Australia's east coast states will have a smaller-than-expected surplus of gas in the first quarter of 2027 due to falling supply, the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC) projected in its latest Gas Inquiry September 2026 interim report.
The ACCC is forecasting a surplus of 5-15PJ in Australia's east coast gas market in January-March 2027, depending on the amount of uncontracted gas exported by producers, the competition regulator said on 9 October.
The projected surplus was revised down by 9PJ from the ACCC's June forecast, which anticipated a 15PJ surplus over the quarter if all uncontracted gas was exported. The downgrade was largely due to projected falls in southern state gas production and an increase in export demand. The ACCC predicts a surplus of 12PJ throughout 2027 if producers export all uncontracted gas, representing a 27PJ decline from its June forecast.
Projected supply from southern state producers fell by 10PJ from the ACCC's last forecast, while supply from Queensland is predicted to be 3PJ higher because of greater production from the Surat basin, offset slightly by lower production in the Bowen basin.
Supply in south-east Australian states will tighten over the winter as demand for heating increases, the ACCC said, but this will likely be met via additional gas from Queensland. Regulators anticipate there will be enough pipeline capacity to support necessary gas flows from Queensland. Surplus from January-March 2027 will also be important for meeting winter demand.
The conflict in the Middle East did not appear to have materially affected domestic gas prices in Australia, and current domestic price levels are consistent with local supply and demand conditions, the ACCC said.
