Retail gasoline and diesel sales fell by 13pc across Mexico's northwestern states in June, with Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora and Chihuahua states all posting declines from a year earlier as gasoline and diesel demand weakened throughout the region.
Combined retail fuel sales in the four states fell to about 137,500 b/d in June from 158,500 b/d a year earlier, according to Argus calculations using the latest data from the national energy commission (CNE).
Baja California remained the region's largest fuel market and recorded the steepest decline among the four states, with total demand falling by 14pc to 47,000 b/d from 55,000 b/d a year earlier. Baja California Sur also posted a 14pc decline, with fuel demand falling to 11,500 b/d from 13,500 b/d. Chihuahua's fuel sales fell by 12pc to 44,000 b/d from 50,000 b/d, while Sonora recorded a 12pc decline to 35,500 b/d from 40,500 b/d.
The figures cover sales through retail fuel stations operating under the state-owned Pemex brand and other private brands. They exclude diesel supplied directly to industrial consumers and self-supply users, which account for a substantial share of Mexico's diesel demand. The data therefore reflect retail fuel demand rather than total consumption.
Gasoline accounted for most of the decline across the four states. Combined regular and premium gasoline demand fell by 14pc to about 107,000 b/d from 125,000 b/d a year earlier. Regular gasoline sales declined by 11pc to 92,000 b/d from 104,000 b/d, while premium gasoline demand fell by 28pc to 15,000 b/d from 21,000 b/d.
Baja California recorded the steepest decline in volume terms. Combined regular and premium gasoline demand fell by 15pc to 38,500 b/d from 45,500 b/d a year earlier. Chihuahua followed, with gasoline demand declining by 13pc to 33,500 b/d from 39,000 b/d. Sonora's gasoline sales fell by 13pc to 26,000 b/d from 30,000 b/d, while Baja California Sur recorded a 14pc decline to 9,000 b/d from 10,500 b/d.
Diesel-related fuels also weakened throughout the region. Combined sales of diesel and ULSD fell by 9pc to about 30,500 b/d from 34,000 b/d a year earlier. All four states posted lower diesel demand, in contrast to Nuevo Leon, where retail diesel sales rose in June.
Premium gasoline recorded the steepest decline among the region's major fuel categories. Sales fell by 28pc across the four states, compared with an 11pc decline in regular gasoline demand. Baja California posted the largest loss in premium volume terms, while Sonora, Baja California Sur and Chihuahua recorded similar declines.
The June data suggest fuel demand weakened across a broad section of Mexico's northern region. Consumption declined in border markets such as Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez and Nogales, as well as in tourism-oriented Baja California Sur, indicating the slowdown was not confined to a single state.
Northwestern Mexico is supplied through a combination of Pacific coast shipments and cross-border imports. Pemex's Pacific logistics system moves fuel produced at the 330,000 b/d Salina Cruz refinery, as well as imported product, by tanker to terminals including Rosarito, Guaymas and La Paz. Rosarito is connected by pipeline to Ensenada and Mexicali, while Guaymas supplies Hermosillo and Ciudad Obregon in Sonora, with tank trucks serving other inland markets.
Chihuahua can receive US product through the El Paso-Ciudad Juarez corridor, as well as supply moving north from Gomez Palacio, Durango state. Private-sector companies supplement Pemex through marine, pipeline, rail and truck imports.
US projects could reshape supply
Fuel flows in western US are also being reshaped after the closures of Phillips 66's 139,000 b/d Los Angeles complex and Valero's 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery removed about 17pc of California's refining capacity.
The losses could tighten export availability and increase competition for Pacific coast cargoes in the near term, particularly for Baja California. But they are also prompting projects intended to move Midcontinent and US Gulf coast supply west, reducing Arizona's historical dependence on southern California.
Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan and HF Sinclair reached FID this month on the $5bn, 230,000 b/d Western Gateway system, targeting completion in 2029. The project would move fuel through a new pipeline from Borger, Texas, to Phoenix, Arizona, before sending some volumes west into California through a reversal of Kinder Morgan's existing SFPP West line.
Oneok is separately considering its proposed 200,000 b/d Sun Belt Connector from El Paso, Texas, to Phoenix, while HF Sinclair is evaluating a first-phase expansion that could add 35,000 b/d of capacity to move Rocky Mountain supply into Nevada. None of the projects include a Mexican extension, but El Paso and Tucson, Arizona, are established supply points for fuel moving into northern Mexico. Additional supply at those hubs and in southern California could become available to buyers in Chihuahua, Sonora or Baja California through existing cross-border logistics, depending on prices and import regulations.
