Q2 2024 fatty acids and alcohols outlook
This exclusive update delivers a concise overview of the fatty acids and alcohols markets, sharing insight into:
- Palm and lauric oil prices, analysis and outlook
- Glycerine quarterly contracts, supply & demand discussion and trade flow analysis
- Fatty alcohols quarterly outlook trends and in depth trade analysis
- Fatty acids price outlook, trade data and feedstock analysis
Spotlight content
Related news
US tariffs hit Brazil rosin ester sales for 1Q 2026
US tariffs hit Brazil rosin ester sales for 1Q 2026
London, 17 December (Argus) — Brazilian rosin ester sellers are losing first-quarter 2026 orders as US buyers avoid imports facing 50pc tariffs. Talks to ease duties have progressed, but US customers have already secured early-2026 volumes elsewhere, limiting Brazil's near-term sales. Even if tariffs fall soon, shipments would not reach the US in time for first-quarter delivery, sellers said. The US is a key market for gum rosin and rosin esters used in road marking and hot melt adhesives. Shutdowns at crude tall oil (CTO) refineries in DeRidder, Louisiana, and Crossett, Arkansas, cut 300,000 t/yr of US tall oil refining capacity. The closures sharply reduced domestic tall oil rosin (TOR) and TOR ester output, creating an opportunity for Brazilian product to fill the gap. Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show Brazilian gum rosin exports to the US hit a record high of 4,602t in 2024, supported by the CTO refinery shutdowns. But exports have fallen sharply since then, totalling just 1,551t in January-November this year. Gum rosin can substitute for TOR in some applications, and both feedstocks are upgraded into rosin esters. But tariffs have kept US buyers reliant on domestic TOR ester and alternative tackifiers for adhesives and road marking. Southern European rosin esters are gradually entering the US market to cover some of the drop in Brazilian sales, sellers and buyers said. Midpoint European CTO prices fell by 18.7pc on the year to €650/t ex-mill in the fourth quarter of 2025. In contrast, Brazilian pine oleoresin prices rose by 13.8pc to 5,150 reals/t (€804/t) at the forest on 15 December from a year earlier. Pine oleoresin and CTO are feedstocks for gum rosin and TOR production, respectively, which are then upgraded into rosin esters. European derivative producers use both Brazilian gum rosin and local TOR for rosin ester output. Lost first-quarter sales and tariffs will likely curb second-quarter volumes next year, Brazilian suppliers said. Larger Brazilian sellers saw double-digit growth in the first half of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, but orders for the first half of 2026 are at risk because of missed US sales in the opening quarter. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Indonesian waste oil supply to fall in 2026
Viewpoint: Indonesian waste oil supply to fall in 2026
Singapore, 15 December (Argus) — Indonesia's implementation of a 50pc biodiesel (B50) blend mandate and ongoing palm plantation seizures may raise palm oil prices and reduce global waste oil supply, likely keeping palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil prices supported in 2026. The country raised its biodiesel blend target by 5pc to 40pc starting from February 2025 and is targeting another 10pc increase to 50pc by the second half of 2026 . The higher blending mandate would lower total palm oil exports by about 11-12pc in 2026 compared with 2024 and 2025, Indonesian agriculture ministry official Baginda Siagan said at the 21st Indonesian palm oil conference (IPOC2025) in November. This would likely support an increase in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, industry analysts said. Prices of CPO and palm-based waste oil like Pome oil are linked because market participants historically priced Pome oil at a set discount to CPO values, and they are both feedstocks for biofuel production. But waste oil export values have mostly been at a premium to CPO this year due to Indonesia's move to suspend exports of unprocessed Pome oil and used cooking oil (UCO) since 8 January , tightening the global supply of waste oils. Indonesia has yet to resume issuing export permits. The restrictions have since driven exporters to explore refining Pome oil for exports. Refined Pome oil exports totalled 440,000t in January-November, according to Kpler data. No refined Pome oil was shipped in 2024 prior to the export pause because exporters directly shipped unrefined material. Refined Pome oil has lower metals and impurities than unprocessed material and can be used for hydrotreating to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil or hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) with less processing than crude Pome oil. Argus launched the refined Pome oil fob Indonesia assessment on 15 October to reflect the value in this emerging export market, and it has since been priced above rival regional biofuels feedstock assessments. Indonesia's export pause was a key factor driving up waste oil prices in the region to three-year highs in September ( see chart ). The duration of Indonesia's ban on crude Pome oil and UCO exports remains uncertain, but the government may be tempted to maintain restrictions to keep more feedstocks available to expand domestic biofuels production. This would continue to limit seaborne supply and support prices on a fob basis. Speaking at IPOC2025, Indonesia's palm plantation fund (BPDP) head suggested exploring alternative waste feedstocks such as UCO for use in the B50 programme to reduce Indonesia's reliance on CPO as biodiesel feedstock. State-owned Pertamina is already trialling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production through co-processing UCO at its Cilacap refinery since the second quarter of 2025, and shipped about 32,000 litres of UCO-based HEFA-SPK in its first shipment in August . The country is targeting the production of 1mn kilolitres/yr SAF by 2030 . Plantation seizures may squeeze CPO output Palm oil production in Indonesia may be squeezed by the government's ongoing efforts to reclaim plantation lands it said were illegally acquired this year. The Indonesian government in January formed a forestry task force for this purpose and reclaimed over 3.3mn hectares of plantation land by August, according to its website. The land will be transferred to and managed by state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara, which was set up in February to oversee the confiscated land. Agrinas has been recruiting staff to operate its plantation business but the availability of harvesters still poses a challenge, it said in a press release on 1 December. Many in the sector expect the change in land management to reduce plantation efficiency starting in 2026. But the extent of yield and production losses caused by the land seizures remains uncertain, said industry analyst Thomas Mielke at IPOC2025. He estimated palm oil output in the country may decline to 49mn t in 2026 from 49.4mn t in 2025. Ministry officials at IPOC2025 did not comment on the ongoing palm plantation seizures. The collection and export of Pome oil from mills may also fall on the back of fewer fresh fruit bunches harvested from oil palm plantations due to the land seizures. Less CPO available for processing into palm olein for domestic cooking oil could also cause UCO supply to shrink. Traceability concerns continue to threaten demand Meanwhile, concerns surrounding Pome oil traceability have continued among European buyers this year, prompting some EU Member States including Portugal , Germany and Ireland to disincentivise Pome oil usage in their biofuels mandates. Most recently in October, the Dutch emissions authority (NEa) said that it will investigate the international Pome oil supply chain with a focus on "fraud risk", and that any findings could be used in policy recommendations. European Pome oil demand is currently expected to remain stable in the near-term at around 1.9mn t/yr, according to Argus Analytics, but removal of policy support by more markets in the new year could tip the balance. Higher demand for Annex IX Part A feedstocks under the RED III may drive other EU countries to absorb Pome oil volumes diverted from markets that have chosen to disincentivise the feedstock by removing it from the classification. By Malcolm Goh Asian waste oil prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU deforestation law may be delayed further: IPOC
EU deforestation law may be delayed further: IPOC
Singapore, 14 November (Argus) — The European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will likely face a second delay this year, said Anri Hadi, Indonesian ambassador to the EU at the 21st Indonesian palm oil conference (IPOC) on 13 November. A 12 November EU vote on whether to extend a six-month grace period for penalties and measures to be applied on medium to large firms — initiated last month — was inconclusive without a majority vote on the proposal, said Hadi. For medium and large enterprises, the EUDR will take effect on 30 December 2025, but a six-month grace period would apply on its enforcement, and for micro and small operators, the EUDR would apply from 30 December 2026 if this proposal were to be accepted. If member states do not agree to a grace period by 15 December, the EUDR would take effect on 30 December 2025 for large and medium companies and on 30 June 2026 for micro and small enterprises. Some member states instead voted to delay enforcement of the EUDR altogether by another year, to December 2026 for medium and large firms and June 2027 for small and micro firms. Under this proposal, there would be no grace period for enforcing the regulation after starting in 2026, Hadi said. Palm oil and some byproducts such as glycerol with 95pc or above purity are listed in Annex I of the EUDR, meaning exporters will have to submit traceability data to relevant government authorities under the EUDR to gain access to the EU market. Sustainability and enforcement guidelines still unclear Hadi called for sustainability standards such as the Indonesian sustainable palm oil (ISPO) certification to be recognised under the EUDR and for government-aligned guidance regarding geolocation data sharing requirements. But providing sustainability data to facilitate EUDR compliance is considered illegal under Indonesian law, said Indonesian vice minister of foreign affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno. Citing Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) licensing within the timber industry as an example, he said Indonesia could set up a similar licensing unit to provide relevant data to government authorities in the EU while retaining sustainability data domestically. Under proposed traceability requirements, smallholder farmers would be unable to comply with the regulations, Oegroseno added. Farmers subsequently selling product to larger mills would also impact the supply chain as these mills may export palm oil into Europe. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Forest ownership helps Brazilian rosin makers cut costs
Forest ownership helps Brazilian rosin makers cut costs
Sao Paulo, 13 November (Argus) — Brazilian gum rosin and gum turpentine producers sourcing pine oleoresin from their own forests are better positioned to navigate weaker rosin markets, participants said at the Brazilian Pine Chemicals Meeting in Sao Paulo on 13 November. Rising pine oleoresin prices and softening gum rosin demand at key markets such as Portugal have squeezed margins, participants said. Factories in Brazil often buy the raw material in the spot market from third-party producers. The percentage of pine oleoresin sourced from third-party pine trees versus the factories' own forests can vary. Fewer players have sizeable forest assets, and most rely on third-party volumes. Argus assessed Brazilian elliottii pine oleoresin prices on 4 November at 5,100-5,230 Brazilian reals/t ($965-990/t) at the forest for cash payments. With gum rosin prices at $1,030-1,150/t fob Brazil port, margins are tight and in some cases negative. Access to in-house oleoresin at slightly lower cost can ease margin pressure, a seller said. Gum rosin, a co-product of pine oleoresin distillation, is a key feedstock for rosin esters production in Portugal and Spain. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.