Q2 2024 fatty acids and alcohols outlook
This exclusive update delivers a concise overview of the fatty acids and alcohols markets, sharing insight into:
- Palm and lauric oil prices, analysis and outlook
- Glycerine quarterly contracts, supply & demand discussion and trade flow analysis
- Fatty alcohols quarterly outlook trends and in depth trade analysis
- Fatty acids price outlook, trade data and feedstock analysis
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US biofuel inputs hit multiyear highs on war, policy
US biofuel inputs hit multiyear highs on war, policy
New York, 20 March (Argus) — US feedstocks to make renewable diesel have risen to their highest prices of President Donald Trump's second term, buoyed not just by spiking prices in other energy markets but also by more supportive biofuel incentives. All major US renewable diesel feedstocks hit their highest prices in more than two years this month, according to Argus assessments, tracking energy values that have surged as Iran responds to US-Israeli strikes by attacking Middle East energy infrastructure and restricting access to the strait of Hormuz. Costlier oil makes alternatives like biofuels more attractive. But rising prices for animal fats and recycled cooking oil have also been driven in large part by biofuel policy, a signal that high prices could persist even if tensions in the Middle East ease. Front-month futures for soybean oil, a key renewable diesel input, have risen by 36pc so far this year, but unlike crude, most of those gains predate the war. That's good news for feedstock suppliers — including the agribusiness giants investing in new soybean and canola crush capacity to meet renewable diesel demand — but not so good for industries like food manufacturing that compete with biofuel plants for scarce inputs. Renewable diesel refineries can stomach high feedstock costs when biofuel incentives are strong but could struggle to pay current premiums if policy underwhelms. The Trump administration is potentially days away from finalizing biofuel blend mandates that have been proposed at record-high levels. The price of US credits generated from blending biomass-based diesel hit three-year highs earlier this month, supporting biorefining margins and signaling that traders expect supportive final quotas. US renewable diesel makers that cut output in 2025 and scheduled maintenance early this year are now raising production to meet demand, boosting feedstock costs in the process. The administration has said it expects to finalize new mandates this month, and traders have taken a White House event to celebrate agriculture next week as another sign that the quotas both support farmers and could arrive any day. That event was scheduled early this month and has no explicit biofuel focus, but biofuel producers were invited, according to sources familiar with the planning. Bullish sentiment ahead of the release is showing up in delivered feedstock prices. While soybean oil futures are up 7pc since their February close, common feedstocks delivered to the US Gulf coast are up by more ( see graph ). Used cooking oil delivered by rail or truck into the key biorefining region has risen by more than 14pc over the same time-frame to 73¢/lb, its highest since 2022. US tallow delivered by rail into the Gulf is likewise up by 14pc, partly because of a shrinking cattle herd and a labor strike at a major beef processing plant in Colorado. These gains have not extended to global alternatives, with Chinese export prices for used cooking oil up modestly this year and Brazilian tallow slightly down. This too reflects policy: a US tax credit crucial for biorefining margins starting this year is limited to fuel from North American feedstocks, making imports less attractive. Producers outside the US, such as Canada's Braya, have scooped up cheaper imported used cooking oil in recent months as US buyers retreat. But the current discounts could still appeal to US biorefineries looking for alternatives to pricey domestic options, especially coupled with fewer trade barriers after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's most expansive tariffs last month. Trump has since reinstated a 10pc charge on most trading partners, though this represents a significant reduction for suppliers such as Brazil, which had faced a more than 50pc US tariff on its beef tallow. Tallow for export at Brazilian ports was last discussed at roughly 30pc below Gulf coast delivered prices, while Australian tallow was around 25pc lower, leaving room for viable trade even after accounting for tariffs. Policy pitfalls Plenty can still change in policy, with the final biofuel quotas still under White House review. Oil refiners that have swayed officials on issues like Jones Act waivers are warning that the cost to meet record biofuel mandates would spill into already-rising retail fuel prices. A plan to make larger oil companies blend more biofuels to offset program exemptions granted to their smaller rivals is a particular focus of last-minute lobbying. Biofuel producers — popular in parts of the administration for soaking up demand for crops that otherwise depend on export markets — also see opportunity. A coalition of biomass-based diesel producers and feedstock suppliers wrote to Trump this week that strong biofuel mandates are one way to "counter global oil market disruptions". Any rethink would only "exacerbate the recent spike in diesel fuel prices", argued the groups that include Clean Fuels Alliance America. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam US Gulf feedstocks outpace futures ¢/lb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Less EU CTO supply meets soft rosin markets
Less EU CTO supply meets soft rosin markets
London, 6 March (Argus) — Weaker softwood pulp markets have reduced European crude tall oil (CTO) supply, but soft rosin markets remain a limiting factor for tall oil fractionators in 2026, sources told Argus . With tighter CTO availability in Europe, refiners have turned to US imports to meet rising demand for tall-oil-based fatty acids used in biofuels. Swedish and Finnish refiners imported 318,485t of US CTO in 2025 — the highest since 2010 — up from 218,160t in 2024 and 174,568t in 2023, Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show. Imports surged because of reduced Nordic tall oil supply, greater interest in higher-rosin fatty acid fractions such as crude fatty acids (CFA) for biofuels, and increased run rates at several fractionators. While European CTO imports from the US have risen, fractionation rates vary among companies depending on their rosin exposure, sourcing strategies and product mix, participants told Argus during meetings and site visits in Finland. "Rosin remains the limiting factor," CTO refiners said. Rosin is one of the main fractions produced during tall oil distillation. It is used in paper sizing, printing inks and as a feedstock for rosin derivatives. Rosin and derivative markets have faced declining demand in recent years because of falling paper and printing-ink use, and competition from cheaper and oversupplied hydrocarbon resins (HCR) in adhesive and road-marking applications. As a result, C5 HCR from China continues to land in Europe at discounts of several hundred euros on a delivered basis compared with pine-derived rosin derivatives, suppliers and adhesive formulators said. Some CTO refiners are running at higher rates because of firm biofuels demand and a product mix less dependent on rosin. Others have reduced fractionation because of changes in strategy or sourcing. Selling more fatty acids into biofuels generates more rosin as a co-product, adding to stock pressure in an already soft rosin markets. CTO refiners have explored reducing their reliance on rosin markets by using higher rosin levels in CFA. End-users can tolerate 8–20pc rosin in tall-oil-derived fractions such as CFA, which could ease some of the stock pressure, participants said. But higher rosin content makes it harder to produce 100pc HVO compared with other feedstock options, one participant noted. Lower run rates at some facilities, combined with higher CTO costs, resulted in firmer first-quarter tall oil fatty acid (TOFA) contract prices of €1,525–1,675/t delivered — a 5.8pc midpoint rise from €1,450–1,575/t in the fourth quarter of 2025. Lower-rosin European TOFA can also be used in biofuels, but its higher price relative to the higher-rosin CFA alternative limits sales into that sector. Even so, stronger demand for advanced feedstocks such as CTO and its derivatives under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) could support some TOFA use despite its structural premium over CFA. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia worse off under new US tariff plans: Minister
Australia worse off under new US tariff plans: Minister
Sydney, 23 February (Argus) — The US Trump administration's plan for a new 15pc global tariff will hamper Australia's recent uptick in trade to the country, Australia's federal trade minister Don Farrell said, while New Zealand's exporters may experience a net benefit. The US should work within the free trade agreement (FTA) it holds with Australia, Farrell said on 23 February, ahead of his visit to Los Angeles this week. His comments came after the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the country's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on 20 February, blocking US president Donald Trump's ability to extract concessions from trading partners and punish countries that reject his demands. The White House has responded by pledging to increase the US' global tariff from 10pc to 15pc , effectively increasing the cost of Australian goods in the US by 5pc. Trade with the US has increased since the "liberation day" tariffs were first imposed in April 2025, Farrell said, but this competitive advantage may be lost under the new policy. Tariffs that previously targeted specific countries, including the additional 40pc duty on some Brazilian products, have been reduced to 10pc since 20 February 2025. This puts Brazilian products, such as tallow, on the same tariff rate that Australia has long held, removing the advantage Australian suppliers previously held with US importers. The 15pc rate will not apply to Australia's beef exports, the Australian Meat Industry Council (AMIC) said. But sheep and goat meat exports face a 5pc tariff increase under the plan. The comparative advantage held by the nation's red meat exporters appears lost, the AMIC added. Beef volumes entering the US from Brazil and New Zealand appear to have declined in recent months, while shipments from Australia hit the highest monthly volume since January 2003 in November . The newly announced plan for further tariffs should provide impetus to Australia's long-stalled FTA negotiations with the EU, Farrell said. The FTA is held up on key agricultural market access issues, which has long hampered freer trade between the bloc and Australia. New Zealand better off New Zealand's exports to the US have faced a 15pc so-called reciprocal tariff since August 2025 , while competitors such as Australia, Argentina and the UK faced tariffs maintained at 10pc. New Zealand is now level on this measure apart from country-specific deals, business lobby ExportNZ said. The 15pc tariff imposed on many New Zealand exporters is unwarranted, New Zealand's trade minister Todd McClay said on 21 February, given the average tariff rate for to US goods entering New Zealand is 0.3pc. By Tom Major and Grace Dudley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
VAROPreem to buy Sweden’s tall oil refiner Sunpine
VAROPreem to buy Sweden’s tall oil refiner Sunpine
London, 20 February (Argus) — European renewable fuels producer VAROPreem has agreed to buy Swedish tall oil refiner Sunpine from forest firms Sveaskogs Forvaltning and Sodra, and from pine chemicals producer Lawter Europe. Sunpine is the world's largest producer of raw tall diesel, a key feedstock for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), VAROPreem said. The firm operates a 200,000 t/yr raw tall diesel plant in Pitea, Sweden, and refines crude tall oil (CTO), an Annex IX Part A feedstock under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Sunpine also makes pine-derived chemicals including rosin, turpentine and alpha-pinene. VAROPreem describes itself as Europe's second-largest and the world's sixth-largest renewable transport fuels producer. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close by the first half of 2026. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.