26/03/26
Nordic data centres to support power demand growth
London, 26 March (Argus) — Nordic data centre power consumption is expected to
grow rapidly over the next decade, and Norway's government and transmission
system operator (TSO) Statnett remain committed to a "technology-neutral"
connections process, they told Argus , despite the region's tightening power
balance and data centres often having inflexible consumption patterns. Power
consumption from data centres is forecast to reach 28 TWh/yr regionally by 2030
or 5pc of total demand, up from 8TWh or 2pc of demand in 2024, according to
projections by Statnett. The TSO forecasts around 4 TWh/yr of consumption in
Finland by 2030, doubling compared with 2024, and 8 TWh/yr in Denmark. Norwegian
and Swedish data centre consumption is forecast to total 7 TWh/yr and 9 TWh/yr,
respectively, by 2030 ( see graph ). But in Norway that figure could be even
higher, as the country's reserved capacity for data centres has grown to 3.5GW
and its capacity queue to 5.4GW since Statnett published its long-term market
analysis for 2050 two years ago. That rapid expansion in a new demand source
will coincide with a sharply tightening power balance across the region. Hanging
in the balance A tighter power balance will ultimately support higher
electricity prices across the region, eroding some of the incentive for data
centre operators to position themselves in the Nordics. But the Norwegian energy
ministry still expects Norwegian and Nordic prices to remain lower than in
northern Europe, allowing the region to retain its competitiveness, it told
Argus . That price outlook is expected to lead to some "dampening" of demand
from heavy industry and other sectors, the government added. Swedish TSO Svenska
Kraftnat this month reduced its demand forecast for every high-consuming sector
other than data centres. The Nordic region's ability to meet the substantial new
consumption of its data centre fleet remains to be seen over the short term,
especially given the limited new production capacity expected by 2030. Svenska
Kraftnat forecasts that the regional surplus will fall to 29TWh by 2030 from
around 53TWh in 2026. And in Sweden alone, the power surplus is projected to
fall by 65pc to 12TWh by 2030, with capacity projected to grow to just 56.1GW
from around 50GW in 2026, TSO data show. While the Norwegian government expects
Norway and its neighbours to remain competitive, "there is considerable
uncertainty regarding how many [queued] projects" will actually be built and
when, it told Argus . This uncertainty is based in part on the precedent across
all sectors that "not all projects that request or reserve grid capacity are
realised", it said. Flexibility matters Data centre consumption is likely to
make up a large part of the planned increase in electricity consumption in the
coming years in Nordic markets, especially as demand growth in other sectors has
slowed relative to expectations, according to Svenska Kraftnat. The region plans
to meet part of this demand growth with intermittent renewables, increasing the
need for flexibility on their grids, which data centres may not be best placed
to provide. Data centres "can have different operational characteristics
depending on the technology and services they provide", the Norwegian energy
ministry said, acknowledging that these projects will "differ in their
incentives and possibilities to react to [power price] fluctuations... and
participate in balancing markets [e.g. demand-side response]". Data centres —
broadly those providing cloud computing services and capacity for artificial
intelligence (AI) — operate with an "always-up" requirement, offering constant
availability and demanding electricity at all times, albeit with some
predictable variability, with consumption lowest around 04:00, according to
Norwegian grid data provider Elhub. That contrasts with data centres focused on
cryptocurrency mining, which can be unpredictable and produce rapid swings in
consumption according to the market value of their output currency. While
mainstream cloud and AI centres offer predictable consumption patterns that are
easy to integrate within long-term network and system plans, according to Elhub,
they also introduce a high-consuming yet inflexible and non-price responsive
block of demand onto the network, at a time when network flexibility is a
critical policy objective at the national, Nordic and European level. But
despite data centres having a different consumption profile to other
high-consuming industrials, the Norwegian government noted that it "does not
classify specific sectors as firm or interruptible load" and that the
responsible authorities must assess grid connections using a "neutral and
non-discriminatory framework", it told Argus . And it confirmed that there are
"no plans to move away from the current principles of neutrality". Statnett
confirmed that it is "required to treat all sectors equally". At the same time,
distribution system operators have "an obligation to connect customers, as long
as it is socioeconomically rational", Statnett said. By Daniel Craig Data centre
consumption, actual and forecast TWh/yr Send comments and request more
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