Hormuz crude flows, ship attacks on the rise

: Crude oil, Freight, Oil products
26/10/02

Record high tanker freight rates are pushing strait of Hormuz crude flows — and Iranian attacks on tankers — to some of the highest levels since the outbreak of war between Iran and the US.

Total Middle East crude oil exports are up by 36pc for the week ending 30 September at 17.92mn b/d, including 12.34mn b/d through the strait of Hormuz, according to vessel information firm TankerTrackers.com. This would place weekly Hormuz crude flows at around 80pc of their levels in February, prior to the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran, which is estimated by vessel tracking service Vortexa to be around 15.14mn b/d.

The US and Iran have not reached any sort of agreement for ending the war, so the risks to ships continue to be as significant as they were earlier in the war when less oil was flowing. But the risks, combined with a limited pool of vessels available to transit Hormuz, has kept freight rates high, incentivizing the dangerous work. The rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to move Middle Eastern crude through Hormuz to Asia-Pacific has been at $34.31/bl since 18 September, its highest level since Argus began assessing the route in November 2016.

The spot tanker market is moving from strength-to-strength following the start of the war in Iran, according to Harrys Kosmatos, executive at tanker shipowner TEN, speaking at a forum in New York on Wednesday. He highlighted a deal from earlier in the week for a 2004-built VLCC that a charterer provisionally hired at $2mn per day to transit through the strait of Hormuz. In comparison, a VLCC from the US Gulf coast-China was at $366,704/d on 1 October, per Argus assessments.

"You don't even need peace now in Iran, you just need the oil to come out," Robert Bugbee, president of shipowner Scorpio Tankers said.

Iran steps up attacks

The increased ship traffic has been accompanied by more attacks from Iran, particularly on ships transiting the strait on the southern US-assisted transit route.

There were six attacks in the last five days, per the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO). This includes an attack reported Friday against a tanker exiting the strait which caused a fire onboard. The vessel remains in transit.

Iran continues to target crude exports from countries in the Gulf, including the UAE and Kuwait.

"Several oil tankers have been hit in the strait of Hormuz in recent days, three of the latest of which are owned or leased by entities in the UAE," according to a statement by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority published by Iranian-government affiliated news agency IRNA on Friday.

The Kuwaiti VLCC Kazimah III was hit on 1 October, according to Martin Kelly, former head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, the second Kuwaiti state VLCC hit since 28 September.

Since the start of July, 31 of 48 projectile strike incidents reported to UKMTO occurred on the southern US-assisted transit lane. UKMTO acknowledged in its weekly report that there are likely "other projectile strikes occurring that have NOT been reported to UKMTO."

By Charlotte Bawol

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26/10/02

Brazil prepares for knife-edge election

Rio de Janeiro, 2 October (Argus) — Brazilians go to the polls on 4 October for what looks set to be the tightest presidential race in recent history, with candidates' energy platforms also closer than in past elections. Incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election for a fourth, non-consecutive term, leads voting intentions with 40pc. He is statistically tied with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro with 36pc, according to The Economist 's 30 September poll tracker, which aggregates results from the main national polls. No other candidate is polling above the low single digits. If no candidate secures more than 50pc of the valid vote on 4 October, there will be a runoff between the two leading candidates on 25 October. Lula has campaigned on his legacy of social welfare programs and the defense of national sovereignty. In recent weeks, the government announced a flurry of measures designed to appeal to poorer voters, including an increase in benefits payments and a ban on online betting. Bolsonaro is standing in for his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup after losing the last election to Lula. Although the son cuts a more moderate figure, he is widely expected to emulate much of his father's far-right agenda. The younger Bolsonaro promises a hard line on crime and has said he will seek an amnesty for his father if elected. In a tepid campaign marked by voter fatigue with corruption and the cost of living, and overshadowed by a multi-billion reais banking scandal implicating top judges and politicians, concrete proposals on issues like energy policy have taken a backseat. Both candidates are expected to seek more investment in oil and natural gas production alongside developing greener energy sources like biofuels, although their approach may differ. Lula, a statist, has indicated that state-controlled Petrobras would remain at the center of Brazil's energy policy and has spoken of the state re-entering the fuel distribution market. By contrast, Bolsonaro would likely pursue a more market-friendly route. He has spoken of revoking a temporary 12pc tax on crude exports — introduced by the Lula government to mitigate the price impact of the Middle East war — and of dropping the widespread production-sharing model of oil exploration contracts for the industry-preferred concession regime. A US-shaped shadow Hanging over the elections are concerns with possible interference by the US. On 1 October, Brazil's solicitor general asked the federal police to investigate alleged financing of far-right agendas by President Donald Trump's administration. Lula's Workers' party filed a similar request with the supreme court last week, raising concerns about foreign meddling to benefit Bolsonaro. In a 24 September letter to secretary of state Marco Rubio, Democratic members of Congress denounced "a sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil" by US officials. President Trump is a long-standing ally of the Bolsonaro family and has leaned on elections elsewhere in the region to help get allies into office. Bolsonaro plans to join Trump's Shield of the Americas security alliance if elected and is perceived as a more pliable partner on matters like rare earths cooperation. Trump said on 1 October that he is watching the Brazilian elections "very closely". By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Air, sea sustainable fuel tipping points still far off

26/10/02

News

26/10/02

Air, sea sustainable fuel tipping points still far off

Strong global policy is needed to change sustainable shipping fuel economics, writes Michael Ball Washington, 2 October (Argus) — Significant work remains to transition the world away from fossil fuel in aviation and shipping, despite repeated support pledged at UN climate talks. The need to ramp up the use of alternative fuels will be a focus of the UN's Cop 31 climate summit next month in Antalya, Turkey. The host wants countries to join a new pledge to boost electricity to 35pc of all global final energy consumption by 2035, up from about 20pc currently. Last year's host, Brazil, has its own initiative to quadruple global output and use of sustainable fuels, including biofuels, by 2035. And past Cops have produced other pledges to reduce emissions in aviation or shipping. But alternative fuels have not yet reached their tipping point, accounting for less than 1pc of the fuel used in aviation or shipping globally. Cost and politics remain two of the major roadblocks. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry has shown signs of growth. Major fuel users, including Delta Airlines and FedEx, have recently extended and expanded SAF offtake agreements . And production is on the rise. For example, Neste, the leading producer of SAF, currently has production capacity of 1.5mn t/yr, which it plans to grow to 2.2mn t/yr in 2027, or about 750mn USG. But SAF still makes up a small, but growing, sliver of fuel use. Suppliers in the EU blended nearly 3pc into jet fuel last year , surpassing the bloc's 2pc mandate in its first year. In the US, SAF accounts for roughly 1pc of jet fuel supply, although the US EIA expects that to soon reach about 2pc. Global production this year is set to exceed 790mn USG, up by 26pc on the year, according to the International Air Transport Association. The story is similar in shipping. Globally, ships of at least 5,000 gross tonnage used more than 223mn t of fuel oil in 2024, about 92.5pc of which came from heavy fuel oil, light fuel oil or diesel, according to International Maritime Organization (IMO) data. Only about 0.8pc came from "other" fuels, despite biofuels jumping to more than 1.2mn t from less than 400,000t in 2023. But the slow pace of fleet turnover, and the need for more engines that can use alternatives, means that the course the industry plots over the next few years could determine whether it can meet the IMO's goal of net zero emissions by 2050, according to a recent report from the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD). Cost calculations Cost remains a major hurdle to greater SAF use in aviation and shipping. SAF can reduce emissions under the International Civil Aviation Organisation's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) system, which seeks to offset any growth in aviation CO2 above 85pc of 2019 levels. But using Corsia carbon offsets currently costs significantly less. Argus assessed Corsia phase 1 credits at $12.45/t this week, compared with an abatement cost as high as $310/t for the US west coast. In other parts of the world , the cost of abating 1t of CO2 equivalent in emissions by using SAF instead of jet fuel is even higher. In shipping, GCMD says strong global policy is needed to change the economics of sustainable fuels, as national and sub-national efforts will fall short. At the top of the list is the IMO-proposed carbon pricing system, the adoption of which was delayed last year in the face of US opposition. IMO pledged to try again this year. The agency will meet next month to consider next steps toward achieving its greenhouse gas emissions goals. "Achieving a price signal of this magnitude will be challenging, but without it, the economics are unlikely to support the transition to new fuels at scale," the GCMD said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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BMUKN erwägt Ausschluss maritimer THG-Mengen

26/10/02

News

26/10/02

BMUKN erwägt Ausschluss maritimer THG-Mengen

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G7 starten Freigabe von Ölreserven

26/10/02

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26/10/02

G7 starten Freigabe von Ölreserven

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G7 starts immediate 100mn bl oil stock release

26/10/02

News

26/10/02

G7 starts immediate 100mn bl oil stock release

London, 2 October (Argus) — The G7 will immediately begin a co-ordinated release of 100mn bl of oil stocks over the next four months, including a substantial diesel release within 20 days, its leaders said today. The group asked the IEA to monitor the "immediate and full implementation" of stock-release commitments made in March. It said members would carry out the 100mn bl release "in this regard" and while "taking into account commitments that have already been fulfilled". This indicates the 100mn bl is a portion of the commitments made in March, rather than an additional pledge. The "frontloaded" diesel release will be carried out by G7 members and partners. The statement did not specify the amount of diesel or how the 100mn bl would be divided between crude and refined products. G7 members will meet through the IEA in the coming days to discuss additional diesel releases if needed. They will also co-ordinate refinery maintenance schedules to avoid simultaneous shutdowns and temporarily raise refinery utilisation where possible, and will encourage countries with significant refining capacity to increase production of refined products, particularly diesel. IEA members agreed in March to make 400mn bl of oil available from emergency reserves in response to supply disruption caused by the war in the Middle East. The IEA subsequently put members' planned contributions at 426mn bl , comprising 301mn bl of crude and 125mn bl of oil products. The IEA will monitor the effect of the stock release and other supply measures on energy security and market stability and report within 20 days. Its report will include recommendations on further action, including replenishing emergency stocks, the G7 said. The G7 statement today also addresses the possibility of a US diesel export ban. Members pledged not to restrict trade in energy and energy products between G7 countries and called on other producers to avoid bans that could exacerbate market tensions. The US is considering restricting diesel exports to reduce domestic prices ahead of its midterm elections. The European Commission said earlier today such a ban would undermine its trust in the US as a reliable partner. EU diesel supplies are stable for now, although prices are high because of tight global markets, the commission said. Europe has become increasingly dependent on US diesel since Mideast Gulf flows were constrained by the near-closure of the strait of Hormuz and Russia halted diesel exports. The EU, UK and Norway received around 430,000 b/d of US diesel and other gasoil in August, according to Kpler. US supplies have accounted for around 40pc of the region's diesel and gasoil imports on average this year. Any US export ban would intensify competition between Europe, Latin America and other importing regions for alternative supplies. Some market participants have questioned whether a full ban would be sustainable. Excess diesel would accumulate in the US, potentially forcing refiners to cut crude runs and reducing domestic gasoline production. The G7 also addressed the wider conflicts behind the disruption to energy markets. It condemned Iran's attacks on neighbouring countries and its disruption of international trade, energy security and the global economy, and called for the immediate and full restoration of navigational rights through the strait of Hormuz. The group pledged to maintain sanctions against Russia while working with the IEA and other partners to "prevent further spillovers" into fuels, gas and other commodity markets. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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