US are off

25/06/13

Iran suggests upcoming nuclear talks with US are off

Dubai, 13 June (Argus) — Nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US scheduled for Sunday, 15 June, appear to be off following the Israeli air and missile strikes on Iran in the early hours of today. The talks were formally confirmed by mediators Oman on 12 June as taking place in the Omani capital, Muscat. With the mood around the negotiations having taken a turn for the worse this past week, the new round would provide an opportunity for the sides to re-establish their demands, and re-evaluate progress. The key outstanding issue is Iran's ability to enrich uranium, and thus, retain a theoretical path to nuclear weapons. Tehran insists it should be allowed to retain its civilian nuclear enrichment program to supply fuel to nuclear power plants, while US administration officials now appear bent on allowing zero enrichment. The Israeli attacks , which came against US President Donald Trump's advice, appear to have thrown a wrench into the US' efforts to engage Iran diplomatically. Speaking on state television today, Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy committee member Alaeddin Boroujerdi said the attacks on Iran meant the talks with the US now cannot take place. "With respect to the talks, which we entered at America's request… we were on the verge of a sixth round," he said. "But with these latest developments, I can't see a sixth round taking place." Iran's foreign ministry, which has been leading the discussions for the Iranian side, has yet to explicitly comment on the status of the talks. Neither has Oman. On the attacks, Tehran's Guardian Council, a powerful supervisory body tasked with overseeing legislation, vowed to "give a crushing and tooth-breaking response to these criminals of history in such a way that it will serve as a less on to the enemies of Islam, and the arrogant powers of the world." Iran sent a barrage of drones towards Israel, which appeared to trigger a second round of Israeli strikes on several cities, including Shiraz in the south, Tabriz in the northwest, and Kermanshah in the west. Trump calls for deal The Trump administration has said it was not involved in the Israeli strikes, and warned Iran not to retaliate against its personnel in the Middle East. But it did appear to have at least advance warning of the imminent attack, after ordering non-essential US personnel in Iraq and Israel to evacuate. Trump today again called on Iranian leaders to "make a deal" or face even more "death and destruction" from the next waves of Israeli attacks. "I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal… but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done," Trump said on his Truth Social media platform. "There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacked being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left." By Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran’s oil infrastructure untouched by Israeli strikes

25/06/13

Iran’s oil infrastructure untouched by Israeli strikes

Dubai, 13 June (Argus) — Iran's oil infrastructure emerged unscathed from Israeli air and missile strikes in the early hours of 13 June, according to Iran's state news agency Irna and Argus sources. But the attacks have raised the prospect of a broader escalation in the world's largest oil-producing region. Israel said the strikes targeted military facilities and infrastructure linked to Iran's nuclear programme. It described the operation as an act of self-defence, claiming Iran is "closer than ever" to acquiring a nuclear weapon. The US denied involvement and urged Tehran not to retaliate against US personnel in the region. Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that its Bushehr nuclear power plant was not targeted and that no increase in radiation levels had been observed at its Natanz site, IAEA director general Rafael Grossi said today. Oil operations remain unaffected. Activities at Iranian facilities are continuing "without interruption and in a stable manner," Irna reported, citing state-owned refiner NIORDC. The operator of Iran's 700,000 b/d Abadan refinery said the plant is running at full capacity with no disruption, according to the state news agency Shana. The 110,000 b/d Tabriz refinery — located near one of the reported strike zones — was not hit and "operations resumed as normal," an official at the plant told Argus . No other Iranian oil or gas facilities have been targeted so far, Argus understands. Crude futures surged in early Asian trading on news of the strikes, rising by as much as 13pc before paring gains. As of 09:00 GMT, the front-month August Ice Brent contract was trading at $74.30/bl, down from an earlier high of $78.50/bl. The absence of physical supply disruption helped ease immediate concerns, but the risk of a wider conflict remains high. In response to the strikes, Iran launched around 100 drones toward Israeli territory. "Israel is working to intercept [the drones]," Israeli military spokesperson Effie Defrin said. Israeli media later reported that all drones were intercepted. The fallout from the strikes has affected regional gas operations. Greek independent Energean suspended production from its Karish gas field offshore Israel following a government order issued after the Israeli attacks. Security concerns in key shipping lanes were already rising ahead of the strikes. On 12 June, the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) warned that the "threat will be elevated until further notice for vessels operating in or transiting the Arabian Gulf, strait of Hormuz, and Northern Arabian Sea". Any disruption to the strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for nearly a fifth of global oil flows — could have immediate and severe consequences for global crude supply and pricing. The Yemen-based Houthi movement, part of Iran's regional proxy network known as the ‘Axis of Resistance', condemned the Israeli strikes and affirmed "Iran's right to carry out a deterrent response." It declared support for Iran's "legitimate right to respond to the aggression." So far, however, neither the Houthis nor other Iran-aligned groups — including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Shia militias in Iraq — have taken retaliatory action. Israel has significantly weakened the Axis of Resistance since the October 2023 Hamas-led attack, eliminating most of Hamas' leadership and key Hezbollah figures. Israel and Iran also exchanged missile and drone strikes in 2024. By Bachar Halabi, Yong Li Tng and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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